BTC $78,978.37 -2.82%
ETH $2,274.87 -3.76%
BNB $704.12 -7.04%
XRP $1.25 -5.81%
SOL $97.38 -5.05%
TRX $0.3589 +9.00%
DOGE $0.0762 -4.89%
ADA $0.1928 -6.79%
BCH $277.02 -4.58%
LINK $11.07 -6.68%
HYPE $92.77 +14.39%
AAVE $125.53 -7.67%
SUI $0.8834 -7.23%
XLM $0.1647 -5.14%
ZEC $1,270.48 -2.37%
AAPL $351.40 +1.96%
AMZN $230.57 -9.55%
GOOGL $282.22 -2.86%
MSFT $529.13 -5.26%
META $620.41 +0.28%
NVDA $210.66 -1.86%
TSLA $398.00 -0.99%
SNDK $1,288.04 -6.50%
INTC $72.19 -23.11%
SPCX $141.80 -1.75%
MU $903.66 -6.55%
AMD $534.41 -6.44%
BTC $78,978.37 -2.82%
ETH $2,274.87 -3.76%
BNB $704.12 -7.04%
XRP $1.25 -5.81%
SOL $97.38 -5.05%
TRX $0.3589 +9.00%
DOGE $0.0762 -4.89%
ADA $0.1928 -6.79%
BCH $277.02 -4.58%
LINK $11.07 -6.68%
HYPE $92.77 +14.39%
AAVE $125.53 -7.67%
SUI $0.8834 -7.23%
XLM $0.1647 -5.14%
ZEC $1,270.48 -2.37%
AAPL $351.40 +1.96%
AMZN $230.57 -9.55%
GOOGL $282.22 -2.86%
MSFT $529.13 -5.26%
META $620.41 +0.28%
NVDA $210.66 -1.86%
TSLA $398.00 -0.99%
SNDK $1,288.04 -6.50%
INTC $72.19 -23.11%
SPCX $141.80 -1.75%
MU $903.66 -6.55%
AMD $534.41 -6.44%

数据:BTC 触及关键支撑位,波动率降低但防御性仓位仍占主导

2026-06-19 17:41:01

ChainCatcher 消息,glassnode 发文表示,比特币(BTC)在重新测试 2 月低点后回落至重要支撑区域。期权市场数据显示,尽管价格接近关键水平,但隐含波动率已从近期高点明显回落,1 周隐含波动率从约 60% 降至 35%,整体波动率曲线同步下移,市场对未来不确定性的定价明显降温。

同时,25Δ偏度也从抛售期间的极端水平回落,短期限保护需求有所正常化,显示恐慌性对冲情绪正在减弱。不过,结构性防御仓位仍占主导。数据显示,短期限期权仍偏向下行保护,近一周看空期权成交占比约 28%,显著高于看多期权买入比例(24.1%)。

同时,1 个月隐含波动率已低于实际波动率,市场出现“隐含波动率低估现实波动”的情况。在 62,000 美元附近存在显著短 Gamma 集中区(约 18 亿美元规模),若价格进一步下探可能加速波动放大,而在 60,000 美元附近则存在一定长 Gamma 缓冲区。整体来看,尽管波动率降温,但市场仍处于偏防御的仓位结构之中。

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