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中东冲突将主导美国利率路径,风险偏向不降息

2026-04-30 13:44:41
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ChainCatcher 消息,据金十报道,富达国际高级全球宏观策略师 Max Stainton 在报告中表示,今年剩余时间美国利率前景将越来越取决于中东冲突的持续时间。富达的基准情景仍较市场定价略偏鸽派,预计即将上任的美联储主席沃什及委员会将整体倾向于缓解能源冲击对经济增长造成的损害。然而,随着霍尔木兹海峡长期关闭风险上升,能源价格冲击向更大范围通胀冲击蔓延、波及整体经济的风险已清晰可见。“我们仍预计今年会有一次降息,但风险显然偏向于全年不采取行动。”

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