Willy Woo: The market has priced in a quantum threat with a selling pressure of 4 million, and BTC price performance will continue to be overshadowed by gloom

Renowned analyst Willy Woo stated on the X platform that the 12-year valuation trend of Bitcoin relative to gold has recently been broken. BTC's relative valuation should be higher, but in reality, it has not been achieved, mainly due to a market awakening to the risks of quantum computing, leading to early pricing of potential issues.

Bitcoin is likely to be patched in the future through quantum-resistant signatures, but this does not solve the problem of approximately 4 million "lost" BTC (early lost private keys may be cracked by quantum computers) re-entering circulation. Willy Woo estimates a 75% probability that these lost Bitcoins will not be frozen through a protocol hard fork, so the market needs to account for the selling pressure of 4 million coins in advance.

Since MicroStrategy began accumulating BTC in 2020, the total accumulation by enterprises and ETFs is only 2.8 million BTC. These 4 million lost tokens are equivalent to 8 years of corporate accumulation, which will result in serious supply dilution. Before "Q-Day" (the day quantum computing threats materialize, expected in 5-15 years), BTC prices will continue to be affected by this cloud of uncertainty.