Report: Quantum computing may threaten the Bitcoin encryption system as early as 2030

According to The Block, quantum security startup Project Eleven released a report stating that the "Q-Day," when quantum computers could break modern encryption technology, may arrive as early as 2030, with a probability of occurring before 2033 "likely exceeding 50%." The report warns that the enhancement of quantum computing capabilities will not be a linear progression but rather a leap "from nothing to something, triggered at once." Currently, approximately 6.9 million BTC (worth over $56 billion) are at risk of quantum attacks under certain conditions.

In response to the aforementioned threat, several solutions have emerged in the industry: Paradigm researcher Dan Robinson proposed using timestamp proofs to help holders recover assets on future quantum-safe versions of the Bitcoin network; the BIP-361 proposal by Jameson Lopp and others suggests establishing a multi-year migration window to guide users in transferring funds to quantum-resistant addresses. Google has also advanced its quantum-resistant encryption migration target to 2029.