JPMorgan: The Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged is the baseline scenario, which is most favorable for U.S. stocks

According to Jinshi reports, JPMorgan expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged, with "maintaining rates but leaning hawkish" (probability of 50%) as the baseline scenario, which could lead to the S&P 500 index remaining flat or declining by 0.5%. Meanwhile, "maintaining rates but leaning dovish" (probability of 28%) is seen as the most favorable scenario for the market, potentially driving the index up by as much as 1%. A 25 basis point rate hike (probability of 20%) could result in the S&P 500 index declining by 1.5% to 2%.