QCP Capital: BTC Enters Non-Farm Payroll Data Window

QCP Capital's market weekly report shows that after Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh's speech in Jackson Hole, the probability of a rate hike in September rose from 35% to 70%. BTC fell approximately 2.5% in a single day, and after nine consecutive days of net inflow, the ETF recorded a net outflow of $202 million. However, the dollar failed to maintain a hawkish pricing, with the DXY falling below 99.5, and gold, silver, and BTC all regained their losses.

On the Treasury side, on September 9, the first long-end liquidity support operation will be launched, with the purchase limit raised to at least $4 billion (previously $2 billion). The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond auction on August 30 was reported at 5.216%, the highest since 2001, and the market will closely monitor whether this operation can effectively improve long-end liquidity.

In terms of inflation, July PCE was reported at 3.7% (core 3.3%), CPI at 3.4% (core 2.5%), and Brent crude oil rose about 10% in a week due to attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and a force majeure event in Qatar LNG, with inflationary pressures continuing. Waller stated that if the data continues to trend as it has over the next two weeks, it would support a pause in rate hikes. Coupled with the ADP employment data showing only 38,000 jobs added (the weakest since January), the probability of a rate hike in September has fallen to 45-50%.