1. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics

Interest rate hike expectations rapidly rise, Federal Reserve meeting begins today

• The Federal Reserve will hold a monetary policy meeting from September 15 to 16, U.S. time, during which it will update economic forecasts and the interest rate dot plot.
• A survey released by Reuters on September 14 showed that out of 101 economists, 86 expect a 25 basis point rate hike to 3.75%--4.00%; this is still a survey expectation and not an announced policy decision.
• The interest rate decision will be announced at 02:00 Beijing time on September 17, with a press conference by the Chair at 02:30. The market is focused on the subsequent rate hike path and inflation assessment.

Market Impact: For U.S. tech stocks and crypto assets, the key is not just whether there will be a rate hike this time, but how high and for how long rates need to be maintained. If the policy path is tighter than expected, valuations and financing costs will remain under pressure; if the statement does not further strengthen tightening signals, some risk premiums may decline.

International Commodities

Key oil transport routes in Saudi Arabia disrupted, negotiation signals have not eliminated supply risks

• The Saudi East-West oil pipeline has been shut down following a drone attack, impacting oil transport routes bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
• A meeting scheduled for Monday between Gulf countries and Iran regarding shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has been postponed, with the resumption time still pending further coordination.
• After Trump expressed willingness to discuss agreements with Iran, oil prices retraced some intraday gains on Monday, but shipping and infrastructure risks remain unresolved.

Market Impact: Uncertainty in energy supply continues to affect inflation expectations. High oil prices benefit some upstream producers' revenues but increase costs for airlines, logistics, and manufacturing; for the overall market, whether energy shocks further transmit to core prices will affect the duration of central bank tightening.

Macroeconomic Policy

Trump supports AI development, regulatory discussions heat up, tech stock performance diverges

• On September 14, Trump publicly supported AI and data center development, opposing a halt to the entire industry due to risk concerns.
• Jensen Huang spoke with Trump at the All-In Summit, stating that rapid innovation and AI safety should not be viewed as mutually exclusive.
• Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer stated that he is discussing bipartisan AI regulatory legislation with Democratic lawmakers; related discussions do not equate to new restrictions being in effect.

Market Impact: The market is beginning to differentiate more finely between the profit prospects of AI training hardware, enterprise applications, and security protections. Controversies over the pace of model development may affect hardware order expectations, while rising security demand provides opportunities for cybersecurity companies; ultimately, it will depend on customer budgets and order changes, rather than solely judging winners based on policy statements.

# 2. Market Review

Commodity & Forex Performance

• Spot Gold: Approximately $4,285.96 per ounce.
• Spot Silver: Approximately $62.94 per ounce.
• WTI Crude Oil Futures: Reference price approximately $102.55 per barrel, October 2026 contract.
• Brent Crude Oil Futures: Reference price approximately $106.87 per barrel, November 2026 contract.
• U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): Approximately 99.49 points.

Driving Factors Analysis: Both major oil benchmarks are above $100 per barrel, with supply risks and diplomatic progress remaining key variables. Precious metals face dual influences from safe-haven demand and interest rate hike expectations, and rising geopolitical risks cannot simply be equated with guaranteed increases in gold prices. Economic data released by China today will also provide new observational basis for industrial demand.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: Approximately 77,960.86 USDT, up 1.45% in 24 hours.
• ETH: Approximately 2,513.68 USDT, up 1.20% in 24 hours.

Main Capital Observation: Corporate Accumulation and Volume-Price: The 24-hour trading volume for BTC and ETH trading pairs in the Bitget spot market was approximately 241 million and 250 million USDT, respectively, with both prices recording increases. Among disclosed corporate purchases, Strive announced on September 14 that it had accumulated 469 BTC from September 8 to 11, with an average cost of approximately $77,954, corresponding to a total cost of about $36.6 million, bringing total holdings to 25,000 BTC as of September 11; Bitmine announced on the same day that it had accumulated 27,180 ETH last week, holding 5,956,378 ETH as of September 13. Corporate accumulation coexists with short-term rebounds, but the trading volume of a single platform does not equate to net buying, and weekly accumulation cannot directly prove that all market funds have unanimously turned bullish.

Driving Factors Analysis: BTC was slightly stronger than ETH during this 24-hour window, but both still face volatility from the Federal Reserve's decision. The aforementioned corporate purchases reflect some long-term allocation demand; whether the rebound can continue will depend on whether subsequent accumulation persists and the strength of spot buying after policy events.

U.S. Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: Closed at 52,421.20 points, down 0.29%.
• S&P 500: Closed at 7,619.96 points, down 0.48%.
• Nasdaq: Closed at 26,186.41 points, down 0.56%.

Tech Giants Dynamics

• NVDA: $210.96, down 3.36%.
• AAPL: $333.08, up 0.24%.
• MSFT: $505.41, up 1.97%.
• GOOGL: $349.39, up 3.22%.
• AMZN: $253.54, down 1.26%.
• META: $665.60, up 2.71%.
• TSLA: $358.97, down 1.77%.

Performance Summary and Driving Analysis: Among the seven giants, four rose and three fell, with Google A, Meta, and Microsoft leading the gains, while Nvidia performed the weakest. Under the AI safety controversy, the stock price performance of hardware and platform companies showed significant divergence, and tech stocks were not uniformly sold off. Apple rose slightly, while Amazon and Tesla fell; against the backdrop of rising interest rate hike expectations, the market is repricing the profit realization capabilities and capital expenditure risks of different businesses.

Sector Movement Observation

AI Chips: Controversy over Model Development Pace Suppresses Hardware Expectations

• Representative Stock: Nvidia (NVDA) down 3.36%.
• Driving Factors: Discussions in the AI industry about slowing down frontier model development have raised market concerns about the pace of computing power investment. The current reflection is an adjustment of expectations and cannot be directly equated with chip customers having reduced orders.

Cybersecurity: AI Risk Protection Becomes a Focus

• Representative Stocks: CrowdStrike (CRWD) up 13.85%, Palo Alto Networks (PANW) up 13.09%.
• Driving Factors: The AI safety controversy has heightened market attention to corporate protection needs. CrowdStrike announced on the same day that it is expanding its cooperation with HCLTech, integrating Falcon Guardian with the latter's AI security and resilience services, providing concrete business progress for this theme.

Banks: Investment Banking and Trading Business Expectations Under Scrutiny

• Representative Stock: Bank of America (BAC) down 5.14%.
• Driving Factors: Management expects third-quarter investment banking fee income to decline year-on-year, with sales and trading income roughly flat. The market is focused on whether rising interest rates can bring sufficient interest income improvement and the offsetting effect of slowing financing activity.

# 3. In-Depth Analysis of U.S. Stocks

1. Nvidia (NVDA) - Stock price down 3.36%, AI expansion expectations face pressure test

Event Overview: Nvidia closed at $210.96 on September 14, down 3.36%. The debate over whether frontier AI development should slow continues to ferment, with Jensen Huang stating at the All-In Summit that innovation and safety should not be viewed as opposing options.
Market Interpretation: According to media reports, Bernstein believes that the market may have overestimated the impact of a slowdown in R&D on hardware demand, with established capital budgets and inference demand still providing support. This is an institutional judgment and does not eliminate the risk of order adjustments; a drop in stock price does not equate to the company having lowered its revenue guidance.
Investment Insight: Focus on whether major customers adjust capital expenditures, whether inference demand can be converted into new orders, and whether there are changes in delivery pace and revenue guidance. Distinguishing between emotional shocks and actual order changes is key to judging subsequent trends.

2. CrowdStrike (CRWD) - Surge of 13.85%, AI security collaboration provides business grounding

Event Overview: CrowdStrike closed at $235.38 on September 14, up 13.85%. The company announced an expansion of cooperation with HCLTech, integrating Falcon Guardian with HCLTech's AI security services to protect corporate AI applications, models, agents, identities, and data.
Market Interpretation: As AI both improves productivity and expands potential attack surfaces, corporate protection budgets may gain new sources of growth. The collaboration helps expand service reach, but the announcement did not disclose contract amounts, so the scope of cooperation cannot be directly converted into new revenue; other cybersecurity stocks also rose on the same day, and sector sentiment may be one influencing factor.
Investment Insight: Subsequent focus on customer conversion, AI security product adoption rates, net new annual recurring revenue, and cash flow. After a significant rise, sustained operational data is needed to support higher growth expectations.

3. Bank of America (BAC) - Down 5.14%, investment banking guidance reveals another side of rising interest rates

Event Overview: Bank of America closed at $59.47 on September 14, down 5.14%. CEO Brian Moynihan expects third-quarter investment banking fee income to be between $1.6 billion and $1.8 billion, down from about $2 billion in the same period last year; sales and trading income is expected to be roughly flat year-on-year.
Market Interpretation: Banks do not necessarily benefit from higher interest rates. In addition to improving loan yield, deposit costs, financing demand, and transaction completion pace must also be considered; this guidance reminds investors that non-interest income may become a constraint on profit performance.
Investment Insight: Focus on actual fee income, net interest income, deposit costs, and credit losses in the third quarter. It needs to be confirmed whether the weakness in investment banking is a timing issue for revenue recognition or a more sustained change in demand.

# 4. Market & Project Dynamics

1. According to media reports, Johann Kerbrat, General Manager of Robinhood Crypto, stated that Stock Tokens are backed by real stocks held in custody on a 1:1 basis, and holders can receive dividends and economic equivalents of corporate actions. Redemption of physical stocks and voting rights are still in planning, and existing token rights cannot be equated with full shareholder rights.
2. The U.S. House Financial Services Committee will review H.R. 8957, the "2026 U.S. Reserve Modernization Act," on September 16. The official agenda includes this bill, but the committee's review does not equate to final approval by Congress, nor does it mean that the government has initiated new Bitcoin purchases.
3. Cryptocurrency data company Kaiko announced on September 14 that a strategic investment led by S&P Global has expanded its Series B funding to $110 million. The funds will be used to strengthen its core data business and expand products and services, reflecting the ongoing investment of traditional financial institutions in digital asset data, analytics, and index infrastructure.

Market Calendar Today

Data Release Schedule

All times are in Beijing time (UTC+8); market attention is based on the editor's judgment.
Time Country/Region Event Market Attention

|------------|----|-------------------------------------|------| | September 15 09:30 | China | August sales price data for residential properties in 70 large and medium cities | ⭐⭐⭐ | | September 15 10:00 | China | August industrial added value, total retail sales of consumer goods, and data on fixed asset investment from January to August | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | | September 15 20:15 | United States | ADP weekly employment data update | ⭐⭐⭐ | | September 15 20:30 | United States | September New York Fed manufacturing index | ⭐⭐⭐ |

Important Event Preview

• Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision: Announced at 02:00 on September 17, with a press conference at 02:30. Focus on interest rate decision, dot plot, and inflation forecast.
• Bitcoin Reserve Related Bill Review: At 22:00 on September 16, the U.S. House Financial Services Committee will hold a review meeting, with the agenda including H.R. 8957; pay attention to amendments and voting results.
• AI Policy Discussion: The White House and Congress's follow-up statements on AI safety and development pace may continue to impact the chip, cloud computing, and cybersecurity sectors.

Institutional Views:

In related reports on September 15, JPMorgan strategist Mislav Matejka reiterated that while oil prices and interest rate pressures suppress valuations, corporate earnings can still support U.S. stocks, and it is unwise to turn overly pessimistic based solely on macro concerns. Bernstein believes that discussions about a slowdown in AI development are not sufficient to prove a fundamental reversal in hardware demand. Both focus their judgments on earnings and actual demand rather than denying short-term volatility risks.

Disclaimer: The above content is for market information reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Quotes are subject to market changes; please refer to market conditions at the time of trading.