Mozilla: The performance gap of AI models between the U.S. and China has narrowed to approximately 4.4 months

According to Ars Technica, Mozilla's latest "State of Open Source AI" report states that the performance gap between the U.S. closed-source cutting-edge models and China's open-source weight models has narrowed to about 4.4 months. Open-source models represented by Moonshot AI's Kimi K3 are only three points behind Anthropic Fable 5 in the comprehensive score of the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, but the cost is only about 30% of that.

METR calculations show that the strongest closed-source models can reliably complete human expert tasks lasting about 12 hours, while the strongest open-source models can currently reliably complete tasks lasting about 7 hours. It is expected that in about 4 months, open-source models will catch up to the current closed-source level. Mozilla believes that most organizations should default to using open-source models and only pay a premium for closed-source models in scenarios requiring specialized, high-intensity retrieval and long context. Paying for cutting-edge artificial intelligence models costs five times that of regular purchases, but it provides a 4-month first-mover advantage.