Huobi HTX Chief Analyst Cloud: The rejection of the clear bill is a one-time shock to the price and a continuous pressure on the valuation

Huobi HTX Chief Analyst Cloud stated that after the clear bill was blocked in the Senate procedural vote, Bitcoin fell from the $77,800 level to $74,910. This round of selling pressure is event-driven, and historically similar shocks are usually digested within 5 to 10 trading days. The actual cost of the bill's failure falls in terms of timing: Congress is on recess this month, the midterm elections in November, effectively pushing the legislative window to 2027, with institutional incremental businesses such as bank custody, brokerage distribution, and tokenized securities collectively postponed by a year. The target of this pressure is valuation, and the price response is one-time.

Among the factors affecting the single-day decline, the bill accounts for about 60% to 70%, while macro factors account for 30% to 40%; when viewed on the scale of the entire correction, the ratio reverses to 70% macro and 30% bill. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stands at 5.005%, oil prices surged to $105, and interest rate hike expectations have reignited, forming the main pricing line for this week, with the bill merely pushing the already accumulated selling pressure. The bill is the fuse, while interest rates are the explosives. Coinbase fell by 10%, Circle dropped by 11%, significantly higher than Bitcoin's decline, indicating that the market does not believe the bill's failure has harmed Bitcoin's value storage attribute, and ETF funds and institutional allocations are still providing support.

What is under pressure is the legislative premium for compliant business operations: the excessive gains of crypto stocks over the past few months largely hinged on the anticipated surge in trading volume, institutional custody, and stablecoin adoption after the bill's passage, and this premium has now been liquidated. Crypto stocks are essentially high-duration, high-leverage derivatives of Bitcoin; a 3% fluctuation in Bitcoin is amplified layer by layer through trading volume, fees, and reserve earnings, ultimately reflecting as a 10% decline in stock prices.