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After the Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision, the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in October is 40.1%

2026-09-17 05:44:36

According to CME's "FedWatch," after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates as expected in September, the probability of maintaining the interest rate at 3.75%-4.00% in the October meeting is 59.5%, the probability of a 25 basis point increase is 40.1%, and the probability of a 50 basis point increase is 0.5%.

The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining the interest rate at 3.75%-4.00% until December is 16.7%, the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 54.0%, the probability of a cumulative increase of 50 basis points is 28.9%, and the probability of a cumulative increase of 75 basis points is 0.3%.

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