Galaxy: Polymarket 69.2% retail account loss

Galaxy Research released a report titled "The Behavior of Polymarket Traders," with data compiled by Stork, based on approximately 2.9 million retail accounts defined by trading frequency on the Polymarket international platform. The report states that since its launch in 2020, the platform has facilitated 1.27 billion orders, involving 3.07 million wallets, with a nominal amount of 82.8 billion USD. 125,429 accounts that placed more than 50 orders on active days were excluded, accounting for 4.1% of accounts but contributing 80.8% of orders and 41% of nominal trading volume.

The report shows that 69.2% of retail accounts are below breakeven, with total losses of 338.9 million USD. The median retail account lost about 3 USD, with half of the accounts falling between -36.64 USD and +0.40 USD. The proportion of accounts that did not trade again within 30 days after a loss is 15.2%, while after a profit it is 6.1%. The excluded automated accounts collectively made a profit of 246.8 million USD. The median position for profit-makers is 13.96 USD, while for loss-makers it is 10 USD.

44.1% of traders concentrated over 60% of their activity on a single theme. Sports specialists account for 47% of all specialists, with a profit ratio of 25.1%, the lowest among all themes; technology and science specialists have a profit ratio of 41.2%. The report covers the entire history of the international platform and mentions that the platform will introduce taker fees in early 2026. At a price point of 50 cents, crypto market takers pay 1.75 USD for a position of 100 shares or 50 USD, accounting for approximately 3.5% of the invested capital.