Darkfost responds to the view that a 20% correction in the US stock market will trigger BTC to plummet to $10,000: the prediction is too extreme and lacks historical basis

Recently, there has been a viewpoint in the community that a 20% correction in the US stock market would trigger Bitcoin to plummet to $10,000. Crypto analyst Darkfost published an analysis indicating that if Bitcoin falls to $10,000, it would represent a decline of about 87% from the current price and a retracement of about 92% from its historical peak. Historically, Bitcoin has only experienced a maximum retracement of over 92% in 2011; the maximum retracements in 2015, 2019, 2022, and 2026 were 82.5%, 82.6%, 74.4%, and 54.2%, respectively.

Darkfost further pointed out that during a correction of about 19.53% in the S&P 500 index, Bitcoin fell by about 80% in 2018. However, in April 2025, when the S&P 500 index also corrected by over 19%, Bitcoin only dropped by about 22%. Therefore, directly linking a 20% correction in the US stock market to Bitcoin falling to $10,000 lacks sufficient historical data support.