Analysis: Bitcoin has broken the trend pattern before the last three U.S. midterm elections, with the current price 5.2% above the 200-day moving average

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin's market performance before the 2026 U.S. midterm elections has broken the trend observed in the previous three elections. As of November 3, Bitcoin was priced at approximately $76,990, about 5.2% higher than the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) of $73,169, indicating that its long-term trend remains above the average.

In contrast, during the U.S. midterm elections in 2014, 2018, and 2022, Bitcoin's price was approximately 35%, 9%, and 22% below the 200-day average, respectively, all during bear market phases. The report noted that although Bitcoin broke through $126,000 in October 2025, the current bear market has seen relatively shallow declines, mainly concentrated in January and February of this year.

Martin Lee, head of research at DWF Labs, stated that historical data shows Bitcoin typically exhibits volatility or slight weakness in the initial months following midterm elections, but has achieved gains in the subsequent 12 months. However, short-term trends may still be influenced by election results, ETF fund flows, U.S. employment data, and geopolitical risks.

Additionally, Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility index BVIV has broken through a descending triangle pattern, indicating an increase in market expectations for short-term volatility.