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LINK $8.44 +0.66%
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Analysis: The profit supply ratio of Bitcoin is approaching 60%, but it is still too early to confirm a bull market

The overall profitability status of the Bitcoin market is improving, but on-chain data shows that it is still insufficient to confirm that a new bull market has begun, and there remains a risk of another decline. CryptoQuant data shows that the Bitcoin Supply in Profit has risen to 57.5%. This indicator represents the proportion of BTC supply in the current market where the price is above the holding cost, which has significantly rebounded from the low of 46.2% on June 30, 2026, and is currently close to 60%.However, the recovery of the profitable supply ratio still requires continuous verification. Historical cycles show that the true end of a bear market usually requires two conditions to be met simultaneously: first, the 30-day simple moving average of the Long-Term Holder Profit and Loss Ratio (LTH-SOPR) must remain above 1 for an extended period without falling below it; second, the Bitcoin Supply in Profit must stabilize above 64%. Analysts indicate that this cycle has previously experienced a "false breakout." From April 28 to June 1 of this year, the average LTH-SOPR was above 1 for 35 consecutive days, while the profitable supply ratio once rose to 67%, but the market subsequently declined again. Currently, the Long-Term Holder 30-day SMA indicator has been below 1 for over 50 consecutive days, which remains an important risk signal for assessing the strength of market recovery. Although the BTC profitable supply ratio is improving, the market needs further confirmation of the behavior of long-term holders and changes in the profit structure to determine whether the current rebound truly marks the beginning of a new upward cycle.

Slow Fog Cosine: Claude Code exposes high-risk security vulnerabilities, malicious configuration files may silently execute commands

The founder of Slow Fog, Yu Xian, retweeted a tweet on the X platform regarding the potential poisoning attack risks of Claude Code and published an analysis of the poisoning attack details targeting Grok Build CLI and Claude Code CLI.It pointed out that the security mechanisms of Grok Build CLI are not unified, with different code paths having different trust assumptions, creating gaps that serve as channels for attackers. Attackers may execute arbitrary commands through malicious project configuration files without the user's knowledge, thereby stealing API keys, cloud credentials, or controlling local devices.Researchers constructed a testing environment and found that on Mac systems, if Claude Code is affected, executing specific test commands can trigger the local calculator to launch, proving the existence of potential command execution risks.If the attack is successful, attackers may further steal API keys from AI services like Claude and OpenAI, resulting in account cost losses, gain access to servers and data by obtaining cloud service credentials from AWS, Alibaba Cloud, Tencent Cloud, modify code repositories to implant backdoors, and use local devices as jump points to attack corporate internal networks. It is reported that the related vulnerabilities have existed for a year.

Cambridge Research: The United States hosts about 31% of Ethereum nodes, with over 1/3 of the nodes offline or affecting final confirmation

The latest research from the Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance shows that approximately 31% of Ethereum node activity is located in the United States, with about 39% distributed in the EU region excluding the UK, indicating that the geographical distribution of Ethereum nodes is still relatively concentrated in Western countries. The research leader, Alexander Neumuller, stated that the current node distribution is not concentrated in a single country but primarily relies on a few cloud service providers, including Hetzner, Amazon AWS, and OVH.It is noteworthy that the Ethereum network does not require half of the validators to fail for issues to arise; when more than one-third of validators go offline simultaneously, the network may be unable to complete the finalization of block checkpoints. Neumuller pointed out that nodes and validators do not have a one-to-one correspondence; a single node may run multiple validators, making it currently impossible to accurately assess the actual impact of a specific node or service provider failure on the validation network. Additionally, the research reassessed the energy consumption situation after Ethereum's Merge. The data shows that Ethereum's current annual energy consumption is approximately 7.9 GWh, equivalent to about 1 megawatt of continuous power, which is only about 0.02% of the pre-Merge level, with energy consumption decreasing by approximately 99.98%. Currently, the proportion of sustainable energy used by the Ethereum network exceeds 56%, higher than the global average. The research also pointed out that the concentration of client software is another potential risk; if a dominant client has a vulnerability, it could affect a large number of network participants. The report was published by the Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance, with support from the Ethereum Foundation.

Data: Short-term Bitcoin holders still dominate buying pressure, ETF funds have seen a return but the trend reversal cannot be confirmed

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated that the recently launched "Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Realized Pressure Model" shows that the buying and selling pressure from short-term holders is slightly cooling down, but buying power remains dominant. This model measures the changes in market bullish and bearish forces by comparing the realized buying pressure and selling pressure of short-term holders. During a bear market phase, this indicator can serve as a contrarian signal: when prices approach local lows, buyers are usually more active; when approaching local highs, selling pressure tends to increase. In the past 24 hours, the model has not shown any trend reversal signals. The latest hourly data shows that the buying pressure score is 28.57, slightly down from the previous day's 28.98; the selling pressure score is 22.62, a slight decrease from the previous 22.68. Currently, buyers are still leading sellers by about 5.94 percentage points.Overall, market buying pressure has cooled down, but short-term holders still maintain a buying advantage. Meanwhile, the funding situation in the Bitcoin ETF market has slightly improved. Following eight consecutive weeks of outflows, the ETF market recently recorded a net inflow of approximately $197.4 million. However, Adler pointed out that this scale is insufficient to confirm a reversal in institutional demand trends. Currently, the 30-day fund flow momentum for ETFs remains deeply negative, at about -$4.73 billion, and the cumulative fund size has fallen from a peak of about $62 billion to around $51 billion, indicating some improvement in short-term funds, but institutional buying demand has not fully recovered. Axel Adler expects that next week the market will face several important data and events, including further developments in the Middle East situation, the impact of the US-Iran conflict on energy supply, as well as earnings reports from major US banks, speeches from Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh, the June Consumer Price Index (CPI), the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, retail sales, and real estate market data.

1confirmation Founder: The next round of user growth in the crypto market may be driven by the tokenization of RWA

Nick Tomaino, founder of 1confirmation, stated on the X platform that bringing real-world assets (RWA) on-chain will become an important direction for driving the next phase of development in the cryptocurrency industry and is expected to lead to large-scale consumer adoption. The core value of bringing RWA on-chain lies in enabling global users to access asset classes that were previously difficult to obtain. "Global accessibility" has always been one of the most attractive features of the cryptocurrency industry and is also a key reason for the success of crypto assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.Nick Tomaino believes that crypto assets that drive new behaviors and are built on concepts that go beyond mere monetary value will continue to exist in the long term. However, as the market gradually realizes that the cost of creating tokens is close to zero, the model of relying solely on token issuance to drive price increases is difficult to sustain. The growth cycle of many "speculative tokens" is coming to an end, and the market will enter a new growth phase driven by tokens backed by real assets. Currently, stablecoins have become the most mature case of RWA applications, and in the coming year, the on-chainization of assets such as stocks, commodities, government bonds, corporate bonds, and real estate is expected to accelerate further.Nick Tomaino mentioned that on-chain physical collectibles (such as sports cards and jerseys) could become one of the most worthwhile directions for building and investing in RWA today. As the speculative-driven token cycle gradually recedes, on-chain assets supported by real assets and practical use cases will be key to attracting the next batch of users into the cryptocurrency market.

Detailed explanation of the security item change event released by Gate: Confirm that the applicant has a good grasp of highly matching external information and is advancing on-chain analysis and asset tracking procedures

Gate recently released a detailed verification statement regarding the security item changes and fund loss incident reported by customer 9****6. After an internal review, the platform confirmed that the applicant submitted materials highly matching the customer's account, including Email, phone number, real-name information, transaction records, and Alipay screen recordings. The platform pointed out that the Alipay screen recording required access to the customer's Alipay account and successfully passed multiple identity verifications, indicating that the applicant not only possessed account information but also obtained the customer's external real-name information, Alipay account, and device permissions in advance.The platform emphasized that its security unbinding review implements a four-fold verification process of "multi-channel advance notification + system risk control preliminary screening + manual multi-layer review + time protection." After notifying the customer through dual channels, the application was processed only after waiting two days without objections, and a 24-hour withdrawal prohibition protection was imposed after modification. Upon investigation, there were no information leakage logs within the platform, and some sensitive identity information provided by the applicant was external information previously unknown to the platform.Regarding fund recovery, the platform has sorted out the flow of funds and collaborated with multiple departments to conduct on-chain analysis and asset tracking, currently coordinating with third parties like Tether to advance the freezing process, and will cooperate with judicial investigations in the future. The platform advises customers to conduct comprehensive security reinforcement on their devices and expresses regret that the customer did not contact the platform within the three-day notification period.
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