prediction

According to CoinDesk, Utah has filed criminal charges against the prediction market platform Kalshi (KalshiEX LLC) and its co-founders Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, claiming they illegally promoted gambling in the state.The prosecution has brought a total of 14 charges, including 1 felony for alleged ongoing illegal activity, 12 charges for promoting online gambling, and 1 misdemeanor for gambling. The basis for the prosecution is evidence collected by an undercover investigator from the Utah Attorney General's Office.

According to Bloomberg, Sarah Court, the chair of the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC), stated at a parliamentary hearing that the agency has not received any applications submitted by prediction market operators. Prediction market platforms like Polymarket may face strict regulation in Australia, and any application for an operating license will also undergo rigorous scrutiny.Sarah Court pointed out that the trading mechanisms of prediction markets are similar to the binary options that have been banned in Australia, characterized by a win-or-lose outcome, and the trading subjects are often unrelated to investment or financial markets. Although Australian users can directly access relevant overseas platforms, they are not protected by local financial regulations, making it difficult to obtain dispute resolution and customer fund protection measures.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the "Bitcoin October Price Prediction" event on the prediction market Polymarket, the "Yes" option in the sub-market "Below $80,000" experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, dropping from 78.5% an hour ago to the current 59.5% (a fluctuation of 19%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction event "Bitcoin October Price Prediction" on Polymarket, the "Yes" option for the sub-market "82,500 USD" experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, soaring from 55.5% an hour ago to the current 77.5% (a fluctuation of 22%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to Cointelegraph, the prediction market platform Kalshi has set a deposit limit of $2,500 per month for users aged 18 to 20, which is one of its new restrictions to curb high-risk trading among young adults.

The prediction market platform Myriad announced that due to the administrator wallet being compromised, 10 prediction markets have been voided. According to the official statement, the holders on both sides of the affected markets will receive automatic refunds calculated at the price before the attack, but bonuses already received will be deducted.Myriad is a prediction market platform that allows users to bet on the outcomes of real-world events. After the administrator wallet was compromised, the platform decided to void the related markets and promised automatic refunds to the holders. The refunds will be calculated based on the price before the attack, and bonuses already received will be deducted from the refunds.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction event "Elon Musk Tweet Count Prediction" on Polymarket, the "Yes" option in the sub-market "320-339" has experienced significant fluctuations in winning probability, soaring from 56% an hour ago to the current 71.5% (a fluctuation of 15.5%). Please note the impact of relevant breaking news.

According to reports from Lei Feng Network · Whale Rhino, the AI prediction engine company Prophetlab has completed tens of millions in seed round financing, jointly invested by institutions including Ivy Capital. The company was established less than four months ago, and its prediction engine, Prophet Engine, has topped the overall list of FutureX released by ByteDance Seed, receiving millions in commercial orders.Prophetlab's early project utilized AI large models to predict World Cup outcomes, successfully forecasting the final results and the top four teams, with some models achieving an accuracy rate of about 75%. The team consists of AI PhDs and FinTech Masters from domestic and international universities. Founding members have participated in the training of billion-scale models such as Alibaba's Qianwen and Tencent's Hunyuan, and have collaborated with Professor Yan Junchi's team from Shanghai Jiao Tong University in industry-academia-research cooperation. The company is about to release the Investor's Last Exam list, focusing on commercial predictions.

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announced a memorandum of understanding with the NBA to jointly maintain the integrity of professional basketball events in prediction markets. According to the agreement, both parties will share information, maintain regular communication on integrity matters, and collaborate to ensure that relevant markets are fair and transparent. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig stated that the NBA, along with MLB and NHL, has taken a responsible step to protect sports integrity and market participants from abuses such as insider trading and fraud, and thanked NBA President Adam Silver for prioritizing the integrity of professional basketball and the U.S. financial markets.The agreement reflects that betting on sports event outcomes is rapidly migrating to CFTC-regulated platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, where users can trade event contracts based on real-world outcomes. Such memorandums of understanding with regulatory agencies aim to establish channels for marking suspicious activities. Previously, the NHL became the first major league to authorize trademarks for prediction markets, while MLB signed an integrity agreement after collaborating with Polymarket. The NBA's involvement is particularly noteworthy, as the league is still affected by one of the largest betting scandals in recent years: in October 2025, an FBI operation arrested Miami Heat guard Terry Rozier and a coach, accusing them of participating in a gambling scheme to manipulate game outcomes to influence betting.This collaboration comes amid a jurisdictional dispute over prediction markets. The CFTC recently defined event contracts as swaps within its jurisdiction and excluded casino-style gambling; the lawsuit between the NFL and Kalshi has drawn the attention of the Supreme Court, with the NFL to date refusing to sign related agreements, contrasting with its cooperation with the NBA. Bernstein analysts expect that by the end of this decade, prediction markets could generate billions of dollars in revenue, with new participants continuously entering, and Blockchain.com is one of the latest seeking CFTC approval to offer event contracts.

According to The Defiant, the NBA announced Kalshi as its preferred prediction market exchange.This partnership will provide Kalshi with official league data and NBA brand licensing, while Polymarket also received the same preferred designation.

According to Dune data, the nominal trading volume of cryptocurrency-related event contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket reached $2.7 billion last week, setting a new historical high. Among them, Bitcoin short-term fluctuation contracts were particularly active, with Kalshi's 15-minute Bitcoin price prediction contracts seeing single transaction volumes exceeding $1 million. Some traders even used trading bots to seize opportunities just seconds before the contracts expired.Currently, cryptocurrency has become the second largest trading category on the two platforms, second only to sports. Cryptocurrency trading platforms such as Coinbase, Crypto.com, Gemini, and Kraken are expanding their businesses by applying for relevant licenses or collaborating with prediction markets. Meanwhile, the decline in spot trading volume on centralized exchanges has also prompted crypto platforms to seek business diversification. However, as multiple states in the U.S. have raised legal challenges against sports prediction contracts, the direction of related regulations may also impact industry development.

The cryptocurrency wallet Phantom is opening the Kalshi prediction market to users in the United States, allowing users to trade event contracts directly within the Phantom app. This feature will begin rolling out on October 23 and will gradually expand coverage over the coming weeks. Users must first complete Kalshi's KYC.Transactions will be conducted using the CASH stablecoin in the Phantom Cash account, and funds will be converted to fiat currency for settlement after being transferred to Kalshi. Withdrawals and profits will return to Phantom Cash. Phantom currently shows a fee of $0.02 per contract, with a small additional fee for network transfer.Due to local regulatory controversies, Phantom will restrict market categories in certain states: Michigan temporarily blocks sports markets; Nevada restricts sports, elections, politics, and entertainment markets; Washington state has broader restrictions, including categories such as culture, technology, and geopolitics. Phantom's General Counsel Kevin Jacobs stated that the company believes the CFTC's jurisdiction over relevant products is clear and will continue to comply with existing restrictions in various states.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction event "Elon Musk Tweet Count Prediction" on Polymarket, the "Yes" option in the sub-market "260-279" has experienced severe fluctuations in winning probability, dropping from 52.5% an hour ago to the current 36.5% (a fluctuation of 16%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has prohibited all Pentagon personnel from using non-public information to place bets on upcoming military operations, involving prediction market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket. In a memo sent to senior Pentagon officials and defense agencies on Tuesday, he stated that all Department of Defense personnel are prohibited from using non-public information for financial transactions, with the relevant restrictions covering both classified and unclassified information.Austin wrote in the memo that adversaries will observe movements in these markets, and the safety of U.S. military personnel often depends on the enemy not knowing what is about to happen. He also pointed out that, aside from operational security, financial betting can distort judgment: a logistics personnel betting on the date of an operation will be concerned about that date, and an analyst holding a position on the outcome will also be concerned about that outcome.Before this directive was issued, U.S. Army soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke was charged in April for allegedly profiting over $400,000 on Polymarket by using classified information regarding the operation to capture Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. Prosecutors claimed he participated in the planning and execution of the operation and used advance knowledge to bet on the outcome of Maduro's ousting; he pleaded not guilty to all charges. In February, Israeli authorities also arrested and charged a military reservist and a civilian for allegedly using classified information to bet on events related to Israeli strikes against Iran on Polymarket.

Hunter Biden, son of Biden, stated that over 12% of the total supply of LAPTOP tokens has been permanently destroyed. Among them, 30% of LAPTOP tokens are linked to real-world prediction results: if the relevant predictions come true, the corresponding tokens will be destroyed; if the predictions are not realized, the tokens will be donated to charity.This destruction was triggered by predictions related to the Nobel Peace Prize and also includes all unclaimed airdrop tokens.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the "Elon Musk Tweet Count Prediction" event on the Polymarket market, the "Yes" option in the sub-market "320-339" has experienced significant fluctuations in winning probability, soaring from 45.05% an hour ago to the current 60.85% (a fluctuation of 15.8%). Please note the impact of relevant breaking news.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction event "Bitcoin Price Prediction for October 19" on Polymarket, the "Yes" option for the sub-market "81,000 USD" experienced a dramatic fluctuation in winning probability, soaring from 12.5% an hour ago to the current 29.5% (a fluctuation of 17%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction event "Elon Musk Tweet Prediction" on Polymarket, the "Yes" option in the sub-market "340-359" has experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, dropping from 63.95% an hour ago to the current 48.75% (a fluctuation of 15.2%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

Fortune Protocol officially announces a collaboration with the AI Agent platform X-Agent. The two parties will jointly explore the combination of prediction markets and proactive Personal Agents, promoting the extension of prediction markets from information inquiry tools to personalized, proactive information service scenarios.In this collaboration, Fortune Protocol will provide prediction market scenarios and related market data capabilities, while X-Agent will leverage its advantages in Personal Agent technology and application design to jointly explore how AI Agents can continuously track events of interest to users, identify changes in market probabilities, provide contextual interpretations, and take further actions with user authorization.The two parties will first advance the design of application scenarios and the development of conceptual prototypes, exploring the application potential of prediction markets in the next generation of personal AI Agents and the Agent Economy.