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grayscale

Grayscale is the world's largest cryptocurrency asset management company. Through its range of investment products, Grayscale provides access and exposure to the digital currency asset class in the form of securities, without the need to directly purchase, store, and custody digital currencies.
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first_img Grayscale Research Director: The decline in computing power stocks, demand will still be maintained

Grayscale Research Director Zach Pandl stated in "The Stack" published on October 20, 2026: AI computing infrastructure stocks have recently declined due to investors' concerns about rising borrowing costs, while the financing needs of related companies are high. The stock index, which includes AI cloud service providers CoreWeave and Nebius, has fallen by approximately 27% since the end of September, according to data from Bloomberg and Grayscale Investments, based on the Indxx High-Performance Computing Index, as of October 19, 2026.Pandl noted: Most of these companies are in early stages and capital-intensive, with some neocloud capital expenditures being several times their current revenue. The top five holdings in the index have a capital expenditure to sales ratio exceeding 230% over the past 12 months, with data as of October 19, 2026. He believes that while stock prices are correcting, the demand and prices for computing power remain stable, with demand for computing power increasing rather than decreasing.He also anticipates: The decline in token prices and the increase in AI agent usage will lead to higher inference demand, thereby supporting the growth of computing power demand; if demand increases and computing power prices remain high, these companies may benefit. He also mentioned the slowdown in GPU depreciation, as well as the overlap between AI computing power and the Bitcoin mining industry, with the possibility of rising Bitcoin prices. Pandl believes: Higher borrowing costs have suppressed computing infrastructure stocks, but the fundamental trend of rising computing power demand remains valid, and this correction should be seen as an opportunity to increase exposure to the energized compute layer.

first_img Grayscale Research Director: Cheaper Proxy AI Will Drive Up Computing Power Demand

Grayscale's Research Director Zach Pandl stated in his column The Stack on October 8 that the rising demand for AI is due to decreasing usage costs and technology's ability to perform tasks more autonomously, thereby increasing the demand for computing power and the physical infrastructure that supports AI. Lower costs can unleash more AI activities, and the low-cost competition of open-source weight models is driving down token prices, making cheaper intelligence economically viable for more applications and automated workflows.The article cites that Anthropic's latest Sonnet model claims to reduce the cost of each task by up to 30%; OpenAI's always-on agent dots, launched on September 29, can work towards user goals around the clock, potentially significantly increasing the demand for computing power. Pandl compares that chatbots primarily answer questions, while agents execute multi-step processes to achieve goals, with tasks like preparing for client meetings potentially consuming 5 to 50 times the tokens of a single chat interaction, and always-on agents may extend processing beyond a single conversation.Pandl cites Goldman Sachs' prediction that by 2030, token consumption could increase 24 times, primarily driven by agents; even with improved efficiency, if usage grows faster, the total demand for computing power may still rise. He points out that digital activities still rely on physical infrastructure that requires time to deliver, such as electricity, data centers, and GPUs, and cheaper AI can coexist with tight computing power supply, mentioning that CoreWeave recently signed new contracts at higher computing power prices. His conclusion is that cheaper intelligence and stronger agents may expand use cases and usage enough to offset efficiency gains, thereby supporting the demand for scarce computing power and benefiting its owners.

Grayscale: The increase in Bitcoin's price is highly concentrated on a few trading days, and staying out also carries an opportunity cost

Grayscale's research director Zach Pandl stated that over the past three years, Bitcoin's cumulative return rate was approximately 225%, while the Nasdaq index's return rate was 109%. However, Bitcoin's rise was not evenly distributed, with a few of the strongest trading days contributing significantly to long-term returns, increasing the difficulty for investors to time their entry.Data shows that if the five best trading days for Bitcoin are excluded, its three-year cumulative return rate would drop from 225% to 95%; excluding the best ten trading days, the return rate falls to 27%; and if the best fifteen trading days are missed, the three-year return would turn into a loss of 11%. In contrast, the return distribution of the Nasdaq is more balanced; after excluding the best fifteen trading days, the cumulative return rate drops from 109% to 21%.Grayscale indicated that during this period, less than 0.5% of trading days contributed enough gains that, when excluded, would reduce Bitcoin's cumulative return by more than half. For assets with high return and high volatility characteristics, staying out also carries an opportunity cost; since the best trading days are difficult to predict reliably, waiting for volatility to decrease or for market prospects to become clearer may mean that some price re-evaluations have already been completed.
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