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first_img Stanford professor releases venture capital firm rankings: 5% of VCs generate 90% of industry profits, 21 new firms enter the top 100

Stanford Business School Professor Ilya Strebulaev, in collaboration with Blake Jackson, released the 2026 Strebulaev-Jackson Venture Capital Firm Rankings, based on nearly 30 years of data from over 230,000 investments and nearly 13,000 VCs. The research estimates that about 5% of VCs generate approximately 90% of the industry's profits. The top five are Sequoia Capital (10,158 points), Andreessen Horowitz (8,292 points), Accel, DST Global, and Tiger Global. Among them, Parkway Venture Capital (19th place) and Notable (20th place) made it into the top 20, but are not well-known leading brands.The rankings are based on six major factors: discount valuation, dilution adjustment, net profit (after costs), value added (lead investments and board seats), human capital decay (three-and-a-half-year half-life), and credit allocation between institutions and individuals (25% for the investing institution and 75% for the current institution). Of the top 100, 62 are located in California, 19 in New York, and 6 each in Massachusetts and Texas. 21 were established in 2015 or later, and 23 of the best investments are in frontier AI or AI infrastructure companies, with OpenAI listed as the best investment by 4 firms, xAI by 3, and Anthropic and Perplexity by 2 each. The ranking methodology has a correlation of only about 0.27 with the Midas List, with SV Angel investing in about 139 unicorns ranked 31st, and Thrive with only 47 unicorns ranked 8th. This ranking is the result of research by Stanford professors and does not constitute investment advice.

Research: Over 150 Polymarket wallets suspected of utilizing U.S. military secrets for trading, with total profits of approximately 8 million dollars

The latest research from the Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC) shows that at least 152 anonymous wallets on Polymarket may have profited approximately $8 million by trading on advanced knowledge of U.S. military and defense-related information, achieving an average win rate of 97.2%. However, the research institution emphasizes that blockchain data itself cannot prove the actual identities of the controllers of these wallets, nor can it confirm the sources of their information, and therefore insider trading cannot be established based on this.ACDC analyzed settled markets on Polymarket, focusing on "low probability high stakes" behaviors, which are trades that cumulatively bet at least $2,500 within one hour, with corresponding outcome probabilities not exceeding 35%. The study identified 556 wallets with abnormal trading patterns, of which 152 were involved in military and defense markets. These wallets were referred to by researchers as "Orcas," characterized by their sudden appearance, betting on low probability events, and achieving abnormally high success rates before profiting and exiting.The research found that the success rate of low probability bets in military and defense markets was significantly higher than the overall level on Polymarket, and some abnormal trades quickly attracted large traders and automated trading bots to follow. For example, before a U.S. attack on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025, an abnormal bet on U.S. military action appeared, after which an automated trading bot subsequently bet $200,000, and another large trader bet $100,000. Researchers also found similar abnormal bets and follow-on trading behavior before the U.S.-Israeli attack on Tehran.David Szakonyi, co-founder of ACDC, stated that the abnormal trading activities on Polymarket are more public than many traders realize, and large traders and bots are already tracking and replicating suspected informed trades, so foreign intelligence agencies may also be monitoring these public on-chain trading activities. The issue of insider trading in prediction markets has recently received ongoing attention from regulatory agencies. In April, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) accused U.S. Army soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke of trading Polymarket contracts using confidential information regarding the capture of former Venezuelan President Maduro, allegedly profiting over $404,000. This case is not directly related to the 152 wallets identified. Additionally, in May, the CFTC also charged a Google software engineer with trading 23 Polymarket contracts using confidential information related to the company's 2025 "annual search" rankings, profiting approximately $1.2 million with near-perfect accuracy. Polymarket has previously stated that the company closely monitors suspicious trading and has reported dozens of wallets to the relevant authorities. As the scale of prediction markets continues to expand, insider trading, market manipulation, and national security risks are becoming important reasons for regulatory agencies to strengthen oversight.

hot_img Yushu Technology starts subscription, Meituan and Sequoia may become the biggest external winners, DJI misses out on approximately 3.7 billion yuan in floating profits

Yushu Technology officially launched online and offline subscriptions on August 10, with an issue price of 150.80 yuan per share. The total market value after issuance is approximately 60.993 billion yuan, with total fundraising of nearly 6.1 billion yuan, and the issuance price-to-earnings ratio is 219.23 times, significantly higher than the industry average of 38.56 times.Meituan holds a total of 9.65% of Yushu's shares before issuance through its three subsidiaries, making it the largest external institutional shareholder; Sequoia China holds a total of 7.11%, ranking second. Based on the issue price, the two institutions will receive substantial paper returns. Sequoia first participated in the capital increase in December 2019 with 15 million yuan, at which time the post-investment valuation was only 150 million yuan.A fund under DJI planned to invest 10.1286 million yuan in 2018 for a corresponding shareholding of about 17%, and completed the business registration, but chose to withdraw its investment in 2019. If this investment had been retained until now, the corresponding market value would be approximately 3.7 billion yuan based on the issue price. DJI did not explain the reason for the withdrawal, but in 2019, the company announced an anti-corruption notice, disclosing the handling of 45 employees suspected of corruption, which led to a complete halt of the investment department's work.Among other major shareholders, Jingwei Venture Capital holds 5.45%, Shunwei Capital holds 4.42%, and CITIC Securities holds a total of 4.49%. In terms of strategic placement, DeepSeek received 933,400 shares (subscription of 141 million yuan), and Shanghai Qishan Investment, a subsidiary of Tencent, received 903,300 shares. CITIC Securities, as the sole sponsor, will receive approximately 145 million yuan in sponsorship underwriting fees and will be allocated 808,900 shares through co-investment. Yushu also reminds that the issuance price-to-earnings ratio is significantly higher than the industry average, posing a risk of stock price decline. The deadline for payment for successful applicants is August 12.
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