pullback

Cryptocurrency analyst Ali Charts stated that as the U.S. midterm elections on November 3 approach, investors may overlook the recurring phenomenon of Bitcoin pullbacks observed in previous election cycles. He believes that this election may once again be accompanied by significant volatility, and the downside risk is worth noting, with a key focus on the lower price level of $73,000. According to his statistics, during the U.S. midterm election cycles in 2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022, Bitcoin experienced pullbacks of 72%, 65%, 52%, and 27%, respectively.However, he emphasized that correlation does not imply causation; the election itself may not necessarily be the reason for the decline, as these pullbacks are also influenced by the overall market cycle of Bitcoin, liquidity conditions, and investor sentiment. Fourth-quarter returns also exhibit similar characteristics: in 2014, 2018, and 2022, Bitcoin fell by 16.7%, 42.16%, and 14.75% in the fourth quarter, respectively. The only exception was in 2010, when it rose by 391%, but Bitcoin was still in its early development stage at that time. Therefore, in the past four midterm election years, three of those years recorded negative returns in the fourth quarter.Regarding the subsequent trend, Ali Charts indicated that the area around $73,000 is close to the average purchase cost of current short-term Bitcoin holders, which can be used to observe the positions of recent investors entering the market. He pointed out that in an established bull market, Bitcoin often finds support near the cost of short-term holders after experiencing a significant pullback. He believes that if selling pressure accelerates after the election on November 3, pushing Bitcoin back down to around $73,000, that area will become an important position to test whether buyers are still willing to maintain the overall bullish trend. If the price continues to rebound from that area, it will strengthen the bullish judgment; in terms of operations, he will wait for signs of selling pressure exhaustion and renewed demand before considering establishing long positions.

Renowned trader Doctor Profit stated that he has opened a long position in Bitcoin at $81,000 with 4x leverage. He believes that the current pullback has completed, with the $81,000 to $82,000 area forming strong support, and he views it as a local bottom, with the next target still at $94,000.He pointed out that Bitcoin previously rose near $87,000, but the daily RSI high decreased, forming a bearish divergence. After this pullback, the RSI has returned to the area where the previous rebound occurred, and the price has once again touched the orange line in his chart, resembling the pattern when the last local bottom was formed.Regarding the subsequent path, he expects that first, it is necessary to reclaim $82,000 for confirmation, followed by a consolidation between $82,000 and $88,000, and then a breakout of the range to rise towards $94,000. He anticipates that the $86,000 to $88,000 area will be characterized by accumulation rather than distribution this time, with buying absorbing selling pressure, turning resistance into support.

According to Gate quotes, the Japanese and South Korean stock markets opened higher today but the gains have slightly retreated.The South Korean KOSPI opened up 1.80% to 5653.99 points, currently reported at 5623.72 points, with an intraday increase of 1.25%; KOSDAQ opened up 1.49%. The memory chip sector continues to lead the gains, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both rising over 2%. The South Korean stock market saw a significant drop yesterday, triggering a circuit breaker, and today is experiencing a recovery rebound. The Japanese Nikkei 225 opened up 0.78% to 64925.29 points, briefly surging to 1% after opening, and is currently maintaining a high-level fluctuation.

According to monitoring by lookonchain, despite the continuous decline in the cryptocurrency market, some whales are still buying on dips. Previously, the whale address 0x8E8b sold 2050 ETH, cashing out approximately 4.93 million dollars, with a profit of about 1.08 million dollars.The address has repurchased 6010 ETH, worth approximately 14.23 million dollars.

Mark Newton, an analyst at Tom Lee's fund, stated in an interview that he expects global stock markets to consolidate in the short term before experiencing a stronger rally; the global stock market is expected to perform well from November to April, while a weakening dollar will also benefit emerging markets. Mark Newton believes that now is not the time to panic, and the pullback from mid to late October to November could create the best buying opportunity of this cycle.

Renowned trader Killa stated that if Bitcoin is to evolve according to the current trend structure, it needs to form a higher low above $75,500, ideally also holding the low around $80,000. This is similar to the trend in 2023: at that time, Bitcoin formed a higher high on the weekly level, then retraced and held the original range. This may explain why the recent low time frame market seems so prone to triggering stop losses, with aggressive movements and traces of algorithmic trading.Bitcoin once reclaimed its internal structure in the $82,000 range, then retraced, broke the structure again, and then reclaimed it once more. The entire market seems to be deliberately enticing traders to enter. It must be acknowledged that the initial drop to the $81,000 range was not ideal from a structural perspective. However, there were a large number of shorts concentrated at the lows, which may explain the subsequent price reaction.Another detail worth noting is that during the drop from $84,100 to $81,000, only about $300 million in long positions were liquidated; whereas previously, during the drop from $86,800 to $80,600, the scale of long liquidations exceeded $2 billion. The significant decrease in long liquidation scale indicates that the current market's reliance on long positions may be lower than before. The current market situation is quite delicate. Bitcoin needs to form a higher low at the current position to initiate a new round of upward movement; otherwise, this pullback may bring the price below $80,000. As of now, the so-called "crash protection team" has done well in maintaining the price, but it is also continuously disrupting the internal oscillation range in the low time frame.

According to Hupzy, the current net exposure of hedge funds to the "Magnificent 7" in the U.S. stock market has risen to 22%, a record high, surpassing the peak of 21% on June 2024, and increasing by 7 percentage points since July of this year. In comparison, at the bottom of the bear market in 2022, this indicator was only 8%.The record-long positions reflect strong confidence from institutions in technology stocks, but it also means that trading may be overly crowded and does not necessarily indicate that the market will continue to rise. If the relevant investment logic changes, large-scale liquidations could trigger a sharp reversal and directly impact the perpetual contract market for the S&P 500 index; a decline in risk appetite may also further pressure Bitcoin.Additionally, the net exposure of hedge funds in the semiconductor sector is currently at 12%, slightly below the peak of 14% in June 2024, but significantly up from 2% at the beginning of 2025. Over the past three months, the increase in hedge fund exposure to the Magnificent 7 has been the largest since 2023.

A community user posted that Zhao Changpeng released the daily message "Every dip is an opportunity" on September 16, 2026, when the price of Bitcoin was approximately $75,800, and linked it to the recent BTC trend.In response, Zhao Changpeng stated that this is just "pure coincidence" and said, "I am right only slightly over 50% of the time because I have always been bullish."

Morgan Stanley strategists stated that since early summer, U.S. stock valuations have significantly declined, and the investment attractiveness of certain market sectors is increasing. The team led by Michael Wilson pointed out that the capital goods sector is particularly prominent, with upward revisions in earnings expectations ranking among the top.Analysts expect that the earnings of S&P 500 constituent stocks will grow by 25% year-on-year in the third quarter.

Doctor Profit stated that it has shorted BTC at $86,200 and plans to add short positions in the range of $86,500 to $89,500, with the current target price still at $79,000.

Renowned trader Killa stated that the current Bitcoin trend has clearly shifted, yet we are still at the peak stage of the "market skepticism bull market."In the 2023 bull market, if one went long every time there was a sweep below the "established low" (meaning a low that has been confirmed by the market and has shown support), the price only dropped a maximum of 8% below that low; in some cases, it only dropped 4-5% before immediately rebounding.Our current "established low" is 82.5K; based on historical performance, the expected downward deviation will be very small. Killa, as a quantitative trader focused on BTC, predicted the peak of this bull market in May 2025 and has over 200,000 followers on platform X. In mid-April, he shorted Bitcoin at 74,688 USD and turned to long during the market-wide decline on June 5.

Bitwise CEO posted on the X platform, stating that investors should buy during the NEAR pullback. Bitwise NEAR ETF NRR saw a net inflow of approximately 9 million dollars on the third day.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield returned to above 5.2% overnight, reaching a high not seen since 2007, putting pressure on global risk assets. Bitcoin has fallen back to around $83,000, with altcoins experiencing even larger declines. In this regard, Cloud, the chief analyst at Huobi HTX, believes that this drop is more akin to a normal pullback after a rebound and does not constitute the starting point of a trend reversal. The high U.S. Treasury yields mainly suppress valuations, with limited impact on the overall liquidity. The funding structure and holding costs of the crypto market itself have also not been disrupted. This round of decline seems more like a clearing of positions before key data is released.It is important to be cautious about the divergence between Bitcoin and altcoins. During a phase of marginal liquidity tightening, funds tend to concentrate on the most certain top assets; altcoins lack incremental funds to support them, and with heavier leverage, their pullbacks are therefore amplified. This divergence is likely to continue before the release of this week's PCE and non-farm data. If the data falls short of expectations, altcoins will have greater elasticity and thus higher risks; if the data exceeds expectations, Bitcoin's relative strength will be more pronounced. Whether Bitcoin can stabilize at key support levels will be the main signal to determine if this round of pullback has ended.Note: The content of this article does not constitute investment advice, nor does it constitute any offer, solicitation, or recommendation of investment products.

JPMorgan analysts stated that the recent pullback in global AI trading has improved investors' positions, making valuations more attractive, which may drive investors to reposition, especially in the semiconductor stock sector. JPMorgan pointed out that sustained strong earnings performance and evidence of AI commercialization will support investors' renewed focus on this sector.

JackYi (@Jackyi_ld) analyzed that this round of BTC pullback closely aligns with its prediction made 20 days ago, when it had already warned that BTC would face significant resistance around 86K and suggested taking profits at that position.JackYi emphasized that the pullback does not change the overall trend of the bull market; in the early stages of a bull market, there are opportunities everywhere, and high-quality assets will rise in turn. Investors should forget setbacks, filter out noise, and focus on finding long opportunities.

Despite yesterday's Bitcoin pullback leading to a significant decline in altcoins and on-chain tokens, according to Alternative data, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index still reports 71 (the same as yesterday), indicating that market sentiment remains at the "Greed" level.Note: The Fear Index threshold ranges from 0-100 and includes the following indicators: Volatility (25%) + Market Trading Volume (25%) + Social Media Popularity (15%) + Market Surveys (15%) + Bitcoin's Proportion in the Overall Market (10%) + Google Trends Analysis (10%).

Bitwise released its first report on "Institutional Adoption of Crypto Assets," based on interviews with investment professionals responsible for crypto asset allocation at 15 large institutions. The report states that during the period from the fourth quarter of 2025 to the second quarter of 2026, the overall crypto market will retract by about 50%, but none of the interviewed institutions reduced their crypto asset allocation, and some institutions even increased their holdings.All interviewed institutions holding crypto assets possess Bitcoin, with most viewing it as a store of value and ranking it alongside gold as a hedge against fiat currency depreciation. The report also shows that the allocation of crypto assets by the interviewed institutions ranges from 0.5% to 13% of their investable assets, with most concentrated between 1% and 2%.

According to Binance spot market data, the market has experienced significant fluctuations. ATOM has risen by 12.84% in the last 24 hours and reached a new high for the week.At the same time, tokens such as BAND, CELR, INJ, LUNA, ONE, SKL, XTZ, and AGLD have all shown a "high and then low" state, with declines of 7.78%, 31.54%, 7.24%, 15.68%, 28.06%, 18.27%, 11.6%, and 15.09%, respectively.

According to Gate market data, Hong Kong stocks opened lower today and continued to decline, with the Hang Seng Index closing down 0.85% in the morning session, and the Tech Index down 0.79%. The total market turnover was 118.83 billion Hong Kong dollars. Non-ferrous metals and storage concept stocks saw significant corrections, while oil and gas, as well as optical communication stocks, led the gains. In terms of individual stocks, Orient Overseas International rose by 2.4%, while Zhidatech fell by over 28.5%.

According to Gate market data, the Hong Kong stock index fell 1.29% in the morning session, the technology index fell 2.07%, and the total market turnover was 105.86 billion Hong Kong dollars. Sectors such as application software and power equipment experienced fluctuations and corrections, while printing and packaging, as well as storage concepts, led the gains.In terms of individual stocks, Zhihu fell nearly 8%, MiniMax fell nearly 7%, NIO fell nearly 5%, and both Alibaba and Meituan fell over 3%; China Unicom rose over 2.5%, while China Life and Hua Hong Semiconductor rose 2%.