signals

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the Bitcoin funding rate is showing typical signals before the significant increases in September 2024 and December 2022, indicating that pessimism may have recently peaked.From March to May, Bitcoin corrected over 50%, and the accumulation of short positions pushed the funding rate down to negative values. Subsequently, BTC rebounded to $82,000 in May. This signal has appeared again, potentially leaving room for a bullish reconstruction in the coming months. This indicator has been transformed into a monthly sentiment aggregation tool, which is more effective than the Fear and Greed Index.

According to CoinDesk, analysts say that if the Federal Reserve releases any dovish signals, it could be beneficial for Bitcoin. There is significant divergence in the market regarding whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates on Wednesday—CME FedWatch data shows a 70% probability of maintaining rates and a 30% probability of an unexpected 25 basis point hike. Block Scholes analyst Thahbib Rahman pointed out that the reduction in forward guidance usage by Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh has led to increased market uncertainty, making this FOMC meeting one of the most uncertain in years.Bitcoin has risen about 6% so far in July, while the S&P 500 has remained flat, and the semiconductor sector has dropped nearly 20%. K33 Research's research director Vetle Lunde stated that the Nasdaq had previously been strong and positions were stretched, with Bitcoin continuing to consolidate near multi-year lows, leading to a weakening correlation between the two. This week's FOMC meeting may have limited impact on BTC. Rahman stated, "Any dovish signals could drive Bitcoin to continue outperforming."

Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode released the report "Charting Crypto Q3 2026," maintaining a neutral outlook on the crypto market.The report shows that on-chain data indicates Bitcoin may be transitioning from a correction phase to an accumulation phase, but the Fed's hawkish stance, weak spot ETF demand, and geopolitical risks continue to pressure the market outlook.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that the Bitcoin market sentiment has shifted from bearish to bullish and has maintained this for the second week. A model that integrates multiple market data points shows that the Bitcoin status score has rebounded from a low of -42.9 on June 26 to +34.7. Over the past week, this score has remained in positive territory for more than 80% of the time, reaching a peak of +65.3 on July 10, indicating that the overall market sentiment has shifted from seller-dominated to buyer-strong.Currently, 79.4% of the multiple sub-indicators included in the model point in the same direction, significantly higher than this month's average of 57.3%, suggesting that there are no obvious contradictions among the data, and the current bullish signal is not noise. Moving forward, if the market sentiment score further rises above +50 and the consistency remains above 80%, the bullish trend will be further confirmed; if the score continues to fall below zero and consistency drops below 40%, the current trend will be considered invalid.

According to CoinDesk, in just the month of June, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $4 billion, led by BlackRock's IBIT, as funds shifted towards opportunities in AI trading and the SpaceX IPO. Bitcoin fell about 14% in the second quarter, dropping below $60,000, marking its third consecutive quarter of losses. However, this outflow pales in comparison to the $2 trillion private credit market. Redemption requests in private credit reached $15.6 billion in the second quarter, with 10 out of 16 business development companies exceeding the 5% quarterly cap, and most investors receiving only partial payouts. Fitch expects redemptions to continue in the coming months, and unmet requests will keep several companies under pressure.Bitcoin ETFs have strong liquidity, and outflows directly impact BTC prices; in contrast, private credit BDCs are illiquid long-term instruments. The simultaneous redemptions of both reflect widespread market concerns about liquidity and risk. The energy market is also sending signals of risk aversion, with the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve at its lowest level since 1983. QCP Capital summarized: "Different sectors, same pattern: the market's buffer space is narrowing." It pointed out that the Strategic Petroleum Reserve has bottomed out, Strategy has sold BTC for the first time to pay dividends, and private credit redemptions have surpassed thresholds, all indicating that risk assets face a more challenging environment.

BIT stated in the latest weekly market observation that Bitcoin has recovered most of its decline from June last week, re-establishing itself above the 200-week moving average and entering the key confirmation range of $63,000 to $66,000.Ethereum's weekly increase is even stronger, indicating that this round of rebound has broader market participation.

According to CoinDesk, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh will testify before Congress for the first time on July 14 at 10 AM (Eastern Time), and traders are closely watching for signals regarding stablecoins, bank custody, and interest rate policy.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin developers are discussing the removal of the explicit Replace-by-Fee (RBF) signal from the Bitcoin Core wallet. Developer rkrux stated that since full-RBF has become the standard strategy, the BIP 125 RBF signal has become redundant and may leave unnecessary wallet chain fingerprints.Community member Murch noted that stopping the sending of replaceability signals is not simply about removing "fingerprints," as each sender still has to choose a sequence number for each input; currently, about 75% of transactions have used specific sequence numbers, primarily MAX-2. rkrux indicated that the default input sequence number should adopt best practices recognized by a broader wallet community.

According to Jinshi reports, data shows that forex traders, including hedge funds, are buying options in large quantities, betting that the dollar will strengthen further after the Federal Reserve released hawkish signals this week. Leveraged funds began buying dollar call options on Wednesday, and this demand continued into Thursday as investors digested the anti-inflation remarks from the new Federal Reserve Chair, Waller. Tobias Jungmann, head of forex options at Bank of America, stated that the buying of dollar call options is heavily concentrated in G-10 currencies. James Swindell, a forex options trader at Barclays, also noted a significant increase in demand for dollar call options, particularly in the euro/dollar and pound/dollar pairs.

The Federal Reserve has released a hawkish signal, putting pressure on gold prices to decline. According to CoinGlass data, gold (XAUT) is currently priced at $4280.41, down 0.62% in the last 24 hours. Meanwhile, the total 24-hour trading volume of XAUT across the network reached $293 million, with the Gate platform performing particularly well, recording a 24-hour trading volume of $26.6557 million for its XAUT/USDT trading pair, and a 7-day trading volume exceeding $131 million, both ranking in the top two globally. In addition, the total 24-hour trading volume of XAUT contracts across the network reached $1.138 billion, with the Gate platform's position size around $11.9 million, ranking third among global exchanges.

According to Jinshi News, Christopher Hodge, Chief U.S. Economist at the French Foreign Trade Bank in North America, believes that the Federal Reserve's statement has been significantly streamlined, with clear hawkish signals. Interest rates remain unchanged, the tendency for easing has been removed, and there were no dissenting votes. The conclusion of the statement emphasizes the commitment to achieving price stability. Overall, this is a hawkish statement.

According to Jinshi reports, Deutsche Bank's Chief Economist in the U.S., Luzzetti, stated that clear signals indicate the need to raise interest rates to curb inflation.

Glassnode published an analysis on platform X indicating that its cumulative trend score metric shows that after Bitcoin's price dipped to the $60,000 range in early June, the overall behavior of on-chain addresses has clearly shifted towards accumulation.This metric measures the intensity of accumulation behavior on-chain by combining holding size and recent balance changes, with a value close to 1 representing widespread accumulation and a value close to 0 indicating ongoing distribution.

According to Mike McGlone, Chief Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg, Bitcoin has significantly led risk assets in previous upward cycles, and this leading relationship may be reversing in the current phase. In his latest comments, he stated that Bitcoin has previously "driven risk assets upward," but now "may also drive them downward," and believes that based on its comparison chart with the S&P 500 scaled up by 10 times, the overall β assets may enter a downward year in 2026.He emphasized that since 2009, the annual total return of the S&P 500 has only declined in 2018 and 2022, both of which coincided with Bitcoin's downward cycles and corresponded to the U.S. midterm election cycles. He believes the difference in the current market is that structural pressures are accumulating: inflation has re-emerged as a core political issue, while stock market volatility has remained low for an extended period, but risk indicators for commodities like gold and oil have continued to rise. This combination of "low volatility stocks + high-risk commodities" is historically rare.Additionally, McGlone stated that since 2026, both Bitcoin and gold have shown signs of "mean reversion," which may indicate that the risk asset cycle is entering a repricing phase. He pointed out that Bitcoin and gold have retraced about 50% from their 2025 peak (around $126,000), while the total return index for U.S. Treasuries may be forming a phase bottom from a low area not seen since 1983.Currently, the market still lacks key confirmation signals: specifically, the S&P 500 to GDP ratio has fallen from near its highest level since 1928. If this indicator begins to turn, it may signify that a broader risk asset cycle is entering a structural adjustment.

According to Jinshi reports, Bank of America Securities stated that investors should remain cautious about the U.S. stock market, as an increasing number of bear market signals indicate that the market is approaching its peak. The strategist team led by Savita Subramanian noted in a report on June 5 that about 70% of bear market signals have been triggered, with 17 out of 20 valuation metrics for the S&P 500 index showing "statistically significant overvaluation." In addition, the strategists believe that the performance of high price-to-earnings ratio stocks has been too strong, indicating "signs of excessive speculation."