CoinShares: CPI suppresses Bitcoin's short-term upward movement, but the U.S. Treasury's repurchase failure constitutes a medium-term bullish factor

CoinShares Research Director James Butterfill stated that Bitcoin is currently facing an "unusual combination"—short-term bearish and medium-term bullish factors are present at the same time.

In the short term, the U.S. core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month in August, higher than market expectations. Butterfill said, "The CPI data is marginally negative, increasing the probability of monetary policy tightening, which may limit Bitcoin's immediate upside potential." CME FedWatch data showed that market bets on the Federal Reserve's next rate hike reached as high as 85%.

In the medium term, he pointed out that the U.S. Treasury's expanded bond buyback program has failed to effectively lower long-term yields. If this situation continues, it may force authorities to implement larger intervention measures, raising concerns about currency depreciation, which would instead benefit Bitcoin and gold valuations. CoinShares believes that Bitcoin's short-term upside may be limited to below $80,000.