cpi

CoinShares Research Director James Butterfill stated that Bitcoin is currently facing an "unusual combination"—short-term bearish and medium-term bullish factors are present at the same time.In the short term, the U.S. core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month in August, higher than market expectations. Butterfill said, "The CPI data is marginally negative, increasing the probability of monetary policy tightening, which may limit Bitcoin's immediate upside potential." CME FedWatch data showed that market bets on the Federal Reserve's next rate hike reached as high as 85%.In the medium term, he pointed out that the U.S. Treasury's expanded bond buyback program has failed to effectively lower long-term yields. If this situation continues, it may force authorities to implement larger intervention measures, raising concerns about currency depreciation, which would instead benefit Bitcoin and gold valuations. CoinShares believes that Bitcoin's short-term upside may be limited to below $80,000.

After the CPI was announced yesterday, Ethereum briefly surged nearly 10%, quickly rising from $2433 to $2667. According to analyst alicharts, this short-term spike was driven by whales, during which the number of Ethereum transactions worth over $1 million increased by nearly 14%.However, alicharts also stated that Ethereum is now approaching a major resistance level. Previously, over 10 million ETH were traded between $2700 and $2800, forming a significant supply barrier. This is the key range that whales must break through for Ethereum to rise to $3000.

CICC Research pointed out that the U.S. CPI in August rose by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year, slightly higher than market expectations.CICC believes that this report has reached the threshold for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, expecting a 25 basis point increase at the meeting on September 16, and may lower the unemployment rate and raise inflation forecasts, signaling tightening.

According to on-chain analyst Yu Jin's monitoring, a whale with a position of 70 million USD in BTC long was completely liquidated at 20:30 due to the CPI data release, which caused BTC to spike to 76,046 USD, with a liquidation price of 76,308 USD, resulting in a loss of 1.6 million USD.After the spike, BTC quickly rebounded, reopening a BTC long position worth 13.68 million USD at 77,875 USD.

Goldman Sachs economist Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo stated: "Today's CPI largely meets expectations, which on the surface is the result investors hoped for, but it indeed heightens the suspense for next week's interest rate decision. The challenge is that the data does not fully reflect the recent emergence of some inflationary pressures, and there is little evidence that inflation is returning to target in the short term. The survey period for this report predates the latest round of energy price increases and also predates the surge in commodities spreading from energy to metals and agriculture. Today's inflation data does not eliminate the possibility of stronger price pressures emerging in the future.In summary, today's data that meets expectations will allow the Federal Reserve to keep the option of raising interest rates, but it will not be forced to act, so the market may focus more on Waller's communications, energy prices, labor market data, and what happens next, rather than on what was released today."

The financial blog Zero Hedge pointed out that today's U.S. CPI report shows that core CPI is running hot, while "super core inflation" is exceptionally heated, mainly due to historic price increases in education and communication services, with mobile communication service prices skyrocketing to record levels.

Nick Timiraos, the "Fed Whisperer," stated that in the August CPI, core services inflation excluding housing rose by 0.51% month-over-month, the highest level since January, and increased by 3% year-over-year. Core goods inflation rose by 0.11% month-over-month and increased by 0.7% year-over-year. Housing inflation rose by 0.26% month-over-month and increased by 3% year-over-year.

The seasonally unadjusted CPI in the United States for August recorded a monthly rate of 0.4%, the highest since June of this year, in line with expectations, with the previous value being 0.1%. The seasonally unadjusted CPI year-on-year for August recorded 3.4%, meeting expectations and unchanged from the previous value.

In August, the seasonally adjusted core CPI in the United States recorded a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, the highest since May of this year, exceeding market expectations of 0.2%, with the previous value being 0.2%. The year-on-year unadjusted core CPI in the United States for August fell to 2.4%, declining for three consecutive months, reaching the lowest level since April 2021, in line with expectations, with the previous value being 2.5%.

The seasonally adjusted CPI for the United States at the end of August is 334.98, expected to be 334.85, and the previous value was 333.918.

Analyst Giulia Petroni pointed out that due to the surge in oil prices, rising bond yields, and increasing expectations of interest rate hikes, gold prices are expected to drop more than 2% this week. New York gold futures prices once fell by 0.5%, to $4,383.9 per ounce.The market is closely watching the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data to be released on Friday. Traders expect a 67% probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates next week.

Renowned trader Killa published statistics indicating that after the last 3 releases of U.S. CPI data, BTC rose over 5% within 8 days. Killa believes that the current market has already priced in negative news, and the bear market trap has been set. "Let's see if a similar trend will occur this time."As a quantitative trader focused on BTC, Killa predicted the peak of this bull market in May 2025 and has over 200,000 followers on platform X. In mid-April, he shorted Bitcoin at $74,688 and switched to long during the market-wide decline on June 5.

Due to the rebound in gasoline prices, the consumer price increase in the U.S. for August is expected to accelerate, reinforcing market expectations for a possible interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve next week.The U.S. Department of Labor will release the August CPI report on Friday. Economists point out that oil prices returning to over $100 per barrel will keep inflation high.

On September 10, U.S. stocks closed with all three major indices falling, marking the fourth consecutive trading day of declines; Brent crude oil briefly touched around $108, U.S. Treasury yields rose, suppressing risk appetite; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell about 2.66%. In terms of concept stocks, most sectors such as chips, optical modules, and storage retreated, with the seven giants showing divergence: Apple (AAPL) rose 3.56%, Alphabet slightly increased, Microsoft was nearly flat, while others fell. In the energy sector, XOM rose about 0.61%, with some energy stocks resisting declines driven by oil prices.WEEX Labs believes that the rise of AAPL indicates that funds are still willing to invest in the new product cycle despite macro headwinds; investors need to closely monitor the August CPI data released today, which is the macro highlight of the week and will directly impact next week's interest rate pricing and market reactions. Trade stocks and gold using WEEX TradFi, and you can also participate in daily egg hunts, with a 100% prize rate, winning up to 10,000 USDT in position airdrops.

The U.S. Department of Labor will release the U.S. August CPI data tonight at 20:30 Beijing time, including the year-on-year CPI for August (previous value 3.40%, expected 3.40%), the month-on-month CPI (previous value 0.4%, expected 0.1%), as well as the seasonally adjusted core CPI month-on-month and the unadjusted core CPI month-on-month for August.

J.P. Morgan Private Bank macro investment strategist Patrick Ernst stated that the European Central Bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, which has a limited impact on the euro to dollar exchange rate.Ernst pointed out that the dollar may still dominate the market. If the U.S. CPI data exceeds expectations, it could weaken the upward momentum of the euro against the dollar. The U.S. CPI data for August will be released on Friday.

The founder of Liebit Mining Pool (B.TOP), Jiang Zhuoer, stated that after the release of the latest PPI data in the United States, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates has risen to 70%. It is expected that tomorrow's CPI data will not be favorable either, and preparations are being made to short.