waller

Federal Reserve Chairman Waller stated that he believes it is not necessary for people to lose their jobs.

Federal Reserve Chairman Waller stated at a press conference that as oil prices continue to rise, interest rates have fallen. He is skeptical about the impact of interest rate hikes on AI, leaving it up to you to decide whether to read it as AI or SI, and has noted that interest rates have an impact on the technology sector.

Federal Reserve Chairman Waller stated not to trust forward guidance unless a crisis occurs.

Federal Reserve Chairman Waller stated at a press conference that the situation of U.S. inflation being above the committee's target has persisted for nearly six years, and this FOMC discussion primarily focused on price stability.He pointed out that in recent weeks, energy and related prices have risen again, and the Federal Reserve must prevent relative price changes in specific areas from spreading throughout the economy and ensure that inflation expectations remain anchored.

Federal Reserve Chairman Waller stated at a press conference that the FOMC will still hold 8 meetings in 2027, including 1 specifically to discuss monetary policy strategy. It is expected that there will be no vote on the federal funds rate and no policy statement will be released, while the remaining 7 will be regular policy decision meetings.Related adjustments will begin in the fall of next year. He anticipates that there will be 2 strategic discussion meetings and 6 policy decision meetings in 2028.

Federal Reserve Chairman Waller stated that he has clearly indicated a readiness to take action, and information in the coming period will help determine the policy position.

Federal Reserve Chairman Waller stated that economic growth has strengthened.

The Federal Reserve will announce its October interest rate decision at 2 AM Beijing time on the 29th. The market generally expects the federal funds rate target range to remain unchanged at 3.75%--4.00%, with a probability of maintaining the status quo at over 90%. The wording of the statement and whether Chair Waller's press conference will release more hawkish signals, as well as how this will affect the market's significantly priced probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in December, have become the focus of attention.Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Credit Agricole all expect a pause in October and a 25 basis point hike in December. Goldman Sachs stated that if rate hikes continue every other meeting through 2027, a hike in March may be considered, but the baseline forecast does not expect a hike in March. Citigroup mentioned that if the stock market continues to weaken, leading to a sharp tightening of financial conditions, the likelihood of a shift to rate cuts will significantly increase. Moody's believes there will not and should not be another rate hike this week. Nomura Securities expects no change in October and stated that while the Federal Reserve guides expectations for a pause, it retains flexibility for a rate hike in December.TD Securities expects no change in October and anticipates two more hikes in December and March. Huatai Securities expects no change in October, with two hawkish voters possibly casting dissenting votes, with the baseline scenario being one rate hike in December this year and two hikes next year. Morgan Stanley expects a 25 basis point hike in both December and March next year. Bank of New York Mellon expects rates to peak slightly above 4.5%. Bank of America believes there is ample reason to raise rates in October; if they remain unchanged, they will only retain one option for a future hike.

According to The New York Times, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates at the FOMC meeting this week (October 27 to 28). Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh needs to explain why he is not raising interest rates while inflationary pressures remain high, while also indicating that the determination to combat inflation has not weakened and keeping the possibility of another rate hike this year.The report states that the Federal Reserve raised rates once in September, and the market had once priced in another rate hike in October. New York Fed President John Williams, Vice President Jefferson, and Governor Waller expressed at the end of September to early October that they could wait a bit longer, causing the probability of an October rate hike to drop from over 70% to less than 30%. High oil prices and the demand for materials and electricity driven by AI infrastructure increased price pressures in September. The Nasdaq 100 index has fallen more than 7% since its historical high on October 6, and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond had previously stood above 5% for several consecutive weeks.Stephen Stanley, Chief Economist at Santander U.S. Capital Markets, stated that he expects interest rates to remain unchanged this week but believes there may still be another rate hike in December. Walsh needs to explain why he is not taking action in October while also clarifying why December is still under consideration. Since taking office in May, Walsh has provided little forward guidance on the interest rate path. The press conference after the decision to hold rates steady in July caused market volatility due to overly brief wording, and subsequent hawkish remarks in August, along with the rate hike in September and signals of another hike this year, somewhat repaired communication. This week's decision is approaching the U.S. midterm elections on November 3, and Trump had previously criticized the rate hike in September.

During the IMF meeting in Bangkok, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh stated that he would not predict the outcomes of the remaining two interest rate meetings this year and was unwilling to disclose potential actions in advance. He said, "This is a new chapter for the Federal Reserve; we no longer do this." Regarding the recent signals from colleagues indicating "no urgency to raise interest rates this month," he neither explicitly supported nor refuted them. Walsh reiterated that the Federal Reserve will achieve price stability and noted that the global economy has largely aligned with central bank expectations since the interest rate hike in September, while describing the recent actions of various central banks as a synchronized tightening of monetary policy in most regions of the world.In September, the Federal Reserve unanimously raised interest rates by 25 basis points, increasing the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75% to 4%. At that time, most officials expected at least one more rate hike this year. Despite the core CPI rising by 0.33% month-on-month in September, marking a strong increase for the second consecutive month, and the latest producer price data also being robust, Walsh hardly mentioned this week's inflation report and did not significantly attempt to change market expectations for the October meeting. Reports indicated that during his speech, the dollar weakened, and market bets on an interest rate hike in October dropped from about 30% to around 17%.Additionally, Walsh believes that the U.S. is experiencing significant investment growth and holds an optimistic view on economic resilience and the productivity boost brought by AI, but he warned that the development path will be "very bumpy," and the short-term impact of AI on employment remains unclear. DBS Bank macro strategist Wei Liang Chang stated that Walsh reiterated that artificial intelligence will improve productivity in the medium term, which may help ease inflation expectations and alleviate concerns about the Federal Reserve's consecutive rate hikes. Saxo Markets Chief Investment Strategist Charu Chanana noted that Walsh's refusal to commit to another rate hike led to some bets on Federal Reserve rate hikes falling flat, and related comments did not help the dollar following the release of strong inflation data.

Federal Reserve Chair Waller stated that the Federal Reserve's Productivity and Employment Special Working Group will hold a field hearing on November 16 in the San Francisco Bay Area, focusing on topics such as the impact of artificial intelligence on the economy. Waller announced this arrangement during the IMF annual meeting in Bangkok and mentioned that the special working group will conduct an in-depth study of the effects of artificial intelligence on economic activity and the labor market.In June of this year, Waller established five special working groups composed of external experts to study key areas in monetary policy formulation. He previously indicated that these working groups are expected to submit policy recommendations to the Federal Reserve by the end of this year. Waller did not comment on monetary policy or the outlook for the U.S. economy this time.

In September, the U.S. CPI rose 3.7% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month, while the core CPI increased 2.6% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, all exceeding market expectations. Following the data release, market bets on a 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve in October rose to about 40%, up from around 20% the previous day.The Federal Reserve just raised rates by 25 basis points last month, marking its first rate hike of 2023. The next rate decision will be announced on October 28, just 6 days before the U.S. midterm elections on November 3. Inflation continues to remain above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, and economic activity remains resilient, providing grounds for further rate hikes.Economists from institutions such as Jefferies and Nationwide believe that there is data support for rate hikes in both October and December. Some analysts also expect that the Federal Reserve may consider the timing of the elections and potential economic vulnerabilities, choosing to delay until December. Historical data shows that the Federal Reserve rarely raises rates in October or November before midterm elections, and the market will be paying attention to Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh's remarks before entering the pre-meeting blackout period.

Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that the safety premium of U.S. Treasury bonds no longer exists.

According to the official schedule of the Bangkok Annual Meeting released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Federal Reserve Chairman Waller has confirmed his attendance and is scheduled to deliver a public speech on October 16 local time. This schedule has been included in the agenda by the IMF Bangkok Annual Meeting Organizing Committee.The related agenda indicates that his speech will focus on the current macroeconomic situation and monetary policy framework, with the specific content of the speech to be disclosed on-site.