Grayscale Research Director: JPMorgan Chase expects Bitcoin's annualized return to reach 10%

Grayscale's research director Zach Pandl stated that JPMorgan Asset Management will incorporate Bitcoin into its long-term investment assumptions for 2027, expecting a compound annual return of 10%, higher than other asset classes; the estimated correlation of Bitcoin with U.S. large-cap stocks is 33%.

JPMorgan expects Bitcoin's annualized volatility to be 55%, and due to its unstable correlation with other assets, it will exclude Bitcoin from its main portfolio models. Its long-term assumptions also include a return of 7.5% for U.S. large-cap stocks, 9.8% for private equity, 7% for a 60/40 stock-bond portfolio, and 5.5% for gold. JPMorgan describes Bitcoin's investment characteristics as speculative assets and notes that its portfolio allocation role is related to monetary easing; adoption, regulation, and liquidity will all affect its economic characteristics. Grayscale states that the related portfolio returns depend on future returns and changes in the relationships between assets.