jpmorgan

According to Jinshi News, JPMorgan Chase expects that the U.S. Treasury will avoid making adjustments that could imply an expansion of bond issuance when it announces its quarterly refinancing plan next week, in order to avoid disturbing the bond market before the midterm elections in November.JPMorgan Chase also anticipates a funding gap of $3.7 trillion over the next four fiscal years, and officials should adjust the long-term guidance on auction sizes to achieve the Treasury's goal of "prudent debt management."

According to Jinshi reports, JPMorgan expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged, with "maintaining rates but leaning hawkish" (probability of 50%) as the baseline scenario, which could lead to the S&P 500 index remaining flat or declining by 0.5%. Meanwhile, "maintaining rates but leaning dovish" (probability of 28%) is seen as the most favorable scenario for the market, potentially driving the index up by as much as 1%. A 25 basis point rate hike (probability of 20%) could result in the S&P 500 index declining by 1.5% to 2%.

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo are collaborating to build a shared tokenized deposit network, operated by The Clearing House, a payment company jointly owned by large banks. The plan is to convert commercial deposits into tokens that can be transferred around the clock between member banks, with a target launch in the first half of 2027.The first users of the network will be multinational corporations, with a product range that includes programmable treasury, real-time liquidity management, and cross-border payments. The Clearing House CEO David Watson stated that this project is a significant initiative for banks. JPMorgan's Kinexys platform currently processes an average daily volume of over $7 billion, having handled a total of over $40 trillion since its launch; Citi Token Services has been operating in the U.S., U.K., Singapore, and Hong Kong, transferring billions of dollars through Citigroup's own network.

KB Kookmin Bank announced that it will launch a cross-border corporate payment service based on the Kinexys blockchain payment network under JPMorgan in August, becoming the first financial institution in South Korea to apply this network for import and export enterprise settlements.It is reported that the service will initially support USD remittances, covering 10 countries including the United States, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, and is expected to shorten the cross-time zone payment time with regions such as the United States and the Middle East.

According to ChaoXiang Research, Morgan Stanley's stock strategy report on July 20 pointed out that AI-related stocks have faced fierce selling in recent weeks, with the South Korean stock market dropping 25% from its peak, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index falling 20%. Individual stocks like Samsung and Micron have seen declines between 20% and 50%. The report believes that the core driving force behind this round of decline is technical factors and position clearing, with no deterioration in fundamentals. The gap between relative prices and relative earnings trends in semiconductors continues to widen, but the supply-demand tight balance for DRAM and NAND is expected to last until 2028. DRAM spot prices remain high, and Micron has also raised its performance guidance, indicating that supply-demand tightness will last at least until 2027. The RSI of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is nearing the oversold zone, and the accumulated momentum gains for the year have basically been retraced.Morgan Stanley believes that once the oversold signal is confirmed, a rebound window will open, and it suggests that investors gradually position themselves in semiconductors during the summer. The proportion of second-quarter earnings reports exceeding expectations reached 97%, and companies in the S&P 500 that reported better-than-expected earnings outperformed the market by an average of 1.7 percentage points on the day of the report. In terms of allocation, Morgan Stanley has raised its equity allocation from 60% to 65%, increased its Eurozone allocation from 8.7% to 11%, and is overweight in sectors such as semiconductors, mining, capital goods, automotive, insurance, and banking, while underweighting software, business services, and media in the "AI erosion group." Regarding geopolitical conflicts, the report believes that the "buying on dips" strategy since the end of March remains effective.

According to The Block, JPMorgan analysts stated that the recent increase in cash reserves and positive capital inflows into Bitcoin futures for Strategy are "encouraging signs" for Bitcoin's prospects, although the capital flow for spot Bitcoin ETFs remains unstable.Strategy's dollar reserves have increased from $2.55 billion to $3 billion, covering approximately 20 months of preferred stock dividends. JPMorgan previously indicated that if Strategy could rebuild sufficient dollar reserves to cover two to three years of dividends, it could alleviate market concerns about the possibility of being forced to sell Bitcoin in the future.Regarding ETFs, the capital flow for spot Bitcoin ETFs has been highly volatile in recent weeks, with inflows last week turning into outflows this week. In contrast, the capital flow for leveraged ETFs related to Strategy has remained stable with continuous positive inflows over the past seven weeks. Analysts believe that this buying pressure mainly comes from retail investors, which may support Strategy's stock price and prevent its common stock from falling below the net asset value of its Bitcoin holdings. Analysts noted that despite the outflows from the spot ETF this week, Bitcoin futures still recorded positive inflows, which is encouraging.

According to BBX data, yesterday the two flagship institutions on Wall Street released their Q2 2026 financial reports on the same day, forming an important institutional narrative anchor regarding AI infrastructure and digital assets. The core dynamics are as follows:The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE: $GS) released its Q2 2026 financial report on July 14, with CEO David Solomon providing the strongest institutional endorsement of AI infrastructure to date during the earnings call: "AI infrastructure is in the early innings of a multi-year investment cycle," and stated that the company expects to finance most of the AI infrastructure development, driving growth in mergers and acquisitions, debt and equity issuance, and lending opportunities. This assessment highly resonates with Goldman’s ongoing positioning in the crypto ecosystem: Q1 2026 13F shows the company holds approximately $700 million in iShares Bitcoin Trust ($IBIT) positions, while simultaneously liquidating all positions in XRP ETF and Solana ETF, and increasing holdings in Circle ($CRCL), Galaxy Digital ($GLXY), and Coinbase ($COIN) stocks; the company applied to the SEC for a Bitcoin Premium Income ETF (covered call option structure) on April 14; and on June 12, completed a $75 billion fundraising as the lead underwriter for SpaceX's largest IPO in history. Solomon's "early innings" assertion is a public confirmation that Goldman views AI infrastructure investment and crypto asset allocation as part of the same long-term narrative.JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: $JPM) also released its Q2 2026 financial report on July 14. According to CoinDesk Live Updates, CEO Jamie Dimon identified the rapid construction of AI computing infrastructure as a core driver of corporate investment and financing demand during the earnings call, forming a rare cross-institutional consensus with Goldman and BofA. JPMorgan has previously maintained a cautious stance on crypto regulation, but its statements in the AI data center financing sector are becoming a foundation for its entry into adjacent crypto tracks (including loans to AI mining companies and tokenized bond underwriting). Notably, JPMorgan has previously issued multiple warnings of "time running out" during the CLARITY Act legislative process, and this financial report did not provide a new legislative timeline assessment, but the strong qualitative outlook for AI infrastructure indicates that the bank will continue to provide financing services to AI mining clients such as TeraWulf and IREN, further deepening its balance sheet exposure to the crypto ecosystem.

According to Jinshi reports, JPMorgan strategists advise investors to close positions on the flattening of the 10-year to 30-year U.S. Treasury yield curve ahead of the U.S. CPI data release and Federal Reserve Chairman Waller's first testimony before Congress to address the upcoming event risks.The strategists stated that due to the escalation of geopolitical tensions and hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials, short-end U.S. Treasury yields rose by 6 basis points, and the yield curve flattened by 3 basis points. Waller expressed concerns that high inflation may become entrenched in market inflation expectations, stating that if CPI data continues to show strong core inflation pressures, the Federal Reserve will need to consider tightening monetary policy in the near term.

According to CoinDesk, the UK government is accelerating the process of tokenizing financial markets, with 54 financial institutions including BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, HSBC, and UBS joining the wholesale digital market working group supported by HM Treasury.The working group, supported by the City of London Corporation, will explore practical tokenization application scenarios in the UK financial market over the next year, initially focusing on tokenized repurchase agreements (tokenised repo).Chris Woolard, head of the wholesale digital market at HM Treasury, stated in the report that the tokenized financial market is a "network competition," and the UK must advance as quickly as possible, or it may miss the opportunity to participate in the construction of global digital financial infrastructure.

According to CNBC, as concerns about insider trading arise from prediction markets, Goldman Sachs has prohibited employees from trading contracts related to the bank's own events, elections, financial markets, macroeconomic data, and geopolitical issues. Financial institutions such as Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, and Bank of America are formulating or updating relevant policies, with Bank of America explicitly prohibiting certain behaviors related to prediction market trading for its employees.Previously, the CFTC and the Department of Justice charged a Google employee with profiting approximately $1.2 million by trading "annual search" related contracts on Polymarket using non-public information. Legal experts stated that the CFTC is "still a blank slate" in terms of insider trading enforcement, but the variety of contract types on the platform makes comprehensive regulation difficult. Kalshi and Polymarket have respectively launched employment verification tools and collaborated with Chainalysis and Palantir to monitor suspicious activities. Lawyers recommend that companies update their insider trading policies to cover event contracts, establish monitoring agreements, and even prohibit access to prediction markets on company devices.

According to The Block, JPMorgan analysts pointed out that Strategy's recent sell-off of Bitcoin and its BTC monetization plan may bring temporary selling pressure, but it is not the main structural risk for Bitcoin. The greater risk lies in blockchain applications (including payments, clearing, RWA, etc.) increasingly shifting towards bank-built or regulatory-friendly permissioned chains and unified ledgers, rather than public chains.If tokenized deposits, SWIFT blockchain projects, central bank digital currencies, etc., are implemented within traditional financial infrastructure, and settlements adopt more private or delayed netting models, the activity, liquidity, and capital flow of public chains and tokens may be weakened, and the demand for stablecoins may also be partially replaced by bank tokenized deposits, thereby suppressing Bitcoin's performance. Analysts stated that a hybrid architecture, favorable regulation for public chain stablecoins, or a strengthened "digital gold" narrative may correct the above judgment.

According to ChaoXiang Research, the latest global semiconductor weekly report from JPMorgan points out that the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index saw an increase of 88% in the second quarter, marking the strongest single-quarter performance in the index's history. However, institutions believe that this increase is difficult to sustain unless profits are realized or the capital expenditure growth of cloud vendors truly slows down.Position data shows that the momentum factor holdings have fallen 17% from the June peak. After hardware semiconductor crowded long positions outperformed crowded short positions by nearly 40 percentage points in June, there have been continuous net sell-offs in July. The overall position percentile of U.S. stocks has dropped from the 60th percentile to the 40th percentile within a month.

JPMorgan analysts stated that Michael Saylor's Strategy recently officially launched a Bitcoin selling policy, transforming the company from a pure BTC buyer into a potential seller, introducing "avoidable two-way risk" to the crypto market. Strategy's Bitcoin selling policy is called the BTC Monetization Program, allowing the company to sell Bitcoin to raise up to $1.25 billion in cash reserves for paying preferred stock dividends and interest expenses, or for repurchasing preferred stock and common stock to optimize its capital structure.JPMorgan believes that if Strategy may sell BTC in the future, it will increase market uncertainty and volatility regarding Bitcoin prices. Analysts noted that if the company instead supplemented future dividend payment reserves through equity issuance, this risk could have been avoided. Strategy currently has a minimum cash reserve target set to cover 12 months of preferred stock dividends and interest expenses, with the current $2.55 billion cash reserve approximately covering 17 months of dividends. JPMorgan believes the company should increase its cash reserves to cover 24 to 36 months of related obligations, even if this may lead to common stock trading at a discount to net asset value, it would reassure investors that the company will not be forced to sell Bitcoin in the short term.

According to CoinPost, Kinexys, a blockchain division of JPMorgan, announced the addition of five currencies to its Blockchain Deposit Account (BDA) network: Australian Dollar (AUD), Hong Kong Dollar (HKD), Japanese Yen (JPY), Renminbi (RMB), and Singapore Dollar (SGD). This expands the total supported currencies to eight, including the existing Euro, British Pound, and US Dollar, making it the platform with the most supported currencies in the global blockchain settlement and on-chain foreign exchange field.The BDA operates on JPMorgan's private blockchain, supporting 24/7 settlement and programmable payment features. Japanese energy giant JERA Global Markets became the first enterprise to adopt the Yen BDA, aimed at optimizing internal fund flow management and liquidity allocation. Currently, Kinexys has processed a cumulative transaction volume exceeding $40 trillion, with a daily transaction volume of over $7 billion.

According to Reuters, Nasdaq has confirmed that SpaceX (SPCX) will be included in the Nasdaq 100 Index on July 7, which may bring a wave of passive fund buying for the stock. Inclusion in the index typically boosts stock prices, as ETFs that track the performance of the relevant index need to purchase shares of newly included companies. JPMorgan expects that SpaceX's inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 Index could bring in $4.3 billion in passive fund inflows.SpaceX went public on Nasdaq on June 12. To attract more companies to list in the U.S., Nasdaq and index providers such as FTSE Russell and MSCI have previously relaxed some inclusion requirements, including profitability, days since listing, and the number of tradable shares. SpaceX has fluctuated between significant losses and small profits over the past three years, with a net loss of $4.9 billion last year.Michael Field, Chief Equity Market Strategist at Morningstar, stated, "Clearly, there is strong market demand, which is why they are quickly including it in the index." He added that many people will be satisfied with this, but some fund managers and skeptics may not agree, as Morningstar believes the stock is overvalued. Investors typically gain broader market exposure through funds that track the Nasdaq 100 Index, such as Invesco's QQQ and QQQM. Additionally, large language model companies like OpenAI and Anthropic are also expected to submit IPO applications this year or next and may seek valuations exceeding $1 trillion.However, S&P Global stated this month that it will not adjust the requirements for SpaceX to enter major indices like the S&P 500 and will consider including it in relevant indices only after at least 12 months.

During the 2026 New York Tech Week, Zack Anderson, Chief Data and Analytics Officer of J.P. Morgan Payments, shared the latest applications and strategic outlook of AI in payment infrastructure at a seminar. He stated that the application of AI in the banking industry is becoming increasingly mature, with most AI agents currently operating invisibly in the background, significantly enhancing the efficiency of payment flows and risk management capabilities.Anderson pointed out that with the proliferation of Agentic AI, the core challenge facing the payment sector lies in the governance and auditability of "machine authorization" (especially for high-value payments). He emphasized that leveraging AI to handle complex cross-border payment compliance rules is an important opportunity in the near term, which is expected to significantly reduce payment rejection rates. Furthermore, although current corporate AI investments are largely focused on the customer front end, "Agentic Treasury" will be an important early opportunity for the future, and its large-scale application will still rely on further improvement of underlying data and governance infrastructure.

According to Jinshi reports, JPMorgan stated that the U.S. stock market is approaching a "blue sky scenario," primarily due to corporate earnings growth exceeding expectations and the hope that the tensions surrounding the Iran conflict can be eased through diplomatic agreements.

According to Jinshi reports, JPMorgan has raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 index to 7,800 points, believing that the outlook is approaching a "clear sky" scenario.

According to the official announcement, Bitget's stock derivatives have launched 10 underlying assets including KLAC (KLA Corporation), JPM (JPMorgan Chase), GEV (General Electric Vernova), GS (Goldman Sachs), LIN (Linde Group), covering areas such as semiconductor equipment, financial services, energy transition, and ETFs in the South Korean market.

According to CoinDesk, JPMorgan's latest report indicates that as more miners operate close to breakeven, the Bitcoin mining network is showing a higher sensitivity to price changes, with the response of hash rate and mining difficulty to price fluctuations significantly enhanced. The analysis shows that the "elasticity coefficient" of mining difficulty relative to Bitcoin price changes has risen to 0.62 over the past six months, indicating that the hash rate is responding more quickly to market changes.Analysts state that Bitcoin prices have been below production costs for five consecutive months, with approximately 20% of miners currently in a loss-making position. Under profit pressure, publicly listed mining companies have increased their Bitcoin selling scale, with sales exceeding 32,000 BTC in the first quarter alone, surpassing the total for the entire year of 2025. As some high-cost mining machines shut down, the network hash rate declines, and mining difficulty adjusts accordingly.JPMorgan expects that as long as Bitcoin remains below the production cost of about $78,000, the high sensitivity of mining to price fluctuations will continue to exist. At the same time, some mining companies are turning to artificial intelligence and high-performance computing businesses to seek more stable sources of income.