TrendForce: The contract price of high-capacity NOR Flash may rise by 90%–110% in the second half of the year
TrendForce's latest research on the memory industry indicates that the NOR Flash market is experiencing the most significant supply-demand structural change in nearly a decade. AI-related products are absorbing a large amount of capacity, and suppliers find it difficult to significantly increase NOR Flash bit output even as demand for high-end applications continues to grow. Therefore, supply and demand are expected to remain imbalanced in the second half of 2026, with overall contract prices remaining high.Although suppliers in Taiwan and China have increased capital expenditures and expanded production, the new capacity cannot be immediately converted into market supply. New output must first go through process migration, yield ramp-up, product certification, and customer design integration, making it difficult to alleviate the short-term supply shortage in the mid-to-high capacity segment. Winbond expects the strongest bit growth in 2026, driven by the full-scale production of 45nm NOR and the migration to 25nm and 20nm. GigaDevice is upgrading the process for products of 32Mb and above, with effective output limited in the first half of the year. MXIC will prioritize additional 12-inch capacity for NAND and eMMC, limiting the growth of NOR wafer input.In 2026, AI and aerospace communication will become the main sources of new demand. The NOR usage in AI servers is 3-5 times that of traditional servers, with high-density demand driven by edge AI, AI PCs, robotics, and low Earth orbit satellites. In the first half of 2026, the average cumulative contract price is expected to rise by 100-120%. In the second half, the average price of products of 256Mb and above may increase by another 90-110%, while prices for products of 128Mb and below are expected to rise by 10-20% in Q4 2026.