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SemiAnalysis Founder: By 2028, most of the new AI computing power will belong to two companies

In the latest podcast, SemiAnalysis founder Dylan Patel predicts that by 2028, OpenAI and Anthropic may account for 70% to 80% of the world's new AI computing power, with the total computing power scale potentially exceeding 100GW. Patel stated that the two companies currently account for about 30% of the world's annual new computing power, and this proportion is still rising rapidly.Patel pointed out that the business model of leading AI laboratories is changing, with a significant increase in the efficiency of AI computing power output. Currently, Anthropic's revenue per megawatt of computing power has reached about $50 million and may further rise to $100 million. This allows OpenAI and Anthropic to procure or lease computing power at high prices ranging from $25 million to $50 million per megawatt.Patel expects that global AI-related capital expenditures will reach about $11 trillion from 2024 to 2029, with over $5 trillion needing to be financed through debt. Due to the potential return on investment of AI infrastructure being far higher than that of traditional industries, tech giants may accept higher financing costs, thereby pushing up overall credit rates and squeezing the valuations of traditional assets and highly leveraged economies. Additionally, Patel believes that the new computing power may not primarily be used for providing model inference services externally, but may instead flow more towards internal research and development and self-improvement of models within AI laboratories.

WSJ: Stablecoins essentially belong to "private currency" and may pose risks to the financial system

The Wall Street Journal published an article pointing out that although the GENIUS Act and the CLARITY Act are promoting the compliance of stablecoins, the essence of stablecoins still belongs to "private currency," which may pose structural risks to the financial system.The article notes that stablecoins aim to combine the stability of the US dollar with the efficiency of blockchain payments, but because they operate on fragmented, privatized infrastructure, they do not possess the unity of the traditional US dollar system. Although USDT and USDC are pegged to the dollar, their prices may still deviate from 1 dollar.In addition, there is an incentive for stablecoin issuers to enhance returns by allocating high-risk, low-liquidity assets. If the value of these related assets declines, it could trigger de-pegging and concentrated redemption risks. The article cites Chainalysis data stating that stablecoins account for 84% of illegal activities in cryptocurrency, mainly involving sanctions evasion and money laundering, while real economic payment scenarios account for less than 1%.The Wall Street Journal believes that stablecoins are replaying the path of private currency experiments from the "Free Banking Era" in 19th century America, and in the future, they may need to accept stricter regulation like banks and integrate more deeply into the central bank system.
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