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According to the Industrial and Commercial Times, the supply chain reveals that TSMC's CoWoS pricing is brewing a new wave of increases, with an increase of up to 20%. Some packaging delivery times have already been extended, and the pressure from tight capacity continues to rise. The rush for capacity has spread to the equipment side, and customers have no time to negotiate prices; as long as they can promise delivery times, they place orders, with equipment delivery times extending to a maximum of 8 months.Chip manufacturers point out that the demand for advanced packaging has spread from AI GPUs to server CPUs and customized ASICs, with unfulfilled orders continuing to increase. The testing time for AI chips has lengthened, putting pressure on the synchronization of packaging and testing capacity. Wafer foundries and packaging testing companies are preparing to adjust CoWoS pricing, estimating an increase of 10% to 20%. Equipment manufacturers reveal that TSMC has not renegotiated prices this year, directly purchasing at original prices without any increase in equipment functionality, with equipment delivery times extending from the past 3 to 6 months to 6 to 8 months.TSMC Chairman C.C. Wei stated at the recent earnings call that CoWoS remains the first choice for customers, with five-fold photomask size packaging already in mass production, and the development of nine-fold and fourteen-fold photomask size solutions is ongoing, while advancing CoPoS technology. Analysts estimate that by 2026, CoWoS monthly production capacity will advance to over 130,000 pieces, aiming for 200,000 pieces by 2027; related layouts include Chiayi AP7, Tainan AP8, and AP6, with the advanced packaging plant in the U.S. AP1 planned to start production in 2028.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction on Polymarket for the "Cowboys vs. Eagles" event, the "Eagles" option in the sub-market "1H Spread -9.5" has experienced significant fluctuations in winning probability, soaring from 12.5% an hour ago to the current 29% (a fluctuation of 16.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the Polymarket event "Cowboys vs. Eagles," the "Eagles" option in the sub-market "1H Spread -9.5" experienced a dramatic fluctuation in winning probability, dropping from 30% an hour ago to the current 12% (a fluctuation of 18%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, the probability of the "Yes" option in the sub-market "Cedric Coward: Points O/U 13.5" for the event "Bears vs. Kings" on the prediction market Polymarket has experienced significant fluctuations, soaring from 21.5% an hour ago to the current 45.5% (a fluctuation of 24%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the Polymarket event "Cowboys vs. Packers," the "Cowboys" option in the sub-market "2H Spread -2.5" has experienced significant fluctuations in winning probability, soaring from 50% an hour ago to the current 65.5% (a fluctuation of 15.5%). Please note the impact of relevant breaking news.

According to The Block, TD Cowen analysts have raised the target price for Bitcoin treasury company Strive from $44 to $56, maintaining a "Buy" rating. Analysts Lance Vitanza and Jonnathan Navarrete noted that the amount of Bitcoin purchased by Strive in the past two weeks has exceeded their previous expectations for the entire fourth quarter.The company's Bitcoin holdings increased from 28,000 coins at the end of September to 35,595 coins (worth approximately $2.9 billion), a net increase of nearly 7,600 coins, far exceeding TD Cowen's original estimate of 4,750 coins. Strive has now jumped to fourth place among publicly traded companies in terms of Bitcoin holdings, slightly surpassing MARA. Additionally, Strive plans to expand its preferred stock issuance to 7 million shares (at $90 per share), aiming to raise $630 million to continue increasing its Bitcoin holdings without diluting common stock. The issuance is expected to be completed on October 20.

Investment bank TD Cowen's Washington research group Managing Director Jaret Seiberg stated in a report released on Monday that the proposed rulemaking advance notice issued by the CFTC last week is a positive step for crypto platforms, but the agency may not complete the rulemaking until early 2028. As the 2028 election cycle approaches, there is a risk that the rule may ultimately not be implemented. Seiberg noted, "Time is running out," and expects that the CFTC will not issue proposals until the end of the first quarter or early second quarter of 2027, with final rules possibly not being finalized until early 2028.Last week, the CFTC proposed a federal regulatory framework for crypto platforms but avoided direct jurisdiction over spot market trading. According to Seiberg, the proposed rules will require platforms to maintain "reserve proof audits" and grant the CFTC jurisdiction over state-licensed platforms. Previously, the U.S. Senate failed to pass legislation that would grant the CFTC broad powers over spot crypto trading in a preliminary vote, leading the CFTC and SEC to intervene in regulating the crypto industry, including the introduction of long-awaited innovation exemptions, but both agencies lack the permanence that legislation could provide.Seiberg also pointed out that if the CFTC decides to expedite the rulemaking process, it may actually increase the risk of court intervention. He stated that speeding up this process would raise the risk of judges blocking the rule on procedural grounds, and even if the agency is cautious enough, legal challenges could extend beyond 2028.

The largest securities exchange in Russia, the Moscow Exchange, is conducting a pilot program for cryptocurrency trading with professional participants, planning to launch regulated cryptocurrency trading services on December 1. Boris Blokhin, Managing Director of the Exchange's Securities Market, stated that the relevant tests began a week ago. Boris Blokhin pointed out that the existing licenses of the Moscow Exchange already cover cryptocurrency trading services, and there is no need to apply for additional permits or licenses.The relevant regulations for the cryptocurrency market in Russia came into effect on September 1, allowing citizens to trade cryptocurrencies on domestic exchanges licensed by the Central Bank of Russia. Investors who do not qualify as accredited investors will face investment limits, and trading will be restricted to Bitcoin, Ethereum, and USDT. Sberbank expects that the scale of cryptocurrency trading in Russia in its first year will reach at least 4 trillion rubles, with only 20% completed through exchanges, while the remaining approximately 80% will still occur through unregulated channels.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the Polymarket event "Buccaneers vs. Cowboys," the "Buccaneers" option in the sub-market "1H Spread -16.5" has experienced significant fluctuations in winning probability, soaring from 3.15% one hour ago to the current 22.5% (a fluctuation of 19.35%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to TASS, the Moscow Exchange plans to offer cryptocurrency trading services under the new regulatory framework starting from December 1.Boris Blokhin, Senior Managing Director of the Moscow Exchange, stated that the exchange will continue relevant testing work before the official launch.

TD Cowen Managing Director Lance Vitanza stated at the Bitcoin Treasuries conference in New York that institutional investors are no longer debating whether to hold Bitcoin, but rather discussing how to hold it. He predicts that the price of Bitcoin will reach $132,000 by 2027.Vitanza pointed out that Bitcoin is evolving from a single asset into a capital market ecosystem that encompasses common stocks, preferred stocks, bonds, and income-generating products. He analyzed the assessment methods for digital credit and which Bitcoin treasury companies can survive in a market downturn, mentioning Strive, Metaplanet, and Nakamoto, emphasizing the importance of having actual operating businesses.He also discussed the potential impact of MSCI index exclusions on Bitcoin treasury companies, as well as blockchain monitoring, front-running behavior, and trust issues regarding Bitcoin prices. He believes that well-operated Bitcoin treasury companies may perform better than Bitcoin itself.

TD COWEN initiated coverage on SpaceX, giving it a buy rating with a target price of $200.

Watcher Guru reported that the Moscow Exchange in Russia has launched perpetual futures for five major cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, XRP, and Tron.The Moscow Exchange is the main securities exchange in Russia. This product covers perpetual futures contracts for the five cryptocurrencies mentioned above.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) established a five-year framework for tokenized stock trading days after the failure to advance the CLARITY Act. Investment bank TD Cowen stated that U.S. investors can conveniently access stocks, but issuers show limited interest in tokenization, and short-term adoption rates are expected to be low.TD Cowen pointed out that perpetual contracts remain a greater attraction for gaining exposure to crypto asset stocks, with trading volumes far exceeding those of tokenized spot products.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction on Polymarket for the "Commanders vs. Cowboys" event, the "Commanders" option in the sub-market "1H Spread -16.5" experienced a dramatic fluctuation in winning probability, soaring from 6.5% an hour ago to the current 46% (a fluctuation of 39.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

The largest securities exchange in Russia, the Moscow Exchange (MOEX), will launch perpetual futures for BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, and TRX indices on September 22, available for trading only by qualified investors. The relevant contracts are quoted in USD and settled in RUB cash, without involving the delivery of the underlying assets.Since the launch of digital asset futures, over 72,000 qualified investors have participated, with a total trading volume exceeding 600 billion RUB.

Anthropic announced that starting today, Claude Cowork and chat will merge into the same Claude. Users can ask brief questions or deliver deadline tasks, and Claude can continue processing even after the computer is turned off. This capability will be rolled out to Pro and Max plans in the coming weeks, followed by more plans.Claude Docs and Claude Slides will launch simultaneously, and Claude Design is now available for use in conversations. Users can co-write documents or draft slides with Claude, supporting direct editing, presenting in Claude, and downloading as PowerPoint or PDF. The three features are currently in testing for paid plans, and enterprise administrators can decide when to enable them; the standalone Claude Design can still be used as usual.Anthropic stated that previously, Cowork and Design belonged to different entrances, making task attribution and context connection inconvenient. Claude can now determine the capabilities required for tasks and call upon existing context, skills, and connectors in any conversation. Chat users do not need to change their operations; Cowork users can retain chats, projects, products, connectors, and skills. Team and Free plans will be launched subsequently, and enterprise administrators will be informed of organizational changes at least 30 days in advance.

As we enter the late third quarter of 2026, TSMC's 3nm and 2nm advanced process and CoWoS advanced packaging capacity continue to be in high demand. NVIDIA and Apple continue to dominate the resources for advanced processes and packaging; Amazon AWS's Annapurna has recently increased its AI self-developed chip production, securing more 3nm capacity. MediaTek, in addition to mobile chips, is also competing for 2/3nm process and CoWoS-S/L capacity with large orders related to Google TPU.There are reports that TSMC has recently readjusted its capacity allocation. After MediaTek secured a large order from Google TPU, the next-generation TPU v9 will simultaneously use TSMC's CoWoS-L and Intel's EMIB-T, which has slightly adjusted MediaTek's 3nm and 2nm capacity arrangements. Currently, TSMC's main customer for 3nm is NVIDIA, which is expected to surpass Apple to become the largest customer by 2025; the demand for 2nm is primarily from Apple and others. After AWS increased Annapurna's production, its 3nm and CoWoS configuration priority has improved.Starting in early 2026, TSMC will accelerate capacity expansion, with the 2nm monthly capacity of Hsinchu Baoshan Fab 20 and Kaohsiung Fab 22 reaching 50,000 wafers each by the end of October, totaling about 100,000 wafers; by the end of October, the monthly capacity for 3nm in Tainan Science Park is about 185,000 wafers. As of the end of September, the overall capacity utilization rate is about 96.2%, with 100% utilization for processes below 16/12nm down to 2nm. The shortage of CoWoS supply has driven advanced packaging orders to overflow, with the priority for orders going to ASE Group's Siliconware Precision Industries first, followed by Amkor, and Chipbond, among others. Chipbond's related testing and packaging capacity is fully loaded, with order visibility extending to 2028.

TD Cowen analyst Lance Vitanza set the Bitcoin price target for the end of 2026 at $97,500, indicating about a 25% upside from the recent price level of around $78,000. Meanwhile, TD Cowen has lowered its previous benchmark forecast of about $140,000 for the end of 2026 to around $100,000, significantly reducing its previously more optimistic long-term expectations. Vitanza stated that this downgrade is mainly due to the recent weakness in Bitcoin prices, rather than a deterioration in company-level or market structure.Currently, BTC's recent trading range is approximately $58,400 to $78,000, with a maximum drawdown of over 50% from the previous high of over $126,000, and a monthly drawdown that once exceeded 20%. A clearer regulatory environment and inclusion in broader indices are still viewed by TD Cowen as potential catalysts for market recovery. For Strategy, TD Cowen has lowered its target price from $400 to $260 but maintains a "Buy" rating. This adjustment mainly follows the downward revision of Bitcoin price forecasts, rather than a change in the view of Strategy's operational performance or capital structure. Additionally, TD Cowen has initiated coverage on Strive, expecting the company to hold over 27,100 BTC by the end of 2026, and has given it a target price of $32, indicating about a 33% upside.