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According to Gate market data, influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike expectations, Asian currencies generally weakened against the US dollar in the morning session. The market expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points this week, with the probability rising to 88%.The US dollar rose 0.3% against the South Korean won and the Japanese yen, trading at 1,345.8 and 154.06, respectively; the Australian dollar fell 0.2% against the US dollar, trading at 0.7151.

Barclays economists stated that the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision makes this week's FOMC meeting the focus of the market. If the Federal Reserve unexpectedly keeps interest rates unchanged, or if the rate hike is lower than expected, it could lead to a short-term weakening of the dollar.

JPMorgan expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in September and December 2026, up from the previous forecast of a single rate hike in December.

This week, global markets enter a central bank super week. The Federal Reserve's FOMC will announce its interest rate decision and economic projections summary at 2 AM Beijing time on Thursday, followed by a monetary policy press conference by Chairman Powell; the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan will also announce their decisions on Thursday and Friday, respectively. Meanwhile, the U.S. Senate will hold a key procedural vote on the CLARITY Act on Tuesday local time, and the SEC will hold a roundtable discussion on 24-hour trading on the same day.Tuesday: Key procedural vote on the Cryptocurrency Market Structure Act (i.e., CLARITY Act); U.S. ADP employment change for the week ending August 29; U.S. September New York Fed Manufacturing Index. Wednesday: U.S. API crude oil inventories for the week ending September 11; U.S. August retail sales month-on-month, U.S. August import price index month-on-month, U.S. September NAHB housing market index; U.S. July business inventories month-on-month, U.S. EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending September 11.Thursday: Federal Reserve FOMC announces interest rate decision (2 AM Beijing time on Thursday) and economic projections summary, Federal Reserve Chairman holds a monetary policy press conference; U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending September 12; Bank of England announces interest rate decision and meeting minutes; SEC holds a roundtable discussion on 24-hour trading. Friday: Bank of Japan announces interest rate decision, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda holds a monetary policy press conference.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring on-chain data, significant capital movements are predicted in the Polymarket market. A large whale invested $51,350 in a single bet on the "Federal Reserve's September decision" event, targeting "no change." Based on the current transaction price, the latest corresponding winning probability for this bet is 79%.

Arthur Hayes posted on the X platform that, aside from AI safety risks, if companies like Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX no longer act as buyers of computing power, the U.S. government may need to take on that role; another scenario is that if the demand for computing power disappears, leading to defaults on related AI debts, the Federal Reserve may need to "print money" to rescue the insurance institutions holding those debts. Hayes stated that regardless of which option is chosen, it will ultimately need to be resolved through monetary expansion, jokingly referring to this situation as "Yachtzee."

The central banks of the United States, Japan, and the United Kingdom will announce their monetary policy decisions this week, with the market focusing on whether the Federal Reserve will initiate its first interest rate hike in three years.Iran and Gulf countries are negotiating shipping management in the Strait of Hormuz to address high crude oil prices.

Goldman Sachs stated that the renewed rise in expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes may trigger traders to unwind their hedge positions, leading to a more severe adjustment in gold prices than usual.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring on-chain data, it predicts significant capital movements in the Polymarket market. A large whale invested $87,057.89 in a single transaction regarding the "Federal Reserve's September decision" event, targeting a "25 basis point increase." Based on the current transaction price, the latest corresponding winning probability for this subject is 80.61%.

Goldman Sachs economist Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo stated: "Today's CPI largely meets expectations, which on the surface is the result investors hoped for, but it indeed heightens the suspense for next week's interest rate decision. The challenge is that the data does not fully reflect the recent emergence of some inflationary pressures, and there is little evidence that inflation is returning to target in the short term. The survey period for this report predates the latest round of energy price increases and also predates the surge in commodities spreading from energy to metals and agriculture. Today's inflation data does not eliminate the possibility of stronger price pressures emerging in the future.In summary, today's data that meets expectations will allow the Federal Reserve to keep the option of raising interest rates, but it will not be forced to act, so the market may focus more on Waller's communications, energy prices, labor market data, and what happens next, rather than on what was released today."

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the event of "Federal Reserve September Decision" on the market Polymarket, the sub-market "No Change" option's probability of "Yes" has experienced drastic fluctuations, plummeting from 38.5% an hour ago to the current 18.5% (a fluctuation of 20%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

Most economists expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at this month's meeting and maintain this until the end of 2027, despite rising market expectations for a rate hike.Surveys show that only 13 economists anticipate a rate increase this month, while the market believes there is a 70% chance of a rate hike next week. Yelena Shulyatyeva warned that rising inflation could change the current situation.

According to BIT's weekly report "On Target," BIT analysts pointed out that there are two key catalytic factors in the current market: first, the scale of U.S. debt has surpassed the psychological threshold of $40 trillion, and second, U.S. Treasury yields are approaching the critical level of 5%. Since July 24, Bitcoin has risen by 22%, and gold has increased by 9.4%, confirming previous judgments.The macro cycle model shows that the current market is in the first phase of cyclical re-inflation, which is usually accompanied by a weakening dollar and rising commodity prices. Historical data indicates that during this phase: the annualized return rate of U.S. stocks is about 29%, the annualized return rate of gold is about 47%, and the annualized return rate of Bitcoin is about 73%. Additionally, between 2020 and 2026, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of U.S. debt has reached 8.59%, while the M2 money supply CAGR is 6.02%, far exceeding the CPI of 4.11%. Long-term inflationary pressures continue to accumulate, further supporting the allocation logic for gold and Bitcoin.

After the release of U.S. data, U.S. short-term interest rate futures fell slightly, and the market increased its bets on a rate hike by the Federal Reserve.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring on-chain data, it predicts significant capital movements in the Polymarket market. A large whale invested $56,235.86 in a single transaction regarding the "Federal Reserve's September decision" event, targeting a "25 basis point rate hike." Based on the current transaction price, the latest corresponding winning probability for this asset is 46%.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring on-chain data, it predicts significant capital movements in the Polymarket market. A large whale invested $93,687.26 in a single buy on the "Federal Reserve's September decision" event, betting on "no change." Based on the current transaction price, the latest corresponding winning probability for this target is 46.52%.

Payment company Block, founded by Jack Dorsey, submitted an application to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) on Tuesday to establish a non-insured national trust bank named Builders Bank & Trust, N.A. Block stated that if approved, the bank would offer custodial and other trust services, including Bitcoin and stablecoins, and the federal charter would establish a federal regulatory framework for some of the custodial services currently offered by Block.Block's application comes at a time when more and more fintech and crypto companies are seeking federal banking charters. Last week, Revolut received conditional approval from the OCC, following approvals for companies like Coinbase, Paxos, BitGo, Ripple, and Circle. The OCC also recently granted conditional approval to World Liberty Financial, supported by the Trump family, which has raised scrutiny in Washington regarding potential conflicts of interest.Since 2025, the OCC has received 40 applications for new bank charters, of which 21 have been approved and 2 have been denied.