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Documents obtained by The Intercept through a lawsuit under the Freedom of Information Act show that the U.S. Department of Defense once requested OpenAI to provide a version of artificial intelligence specifically tailored for the military, with a "very low refusal rate" for commands. This statement appeared in the updated contract for the 2025 prototype agreement "P00003," which is a two-year agreement worth up to $200 million, covering logistics, intelligence decision-making, and operational uses. OpenAI, Google, xAI, and Anthropic all agreed to develop such militarized prototypes in 2025.OpenAI spokesperson Nate Evans stated that the company never agreed to contract terms that included a "very low refusal rate," and the relevant documents were early drafts from the Department of Defense, with the final executed contract not containing that statement. Department of Defense spokesperson Jacob Bliss also indicated that the phrase did not appear in any current contracts. The Intercept pointed out that the documents obtained were not marked as drafts; a Department of Justice lawyer representing the Pentagon once confirmed that the document was a signed executed version, but later requested to disregard that confirmation and stated that further investigation was needed.The latest contract signed on February 27 allows OpenAI services to be deployed on military classified networks, with similar delivery terms completely redacted. OpenAI stated that it has drawn a red line regarding autonomous killing and surveillance of Americans, but the contract text allows the government to determine any use as legal.

According to Fox News, senior U.S. officials stated that the U.S. military has struck targets near Hormuz Island and Jask, including Iranian oil tankers. This is part of a larger operation to economically squeeze Iran, with strategies that include sinking and incapacitating Iranian crude oil tankers.

According to CoinDesk, after the U.S. military intensified airstrikes on Iranian targets, Brent crude oil surpassed $93 per barrel, and WTI approached $90 per barrel, pushing the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield up to nearly 4.8%. Risk assets are under pressure, with Bitcoin briefly dropping below $76,500, down more than 1% from midnight, and a nearly 3% correction over the past week.In terms of derivatives, Coinglass data shows that the long-short taker transaction ratio shifted to favor short positions, accounting for about 51.5%, while the overall open interest remained at around 700,000 BTC, indicating that leverage has not significantly increased. The open interest in ETH futures slightly rose alongside a price drop, interpreted as a buildup of short positions. UNI continued to rise, while TRX short positions remained crowded, and the implied volatility of BTC and ETH fell back to previous levels.

The U.S. Central Command stated that 50,000 stationed U.S. troops are executing a maritime blockade against Iran, and the U.S. military is ensuring the free passage of commercial navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.

The U.S. Central Command stated that the troops successfully cleared mines allegedly laid by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard in the international shipping lanes of the Strait of Hormuz.The Strait of Hormuz is now open, and transit traffic volume continues to increase.

The latest research from the Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC) shows that at least 152 anonymous wallets on Polymarket may have profited approximately $8 million by trading on advanced knowledge of U.S. military and defense-related information, achieving an average win rate of 97.2%. However, the research institution emphasizes that blockchain data itself cannot prove the actual identities of the controllers of these wallets, nor can it confirm the sources of their information, and therefore insider trading cannot be established based on this.ACDC analyzed settled markets on Polymarket, focusing on "low probability high stakes" behaviors, which are trades that cumulatively bet at least $2,500 within one hour, with corresponding outcome probabilities not exceeding 35%. The study identified 556 wallets with abnormal trading patterns, of which 152 were involved in military and defense markets. These wallets were referred to by researchers as "Orcas," characterized by their sudden appearance, betting on low probability events, and achieving abnormally high success rates before profiting and exiting.The research found that the success rate of low probability bets in military and defense markets was significantly higher than the overall level on Polymarket, and some abnormal trades quickly attracted large traders and automated trading bots to follow. For example, before a U.S. attack on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025, an abnormal bet on U.S. military action appeared, after which an automated trading bot subsequently bet $200,000, and another large trader bet $100,000. Researchers also found similar abnormal bets and follow-on trading behavior before the U.S.-Israeli attack on Tehran.David Szakonyi, co-founder of ACDC, stated that the abnormal trading activities on Polymarket are more public than many traders realize, and large traders and bots are already tracking and replicating suspected informed trades, so foreign intelligence agencies may also be monitoring these public on-chain trading activities. The issue of insider trading in prediction markets has recently received ongoing attention from regulatory agencies. In April, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) accused U.S. Army soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke of trading Polymarket contracts using confidential information regarding the capture of former Venezuelan President Maduro, allegedly profiting over $404,000. This case is not directly related to the 152 wallets identified. Additionally, in May, the CFTC also charged a Google software engineer with trading 23 Polymarket contracts using confidential information related to the company's 2025 "annual search" rankings, profiting approximately $1.2 million with near-perfect accuracy. Polymarket has previously stated that the company closely monitors suspicious trading and has reported dozens of wallets to the relevant authorities. As the scale of prediction markets continues to expand, insider trading, market manipulation, and national security risks are becoming important reasons for regulatory agencies to strengthen oversight.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the "NATO and Russia Military Conflict Prediction" event on the prediction market Polymarket, the "Yes" option in the sub-market "October 31" experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, dropping from 43% an hour ago to the current 23.5% (a fluctuation of 19.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to Jinshi reports, the Russian Ministry of Defense stated that the Russian military struck three ships carrying Ukrainian military cargo in the Black Sea.

According to Jinshi, senior officials at the U.S. Pentagon pitched the "Reconciliation 4" plan to Senate Republicans in a closed-door meeting, emphasizing the need for a significant increase in military funding to replenish weapon stockpiles depleted by the conflicts in Iran and Ukraine.Defense Secretary Hegseth and several deputy secretaries provided a detailed closed-door briefing to Republican members of key Senate committees, analyzing global threats and discussing the issue of U.S. military ammunition stockpiles.

According to Jinshi reports, North Korean military commentators pointed out that the US, Japan, and South Korea are strengthening their joint operational capabilities through military exercises, forming a "trinity" threat that could become a new security crisis in the Asia-Pacific region. The US and South Korea conducted exercises in July, carrying out large-scale "joint logistics support exercises." The US is also accelerating the reorganization of the US military command in Japan into a "joint military command" and deploying medium-range missile systems in Japan and South Korea. All parties should be vigilant and curb this trend.

According to Jinshi reports, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that the Russian Pacific Fleet launched a large-scale military exercise on August 4 in the Sea of Japan, the Sea of Okhotsk, and the northwest Pacific waters. The participating forces include approximately 60 surface ships, submarines, and support vessels, about 30 aircraft, helicopters, and unmanned systems, as well as over 13,000 soldiers.The purpose of this exercise is to test the fleet commanders' ability to command troop clusters and address unconventional combat tasks within their areas of responsibility.

According to Jinshi reports, several Iranian one-way attack drones attacked and hit a military base in northern Kuwait on Monday night.

According to Jinshi reports, on August 3 local time, the U.S. Central Command stated that the U.S. military continues to strictly enforce the maritime blockade against Iran. As of that day, the U.S. military has altered the navigation routes of 44 commercial vessels, rendered 2 vessels incapacitated, and boarded and inspected 2 vessels.

According to Jinshi reports, the Huludao Maritime Safety Administration issued a navigation warning. From 8:00 to 14:00 on August 4, military exercises will be conducted in certain waters of the Bohai Sea, and entry is prohibited.

According to Jinshi reports, former Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif warned that if Iran fails to reach a final agreement with the United States within the proposed 60-day negotiation period, it may face further economic difficulties, domestic turmoil, or a new round of military strikes.

According to Jinshi reports, the Israeli Parliament's Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee voted on August 3 to approve the government's application for an extension, prolonging the military emergency mobilization order for two months until September 30 of this year.According to the decision, the Israel Defense Forces are permitted to call up a maximum of 240,000 reservists. Since the outbreak of the new round of the Israel-Palestine conflict in 2023, such applications for extending the emergency mobilization period have been approved every few months.

According to Jinshi reports, Russia announced that it struck three ships transporting military cargo in the Black Sea.