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Bitcoin's pullback impacts treasury companies, TD Cowen lowers Nakamoto's target price by 58% but maintains a "buy" rating

Wall Street investment bank TD Cowen has lowered the target price for Bitcoin treasury company Nakamoto Inc. (NASDAQ: NAKA), reducing the split-adjusted target price from $40 to $17, a decrease of 58%, but still maintaining a "Buy" rating. TD Cowen analysts stated that this adjustment is mainly due to the pressure on Nakamoto's highly leveraged capital structure from the decline in Bitcoin prices.Although the new target price still implies about a 275% upside from the current stock price of $4.65, the company's stock is highly sensitive to fluctuations in Bitcoin prices. TD Cowen expects Bitcoin to rebound to $100,000 by the end of 2026, which is about 25% lower than the historical high of $126,000 set last October. At the same time, the firm anticipates that Nakamoto will suspend further Bitcoin purchases before 2027.Analysts pointed out that Nakamoto's core value still comes from its Bitcoin assets, with the company currently holding 4,467 BTC, valued at approximately $290 million, ranking 22nd among publicly listed companies in terms of Bitcoin holdings. However, the company's debt and preferred stock financing structure have also compressed the asset value available to common stockholders. Recently, Nakamoto has completed several financial adjustments, including repaying approximately $45 million in debt, extending the principal of $105 million to June 2027, reducing financing costs, and approving a $25 million stock buyback plan. Additionally, the company has closed its previously operated medical clinic business and will focus on Bitcoin media, asset management, and consulting services in the future. Data shows that NAKA's stock price has fallen over 71% this year, while Bitcoin has declined about 26% during the same period. Market attention is shifting from "continuously purchasing BTC" to the asset-liability structure and financing capabilities of Bitcoin treasury companies.

hot_img Changxin Technology went public today, with the highest single-sign profit exceeding 20,000 yuan

According to Jinshi News, Changxin Technology will officially land on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, with an issue price of 8.66 yuan per share. Based on an average increase of 278.01% for all new shares, the profit from a single subscription for Changxin Technology is approximately 12,000 yuan; based on an average increase of 466.67% for new shares on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, the profit from a single subscription for Changxin Technology is approximately 20,200 yuan. Institutions have pointed out that there has been a temporary rebound in the new share sector recently, and panic sentiment has somewhat eased. Reviewing the current changes in new share cycle indicators, the cycle pricing indicators and sentiment indicators have basically returned to a neutral or slightly below neutral position for the year, and the sharp release of high-level risks may come to an end. The new share sector may be expected to initiate a relatively balanced oscillation game between bulls and bears; however, it should be noted that a return to strength for the new share sector may require more time. On one hand, it needs to wait for the cycle indicators to continue to converge and stabilize, and on the other hand, it may need to wait for the gradual reconciliation of bullish and bearish divergences.

Liang Wenfeng is dissatisfied with the leak of the 4-hour internal speech, and DeepSeek announced the suspension of the second round of financing

According to Bloomberg, DeepSeek announced the suspension of its second round of financing and verbally notified some potential investors that it would not sign investment agreements as expected. This suspension partly stems from founder Liang Wenfeng's dissatisfaction with the leak of a 4-hour internal transcript during its first financing deal, where he made 52 statements in an investor meeting regarding DeepSeek's organizational culture, open-source logic, technology roadmap, and views on the competitive landscape of the industry. The nearly 4-hour meeting record recently went viral on social media, including statements such as "The biggest gap between China and the U.S. in AI is computing power resources." Both DeepSeek and Liang Wenfeng have not confirmed the authenticity of the leaked record.DeepSeek stated that it may still choose to resume the transaction process in the future and has begun preparations for an initial public offering, with the IPO potentially being filed as early as this year.DeepSeek completed its first round of external financing in June 2026, raising over 50 billion yuan, approximately 7.4 billion dollars, with a post-investment valuation of about 50-59 billion dollars. It adopted a special structure, with most funds entering a limited partnership managed by Liang Wenfeng, where investors have no voting rights and are locked in for 5 years. Liang Wenfeng himself contributed about 20 billion yuan as the largest contributor, with participation from Tencent, CATL, JD.com, NetEase, and the Chinese National AI Fund. DeepSeek subsequently initiated discussions for its second round of financing in mid-July, targeting a valuation of about 71 billion dollars.

hot_img Transcript of Liang Wenfeng's investor meeting leaked: Claims restraint is a strategy, with the goal of AGI rather than super apps

Last month, comments from Liang Wenfeng during the DeepSeek investor meeting have recently circulated. Liang Wenfeng clearly stated that DeepSeek's goal is AGI, rather than becoming the next super app. They will not engage in 3D, video generation, or world modeling, nor will they close source code, stating, "Restraint is a strategy used to increase the probability of achieving AGI." He believes that products are merely "by-products" on the path to AGI, with the current focus on Coding Agent and continuous learning capabilities. The next phase aims to achieve autonomous model iteration, with the endpoint pointing towards embodied intelligence.In terms of commercialization, Liang Wenfeng stated that they only seek to earn "reasonable profits" and do not set profit maximization as their pricing goal. DeepSeek is "still far from a complete shift to commercialization." He assesses that the gap between AI in China and the U.S. mainly lies in resources rather than talent, stating, "Using a fraction of the computing power can narrow the gap to 6 months, 3 months." Regarding industry competition, he believes that open source is "the sweet point for companies of this scale," while also predicting that domestic large models will ultimately converge to "two large companies and two small companies." Liang Wenfeng also mentioned that maintaining team stability is the only non-negotiable core principle, and the company is driven by vision, with "a group of ordinary people achieving extraordinary things."
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