reserve

According to the data panel on the ChainCatcher official website, regarding BTC wallet balances, in the past 7 days, Bybit had the largest increase among the top 10 exchanges, reaching 1.50%; Bitget had the largest decrease, dropping by 2.98%.In terms of exchange asset transparency proof, in the past 7 days, the top three net outflows were Bybit (-436 million USD), Binance (-156 million USD), and Bitget (-128 million USD); the top three net inflows were Deribit (+241 million USD), Bitfinex (+119 million USD), and MEXC (+102 million USD).

Jefferies global economist Mohit Kumar stated in a report that the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates this week and believes that Waller's comments are crucial. He said, "We expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, but Waller's comments on the future direction of policy will be key."Regarding further rate hikes, Jefferies believes that the actual actions of the Federal Reserve will be fewer than the 3.5 rate hikes anticipated by the forward market. Kumar said, "From a credibility standpoint, the first rate hike may be necessary, but subsequent hikes will depend on how long the war lasts and the trend of oil prices."

Stubborn high inflation has led Trump to confront Federal Reserve Chairman Waller this week, as the market prepares for the Fed to raise interest rates despite the president's demands.Economists warn that if the Fed does not support a rate hike on Wednesday, its "credibility" will be at risk. Trump reiterated that the U.S. should have the "lowest interest rates in the world" and may be dissatisfied with a rate increase.

According to Gate market data, influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike expectations, Asian currencies generally weakened against the US dollar in the morning session. The market expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points this week, with the probability rising to 88%.The US dollar rose 0.3% against the South Korean won and the Japanese yen, trading at 1,345.8 and 154.06, respectively; the Australian dollar fell 0.2% against the US dollar, trading at 0.7151.

Barclays economists stated that the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision makes this week's FOMC meeting the focus of the market. If the Federal Reserve unexpectedly keeps interest rates unchanged, or if the rate hike is lower than expected, it could lead to a short-term weakening of the dollar.

JPMorgan expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in September and December 2026, up from the previous forecast of a single rate hike in December.

According to CryptoSlate, the UK-listed company Satsuma Technology has sold its entire reserve of 669.4867 bitcoins, with the transaction completed between July 24 and 31, at a net transaction average price of £47,667 per bitcoin, resulting in total proceeds of approximately £31.91 million.The High Court of England has approved its capital reduction through the cancellation of Class B shares, and the company will return £30.718881 million to eligible shareholders, which amounts to £0.002734 per Class B share.

The Standard Reserve, self-proclaimed as the "On-Chain Central Bank," will launch on September 14 and announce the genesis minting arrangements. The whitelist minting window for Genesis Charters is from 5:30 PM to 8:30 PM Eastern Time (from 5:30 AM to 10:30 AM Beijing Time on September 15), with a liquidity fee of 0.15 ETH; after this period, the remaining Genesis Charters will enter a 30-minute descending Dutch auction mode, starting at a price of 1.25 ETH, with a minimum price of 0.15 ETH. 100% of the minting proceeds will go into initial liquidity and the protocol treasury, with no profit-sharing for the team.After the minting ends, the official will inject liquidity and open trading for the STANDARD token, with a temporary anti-sniping tax set for the first hour, starting at 90% and decaying exponentially, with most of it decaying in the first 5 minutes, and the tax fees going into the protocol; after 1 hour, regular trading fees will resume. At the same time trading opens, Charter emissions will be initiated, and 100 branch licenses will be auctioned (paid in STANDARD, via Dutch auction).

This week, global markets enter a central bank super week. The Federal Reserve's FOMC will announce its interest rate decision and economic projections summary at 2 AM Beijing time on Thursday, followed by a monetary policy press conference by Chairman Powell; the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan will also announce their decisions on Thursday and Friday, respectively. Meanwhile, the U.S. Senate will hold a key procedural vote on the CLARITY Act on Tuesday local time, and the SEC will hold a roundtable discussion on 24-hour trading on the same day.Tuesday: Key procedural vote on the Cryptocurrency Market Structure Act (i.e., CLARITY Act); U.S. ADP employment change for the week ending August 29; U.S. September New York Fed Manufacturing Index. Wednesday: U.S. API crude oil inventories for the week ending September 11; U.S. August retail sales month-on-month, U.S. August import price index month-on-month, U.S. September NAHB housing market index; U.S. July business inventories month-on-month, U.S. EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending September 11.Thursday: Federal Reserve FOMC announces interest rate decision (2 AM Beijing time on Thursday) and economic projections summary, Federal Reserve Chairman holds a monetary policy press conference; U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending September 12; Bank of England announces interest rate decision and meeting minutes; SEC holds a roundtable discussion on 24-hour trading. Friday: Bank of Japan announces interest rate decision, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda holds a monetary policy press conference.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring on-chain data, significant capital movements are predicted in the Polymarket market. A large whale invested $51,350 in a single bet on the "Federal Reserve's September decision" event, targeting "no change." Based on the current transaction price, the latest corresponding winning probability for this bet is 79%.

Arthur Hayes posted on the X platform that, aside from AI safety risks, if companies like Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX no longer act as buyers of computing power, the U.S. government may need to take on that role; another scenario is that if the demand for computing power disappears, leading to defaults on related AI debts, the Federal Reserve may need to "print money" to rescue the insurance institutions holding those debts. Hayes stated that regardless of which option is chosen, it will ultimately need to be resolved through monetary expansion, jokingly referring to this situation as "Yachtzee."

According to monitoring by Lookonchain, Binance's Bitcoin reserves have risen to 693,000 coins, reaching a two-year high, an increase of about 77,000 coins since the end of April, accounting for approximately 30% of the total Bitcoin reserves on major trading platforms.As the reserve continues to climb, Bitcoin faces strong supply pressure in the range of $83,000 to $85,000.

The central banks of the United States, Japan, and the United Kingdom will announce their monetary policy decisions this week, with the market focusing on whether the Federal Reserve will initiate its first interest rate hike in three years.Iran and Gulf countries are negotiating shipping management in the Strait of Hormuz to address high crude oil prices.

The cryptocurrency exchange platform Binance's Bitcoin reserves have exceeded 693,000 coins, an increase of about 77,000 coins since late April, accounting for approximately 30% of the total Bitcoin reserves of major exchanges.Bitcoin is currently positioned below the long-term holder supply zone between $83,000 and $85,000, with new accumulation support forming around $75,000. If this support is lost, the next level of concern will be $75,000. Binance had previously announced plans to invest $1 billion to allocate approximately 15,000 Bitcoins, and factors related to the SAFU fund and the Coldcard incident may also influence some holders' custody choices.

Goldman Sachs stated that the renewed rise in expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes may trigger traders to unwind their hedge positions, leading to a more severe adjustment in gold prices than usual.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring on-chain data, it predicts significant capital movements in the Polymarket market. A large whale invested $87,057.89 in a single transaction regarding the "Federal Reserve's September decision" event, targeting a "25 basis point increase." Based on the current transaction price, the latest corresponding winning probability for this subject is 80.61%.

Goldman Sachs economist Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo stated: "Today's CPI largely meets expectations, which on the surface is the result investors hoped for, but it indeed heightens the suspense for next week's interest rate decision. The challenge is that the data does not fully reflect the recent emergence of some inflationary pressures, and there is little evidence that inflation is returning to target in the short term. The survey period for this report predates the latest round of energy price increases and also predates the surge in commodities spreading from energy to metals and agriculture. Today's inflation data does not eliminate the possibility of stronger price pressures emerging in the future.In summary, today's data that meets expectations will allow the Federal Reserve to keep the option of raising interest rates, but it will not be forced to act, so the market may focus more on Waller's communications, energy prices, labor market data, and what happens next, rather than on what was released today."

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the event of "Federal Reserve September Decision" on the market Polymarket, the sub-market "No Change" option's probability of "Yes" has experienced drastic fluctuations, plummeting from 38.5% an hour ago to the current 18.5% (a fluctuation of 20%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.