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Binance Research: On-chain markets generally contracted in the first half of 2026, with DeFi TVL declining by 38%

The Binance research report shows that in the first half of 2026, the on-chain market contracted overall rather than experiencing capital rotation. The total locked value in DeFi across the entire chain decreased by $43.4 billion, a decline of 38%; the total market capitalization of the six major mainstream Layer 1 public chains covered in the report decreased by $246.5 billion, a decline of 42%. The Ethereum spot ETF holdings dropped from over 6 million ETH to 5.2 million, while the holdings of digital asset reserve companies increased from 6 million to 7.7 million, indicating a change in marginal holding structure.The report also pointed out that after the increase in Ethereum's Gas limit, the average Gas price decreased by 75% compared to 2025, and the number of transactions grew by about 50%, but the annual on-chain revenue is still expected to decline by 53%. User activity on Layer 2 general networks significantly weakened, with user operations dropping by about 77% from January to June 2026. The Solana network's REV fell from $40 million in January to $14 million in June.On the other hand, BNB Chain performed outstandingly in the field of tokenized stocks and tokenized real-world assets, with the market share of on-chain tokenized RWA increasing from 9.8% to 13.5% in the first half of the year. The report also mentioned that prediction markets, DEX, lending, and tokenized RWA remain among the few major directions that maintain activity.

Polymarket will upgrade the settlement rules for the cryptocurrency rise and fall market: abandoning the single price snapshot and switching to a time-weighted average price

According to official news, the prediction market Polymarket announced a significant adjustment to its settlement mechanism for cryptocurrency price fluctuation markets starting from August 7, to protect market integrity. From midnight UTC on that day, the affected markets will no longer settle based on a single price snapshot at a specific time but will instead use a time-weighted average price.Markets of different durations correspond to different TWAP windows: all cryptocurrency 5-minute markets will use a 30-second TWAP, 15-minute markets will use a 60-second TWAP, and 4-hour markets will also use a 60-second TWAP. The previous single snapshot settlement method was prone to price manipulation during periods of low liquidity, and this change is a proactive reinforcement of the market integrity system by Polymarket after facing regulatory scrutiny.To support this transition, Polymarket will inject $1 million in liquidity rewards into all affected markets throughout August. On the technical side, Chainlink TWAP testnet data streams are now available, and mainnet data streams along with Polymarket real-time data stream services will go live on August 4, at which point developers can access TWAP prices directly through Chainlink Data Streams or Polymarket's public WebSocket.
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