basis

JPMorgan expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in September and December 2026, up from the previous forecast of a single rate hike in December.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring on-chain data, it predicts significant capital movements in the Polymarket market. A large whale invested $87,057.89 in a single transaction regarding the "Federal Reserve's September decision" event, targeting a "25 basis point increase." Based on the current transaction price, the latest corresponding winning probability for this subject is 80.61%.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring on-chain data, it predicts significant capital movements in the Polymarket market. A large whale invested $56,235.86 in a single transaction regarding the "Federal Reserve's September decision" event, targeting a "25 basis point rate hike." Based on the current transaction price, the latest corresponding winning probability for this asset is 46%.

The European Central Bank is expected to implement its second interest rate hike since the energy prices surged due to the Iran war, as inflation remains persistently above target.Institutional surveys show that, except for one analyst, the rest expect the deposit rate to be raised by 25 basis points to 2.5% on Thursday. Policymakers are responding to last month's consumer price increase that surpassed 3%.

The re-staking protocol Renzo Protocol announced its name change to Renzo Finance and launched its first on-chain structured yield product Renzo Basis, which will go live on Hyperliquid, initially supporting BTC and HYPE. Lucas Kozinski, founder of Renzo Labs, stated that basis trading earns funding rate income by simultaneously holding a spot long and a perpetual contract short. Since the long and short positions hedge each other, asset price fluctuations do not affect the yield, and users earn the fees paid by perpetual traders every hour.Renzo stated that the product achieves automation through a triple protection mechanism, including hedge protection, yield protection, and safety buffer. Currently, the product does not use AI automation but instead conducts trading and strategy monitoring through Hyperliquid's proxy wallet (API wallet) with user authorization, without holding user funds. The relevant protection parameters can be customized by users. Renzo emphasized that its product differs from competitors such as Ethena and Bitwise's Superstate in that it is fully on-chain, self-custodied, and allows depositors to choose their own assets, trading venues, and risk parameters.Renzo Basis plans to support all assets on Hyperliquid that have both spot and perpetual markets and expand to other DeFi platforms, with the next stop being Lighter on Robinhood, where on-chain stock perpetual basis trading will be introduced.

"New Bond King" Gundlach stated that the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate should be raised by 50 basis points.

According to CoinDesk, as Bitcoin surged from about $62,000 to over $77,000 last week, liquidating approximately $3 billion in leveraged short positions, major crypto market makers such as Abraxas Capital, Fasanara Capital, and Wintermute quietly established short positions in perpetual contracts worth hundreds of millions of dollars on Hyperliquid.Lookonchain data shows that the three institutions collectively hold short positions of 138,569 ETH (approximately $338 million) and 3,425 BTC (approximately $265 million); meanwhile, Abraxas Capital withdrew 73,872 ETH (approximately $173 million) from Binance in the past four days.This strategy is known as cash arbitrage or basis trading: traders hold spot positions while shorting an equivalent amount of assets through perpetual contracts to hedge against price volatility risks, primarily earning the funding rates paid by longs to shorts. In previous months, funding rates were long suppressed or even turned negative, but this month's rebound has quickly turned funding rates positive, reopening the arbitrage window. Aegis data shows that the 30-day average funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual contracts on August 24 reached an annualized 6.7%, with a 7-day average of 8.7%; 21shares capital markets noted that basis trading for mainstream assets like Solana is also becoming lucrative.This trading has extended to regulated markets: Glassnode data shows that CME Bitcoin futures open interest has risen from about 87,000 BTC to 122,000 BTC.

The cryptocurrency protocol Ethena, which issued $4 billion in synthetic US dollars (USDe), announced plans to expand its basis trading strategy to stock perpetual contracts. According to Ethena's data, the open interest in stock perpetual contracts has grown tenfold to $6.2 billion since March. Over the past few months, the funding rates on Hyperliquid and Binance averaged approximately 14% and 17.5%, respectively, while the Bitcoin funding rate during the same period was only in the low single digits.Ethena pointed out that the average Bitcoin funding rate was 11% in 2024, 4.9% in 2025, and has dropped to 2.2% as of August 11 this year. In contrast, stock perpetual contracts had positive funding rates on 94% of trading days on Hyperliquid and 97% on Binance, with a median funding rate of 13.9%, while Bitcoin's was 3.9%. Co-founder Guy Young stated that stocks tend to rise in the long term, creating a continuous demand for leveraged longs to pay fees, and that the funding rate for stocks has almost no correlation with Bitcoin, providing USDe with a revenue source that relies less on the crypto market.The global stock market had a market capitalization of approximately $166.5 trillion in July, far exceeding the crypto market's approximately $2.2 trillion. This expansion is one of Ethena's initiatives to seek new revenue sources after the supply of USDe fell from a peak of about $15 billion to below $5 billion. Last week, it also announced a $1 billion financing arrangement with FalconX.

On August 25, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated that his over-the-counter brokerage has begun inquiring about the demand for dollar lending. Although current interest rates remain low, he believes this may indicate that basis trading is returning, and mentioned that Ethena-related token ENA may benefit from this.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring on-chain data, significant capital movements are predicted in the Polymarket market. A large whale invested $56,730.83 in a single transaction regarding the "Federal Reserve's September decision" event, targeting a "25 basis point rate hike." Based on the current transaction price, the latest corresponding win rate for this subject is 72%.

The yield on the 20-year U.S. Treasury bond fell by 10 basis points before the auction.

U.S. Democratic Senator Warren asked Treasury Secretary Basent to explain the basis for the Trump administration's intervention in the yen. In a letter dated August 13, Warren pointed out that the government has not provided detailed justification and has not disclosed how much money was used to purchase yen.Basent confirmed that the U.S. and Japan jointly intervened in the foreign exchange market for the first time since 1998 to support the yen, but did not specify the amount of funds.

PPP prediction market tool monitoring shows that before the non-farm data release, the probability of "Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in September" on Polymarket has risen to 48%, up 5% in 24 hours, and up 24% for the month; the probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged in September has fallen to 49%, down 21% for the month.The U.S. July non-farm payroll report will be released today at 20:30 Beijing time, with Wall Street institutions predicting a data range from 18,000 to 83,000, showing significant divergence. Market participants believe that if the final data significantly deviates from expectations, there could be severe fluctuations in the stock, bond, and dollar markets. The unemployment rate remains a core variable of concern for the Federal Reserve. Bank of America economist Aditya Bhave pointed out that if the data shows "everything is safe" in the labor market, the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates up to three times this year, but the federal funds futures market is currently only pricing in one rate hike for the year.

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until September is 45.6%, while the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 54.4%. By October, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 33.5%, the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 52.1%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 50 basis points is 14.5%.

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until September is 41.6%, while the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 58.4%. By October, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 30.5%, the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 53.9%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 50 basis points is 15.5%.

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted on X platform that BlackRock announced a 1-for-3 reverse split for ETHA, with the price rising from $14 to $42 in October.This move will reduce trading costs from 7 basis points to about 2 basis points. The ETF issuer believes that a 7 basis point spread is an issue and is adjusting it to about 2 basis points, while cryptocurrency exchanges charge about 140 basis points.

According to Jinshi reports, the market pricing no longer bets on the Bank of England raising interest rates by 25 basis points this year.

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged until September is 32.8%, while the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 67.2%. By October, the probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged is 23.3%, the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 57.3%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 50 basis points is 19.3%.

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until September is 26.4%, while the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 73.6%. By October, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 19.9%, the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 62.1%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 50 basis points is 17.9%.

Cryptocurrency analysis firm Glassnode stated that since February of this year, the 3-month Bitcoin futures basis yield has been below the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield. Historically, there has only been one similar prolonged period: from August 2022 to January 2023, which ultimately marked the cycle bottom.