basis

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost pointed out that short-term holders of Bitcoin (STH) have been in a profitable state on average for nearly two months, with an estimated cost basis of $76,500 and a current average profit margin of about 5.5%. Compared to less than a month ago when unrealized profits averaged as high as 20%, this level has significantly narrowed.The last time short-term holders had such high profits was shortly before the peak in October 2025, so the subsequent market consolidation is not surprising. Darkfost believes that short-term holder profits are still present, and the cost basis of $76,500 remains a noteworthy support level, with short-term holders likely to intervene here to defend the average entry price.

According to Jinshi citing CNBC analysis, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates at this meeting, but further deterioration of inflation may force it to tighten more in the coming months.TD Securities stated that if subsequent inflation data is significantly high, or if the labor market remains strong, the market may raise expectations for the Federal Reserve to implement a one-time rate hike of 50 basis points at future meetings.

Bitget, in collaboration with Reality and Keyring, has released a research report exploring the synergy mechanisms of tokenized stocks, perpetual contracts, and decentralized lending, and evaluating the potential returns and risks of related strategies through simulation calculations. The report points out that the application of tokenized stocks is extending from traditional stock trading to more scenarios such as collateralized lending, asset management, and systematic investment strategies.The research is based on Reality's rToken, combined with stock perpetual contract hedging and on-chain lending mechanisms, to explore stock basis yield strategies. Historical simulation data shows that from December 15, 2025, to October 19, 2026, the annualized net return of the strategy index is approximately 7% and 4% for in-sample and out-of-sample, respectively, with a gross funding cost rate premium of about 11% to 14%. The report also notes that financing costs, transaction execution fees, market liquidity, and risk management are key factors affecting the actual returns of the strategy.It is reported that Bitget and Keyring plan to jointly develop a stock basis index and build an on-chain lending market based on Reality's rToken. Among them, Reality provides exposure to tokenized stock assets, while Keyring is responsible for developing the index methodology and constructing the related lending market. The index aims to capture funding rate and basis yield opportunities by combining rToken holdings with corresponding stock perpetual contract hedging positions, providing new strategic pathways for the application of tokenized stocks in on-chain financial scenarios.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring on-chain data, significant capital movements are predicted in the Polymarket market. A large whale invested $104,636 in a single transaction regarding the "Federal Reserve's October decision" event, targeting a "25 basis point increase." Based on the current transaction price, the latest corresponding winning probability for this asset is 93%.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring on-chain data, significant capital movements are predicted in the Polymarket market. A large whale invested $56,167.83 in a single transaction regarding the "Federal Reserve's October decision" event, targeting a "25 basis point increase." Based on the current transaction price, the latest corresponding winning probability for this target is 93%.

Recently, there has been a viewpoint in the community that a 20% correction in the US stock market would trigger Bitcoin to plummet to $10,000. Crypto analyst Darkfost published an analysis indicating that if Bitcoin falls to $10,000, it would represent a decline of about 87% from the current price and a retracement of about 92% from its historical peak. Historically, Bitcoin has only experienced a maximum retracement of over 92% in 2011; the maximum retracements in 2015, 2019, 2022, and 2026 were 82.5%, 82.6%, 74.4%, and 54.2%, respectively.Darkfost further pointed out that during a correction of about 19.53% in the S&P 500 index, Bitcoin fell by about 80% in 2018. However, in April 2025, when the S&P 500 index also corrected by over 19%, Bitcoin only dropped by about 22%. Therefore, directly linking a 20% correction in the US stock market to Bitcoin falling to $10,000 lacks sufficient historical data support.

According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in October is 84.5%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 15.5%.

Barclays expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in December and January, whereas the previous forecast was for a rate hike in December of this year.

CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV_ published an analysis indicating that the realized market cap of new whales in Bitcoin is $78.61 billion, while old whales stand at $159.15 billion. New whales account for 33.06%, compared to about 18% earlier in 2026.Since September, the realized market cap of new whales has continued to grow, while old whales have remained relatively stable, with the growth primarily coming from new whales. The realized market cap is calculated based on the price at the last on-chain transfer of the tokens and does not represent the proportion of BTC supply.In terms of cost, the overall cost basis of new whales has decreased from a previous high of around $110,000 to about $68,000 at the end of August, before rebounding to around $77,000. The current BTC price is $82,134, which is approximately 6.7% higher than the cost basis of new whales.The analysis suggests that the data shows large holders buying during the downturn and continuing to accumulate as prices rebound. However, the turnover of the holder group and transfers between addresses can also inflate the realized market cap, so the growth in realized market cap cannot be interpreted as an equivalent influx of new funds. If BTC continues to fall below around $77,000, new whales will incur losses again, increasing the likelihood of selling during a rebound. The inflow to exchanges and realized losses can be used to determine whether this is short-term pressure or if large holders are starting to sell off again.

U.S. Treasury yields collectively declined, with long-term yields leading the drop. Market data shows that the yield on the U.S. 20-year Treasury bond is 5.434%, down 14.6 basis points for the day; the 30-year Treasury bond yield is 5.385%, down 14.1 basis points for the day; the 10-year Treasury bond yield is 5.054%, down 13.6 basis points for the day. The U.S. 7-year Treasury bond yield fell 13.5 basis points for the day, and the 5-year Treasury bond yield dropped 11.5 basis points.

Bai Xue, Deputy Director of Research at Dongfang Jincheng, stated that U.S. inflation rebounded significantly in September, with the CPI rising 3.7% year-on-year and the core CPI rising 2.6% year-on-year. The rebound in inflation has strengthened the necessity for the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates this year, with an increased probability of holding steady in October and raising rates by 25 basis points in December.

Driven by safe-haven demand, the yield on the U.S. 5-year Treasury bond fell by 10 basis points.

According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in October is 76.2%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 23.8%.

According to Polymarket data, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in October has dropped to 17%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate has risen to 84%. The trading volume for the related prediction event has reached 32 million dollars.

After the non-farm payroll data was released, the yield on the U.S. 30-year Treasury bond fell by 2.8 basis points to 5.575%. The 2-year yield dropped by 7.7 basis points to 4.71%. The 10-year yield ultimately decreased by 5.6 basis points to 5.18%.

Federal Reserve's Logan stated that the policy stance has been off track, and the Federal Open Market Committee should raise interest rates, targeting at least an increase of 50 basis points. Without higher rates, inflation cannot reach the Federal Reserve's 2% target.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring on-chain data, it predicts significant capital movements in the market Polymarket. A large whale invested $52,934.62 in a single transaction regarding the "Federal Reserve's October decision" event, targeting a "25 basis point increase." Based on the current transaction price, the latest corresponding winning probability for this subject is 34.92%.

Cryptocurrency analyst Axel Adler stated that the current trading price of Bitcoin is approximately $83,700, which is 14% higher than the cost basis of short-term holders (STH). Data shows that over the past week, the cost basis of short-term holders increased by 1.2%, rising from $72,800 on September 24 to $73,700. Despite the continuous rise in cost basis, short-term holders still maintain an unrealized profit of about 13.7%, down from 15.4% a week ago.Meanwhile, the cost basis of long-term holders (LTH) of Bitcoin decreased from $48,900 to $48,800 over the past week, a decline of about 0.3%, marking one of the faster weekly declines this year. The current Bitcoin price is approximately 72% higher than the cost basis of long-term holders, who still have significant unrealized profit potential. Axel Adler noted that changes in the cost basis of long-term holders are mainly influenced by the duration of holding, and some high-cost chips may have shifted into the short-term holder group, thereby increasing the cost basis of short-term holders. If the weekly change in the cost basis of long-term holders returns to zero, it may indicate that this metric is stabilizing.