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demand

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Flash

Serenity: The storage prices and supply-demand structure remain tight, and a short-term increase does not indicate that the bottleneck has been broken

Serenity posted a reminder that the fundamentals of storage shortages have not changed and may even become more acute. The market will shift from one bottleneck sector to another, but the companies themselves remain unchanged; what changes are the valuations and narratives. Serenity added several pieces of evidence suggesting that the storage supply-demand gap may be worse than the market expects: Nikkei reported that Japanese distributors claim the storage demand gap has reached 40% to 60%, and prices may rise by about 50% by the end of the year; SpaceX has not accounted for the approximately $1.3 trillion capital expenditure from ultra-large cloud providers, and total spending may exceed expectations; SanDisk's expected gross margin of 80% is expected to be maintained until 2030; and order visibility for companies like Samsung has extended to 2031.Serenity emphasized that storage stocks are highly volatile, with some of its positions showing unrealized gains of over 270%, making them easier to hold. However, the company's operational fundamentals and short-term stock prices often do not align. The same logic applies to other bottleneck areas such as optical modules, CW lasers, and substrates; after a rebound in stock prices, there is no need to assume that shortages have ended. Storage prices and supply-demand structures remain tight, and market sentiment and valuation narratives are rapidly rotating.

Cryptoquant Founder: The peak of this Bitcoin bull market cycle may be driven by global institutional and ETF demand

Cryptoquant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju stated that the peak of the current Bitcoin bull market cycle may be driven by institutional funds and ETF demand outside the United States. He pointed out that deeper stablecoin liquidity and tokenized asset infrastructure will expand global market participation. Using South Korea as an example, Ki Young Ju mentioned that the country currently does not have a spot Bitcoin ETF, retail investors cannot purchase overseas-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs, and most companies are unable to open trading accounts to buy BTC. South Korea has phased in corporate participation, with the Financial Services Commission (FSC) roadmap covering about 3,500 listed companies and qualified professional investors, but financial institutions and other companies are still excluded.Strategy's Bitcoin bank evaluated 25 major institutions covering trading, custody, digital asset products, financing, and corporate participation, with an overall adoption rate of 32%. RWA.xyz data shows that the global tokenized asset distributed asset value is $38.63 billion, an increase of 2.65% compared to 30 days ago. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) stated that stablecoins have the potential to enable faster, programmable payments, but current designs may pose risks to financial integrity, liquidity, and currency. Ki Young Ju pointed out that the cumulative net inflow before the launch of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF was about $57 billion over two years, and the next phase will be global institutionalization, with more institutions adopting BTC as a strategic asset, and countries lacking ETFs will also improve related investment channels.

first_img Analysis: The demand for AI infrastructure is longer than that of the internet, and general programming still drives ARR

Analysis of the AI semiconductor and infrastructure cycle indicates that the demand for AI infrastructure will continue to exceed that of the internet era, as user penetration and per capita token are multiplied and converted into tokens, significantly raising the ceiling. User penetration has surpassed 50%, with growth primarily coming from the still-early per capita token; the median monthly AI spending per employee in U.S. companies is about $12, which could long-term approach around 10% of white-collar salaries, approximately $1,000 per month, leaving nearly two orders of magnitude of space in between. Unlike the flat subscriptions and extremely low marginal hardware consumption of the internet, the high costs of inference make the marginal cost of a single access higher, requiring greater infrastructure intensity.After developers program, the next ARR growth will still mainly come from broad programming: non-programmers use programming infrastructure to complete non-programming tasks across industries, with programming becoming the default execution kernel for agents. Tasks related to broad programming account for about 60% to 70% of ARR. As of June 2026, Codex accounted for 64% of the total output tokens from Codex and ChatGPT among OpenAI's enterprise clients; since February, Codex has seen a much higher weekly growth in verticals such as law, sales recruitment, and marketing compared to engineering. In Anthropic's revenue, narrow development/software accounts for about 40%, while finance and insurance exceed 20%, with law, life sciences, retail, and others also having considerable shares.The demand-side token growth logic remains, with a high overlap between funders and beneficiaries.

first_img Apple M6 uses TSMC 2 nanometers, advanced packaging demand drives the Taiwan supply chain

Apple's first 2-nanometer M6 chip officially debuts, equipped with a 12-core CPU, 12-core GPU, and dual 16-core neural network engines, with unified memory bandwidth reaching up to 170GB per second, initially featured in the new Mac mini. This chip is manufactured by TSMC using a 2-nanometer process and is the first to adopt gate-all-around (GAA) nanosheet transistors, making it the world's first consumer-grade 2-nanometer chip.The supply chain is focused on the subsequent high-end M series packaging architecture. Based on the Fusion Architecture of the previous generation M5 Pro, M5 Max, and the four-die design of M5 Ultra, Apple chips have transitioned from a single large die to a modular design. Future M6 Pro, Max, or Ultra are expected to enhance advanced packaging requirements such as SoIC-MH and WMCM, increasing interconnect density with SoIC-MH and integrating logic, LPDDR memory, and high-speed I/O with WMCM.TSMC is actively preparing for expansion, with Zhunan AP6 as the main mass production base for SoIC, Longtan AP3 upgrading to WMCM, and Chiayi AP7 taking on related capacity. Analysts estimate that WMCM's monthly production capacity will reach about 60,000 units by the end of 2026 and over 120,000 units in 2027. Equipment manufacturers such as Hongshuo, Junhua, Yinneng, and material manufacturers Changxing, Xinying Materials, and Yongguang are expected to benefit.
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