counterpoint

Market research firm Counterpoint Research data shows that in the third quarter of 2026, major personal computer manufacturers experienced double-digit declines in sales, with HP down 31%, Dell down 25%, Lenovo down 23%, and Apple down 11%. The firm expects that personal computer shipments will decline by another 27% in the fourth quarter, with business demand being better than consumer demand, but not enough to offset the overall contraction.In terms of shipments, Lenovo shipped 15 million units, with a market share of 26.3%; HP shipped 10.3 million units; Dell shipped 7.6 million units; Apple shipped 5.6 million units, with a share of 9.8%, up from 8.7% in the same period last year, as the MacBook Neo alleviated the decline. ASUS saw a shipment decline of 7%.Counterpoint analyst Minsoo Kang stated that rising memory and component costs are pushing up system prices, causing consumers to delay upgrades. David Naranjo mentioned that the industry is undergoing structural adjustments, with component costs, system prices, and longer upgrade cycles reshaping the market. The report also stated that the increase in DRAM and NAND prices may slow down in the first half of 2027, and Micron indicated that the chip shortage may last until 2028.

Market research firms Counterpoint Research and TrendForce stated on the 18th that China's DRAM manufacturer Changxin Storage's monthly wafer production capacity is expected to expand from the current approximately 320,000 wafers to 420,000 wafers by 2027, adding about 100,000 wafers in just over a year, an increase of 31.3%.The industry expects that Changxin Storage's monthly DRAM wafer production capacity will reach 500,000 to 600,000 wafers by the end of 2028. If calculated at the upper limit of 600,000 wafers, this would be an increase of 280,000 wafers compared to the current level, an increase of approximately 87.5%.

Financial Associated Press reported on October 12, citing market research firm Counterpoint Research, that the ongoing construction of artificial intelligence infrastructure continues to squeeze the supply of storage chips, putting pressure on costs and supply in consumer electronics. Preliminary data shows that global smartphone shipments in the third quarter of 2026 are expected to decline by 20% year-on-year, reaching the lowest level for the same period since 2012. The storage chip crisis has impacted the smartphone market for the second consecutive quarter, with rising chip costs increasing the overall bill of materials, leading manufacturers to raise retail prices. Since 2026, global smartphone retail prices have cumulatively increased by about 20%.Samsung remains the global leader, with its market share rising to 23% in the third quarter, although shipments declined by 3% year-on-year, marking the largest share increase among major manufacturers. Apple's share rose to 22%, marking its first time surpassing 20% in the third quarter, but shipments declined year-on-year. The absence of the base model iPhone 18 this year resulted in a lower channel distribution scale in the first month of new product launches compared to the previous year's iPhone 17 series. The iPhone 18 Pro series performed better than its predecessor in China and India.Xiaomi's shipments in the third quarter declined by over 30% year-on-year, with its market share dropping to 10%. Both OPPO and vivo saw their shipments decline by over 20% year-on-year, with shares falling to 9% and 8%, respectively. Counterpoint senior analyst Shilpi Jain stated that consumers are holding onto their existing devices for longer and are considering more refurbished devices. Counterpoint indicated that global smartphone shipments are unlikely to see a significant recovery before improvements in storage chip costs and supply.

According to the latest data from Counterpoint Research, the Apple iPhone 17 is the best-selling smartphone globally in the second quarter of 2026, accounting for 6% of the total global smartphone shipments; the iPhone 17 Pro Max and iPhone 17 Pro rank second and third on the list. Apple and Samsung each occupy five positions in the global best-selling smartphone TOP10 list; the top ten models together account for 26% of the total global smartphone sales, an increase of 2% year-on-year. The base model iPhone 17 remains the best-selling smartphone this quarter, with significant upgrades narrowing the gap with the Pro models, supporting sales.Apple's stock price closed down 0.14% on Tuesday and fell 0.23% after hours, with a market capitalization currently reported at $4.52 trillion. For Samsung Electronics, two models from the Galaxy S series entered the top ten; the Galaxy S26 Ultra became Samsung's best-selling model this quarter, improving its ranking by 5 places compared to the previous generation, and it is also the best-selling Android model this quarter; this is the first time a super high-end Android device has led Android sales in the second quarter.

Counterpoint Research predicts that Samsung Electronics will regain its leading position in the smartphone market this year, indicating its stronger resilience against rising memory chip prices. Since the beginning of this year, the shortage of memory supply has become increasingly severe, and Counterpoint expects global smartphone shipments to decline by 14.3% by 2026. Samsung, with its highly integrated supply chain and mature distribution network, is an exception, with expected shipment growth of 0.8%, outperforming other manufacturers.Counterpoint states that the overall smartphone market is expected to decline again in 2027, followed by a recovery the next year. Similar to Samsung, Apple is expected to withstand the pressure from rising component prices, but the agency is more cautious about Apple's outlook. Apart from Samsung, only China's Huawei has established its own hardware supply system, which is expected to maintain significant growth.Counterpoint's chief analyst points out that the key to Samsung's return to the top lies in its internal component manufacturing capabilities, diverse product line, and solid relationships with carriers and retailers. It is expected that leading smartphone manufacturers in China will face greater shipment pressure, and the acceleration of industry consolidation during the economic downturn remains its fundamental forecast.

Market research firm Counterpoint released data indicating that in the second quarter of 2026, the NAND flash memory market by shipment volume saw Samsung, SK Hynix, and Yangtze Memory Technologies holding shares of 25%, 22%, and 14% respectively, marking the first time Yangtze Memory Technologies has entered the top three.However, based on revenue, Yangtze Memory Technologies ranks fifth in the industry, trailing behind Micron and Kioxia. The reason is that its product mix is concentrated on consumer applications, with a relatively low proportion of high-priced enterprise-grade solid-state drives for data centers.

According to Counterpoint Research analysis, if the proposed import ban on Chinese optical modules by the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) in the United States is implemented, it will primarily impact American cloud providers rather than Chinese suppliers. InnoLight leads the global data center optical module revenue with approximately 27% market share, while Coherent ranks second with about 17%. Chinese manufacturers collectively account for about two-thirds of the global unit supply and approximately 60% of the optical communication module revenue.The analysis points out that Western suppliers like Coherent and Lumentum lack sufficient cleanroom capacity, automated packaging infrastructure, and yield scale in the short term, making it impossible to fill the capacity gap left by Chinese manufacturers within 12-24 months. This could lead to delays in AI cluster deployments by several quarters and increase material costs for cloud providers. At the same time, Chinese module manufacturers rely on high-end 800G/1.6T module revenue from North American hyperscale customers for over 90%, but have achieved partial capacity relocation by establishing factories in Thailand.Counterpoint emphasizes that the optical module supply chain is a highly interdependent system. Chinese manufacturers heavily procure DSP chips from Broadcom and Marvell, as well as lasers and optical chips from Lumentum, Coherent, and Mitsubishi Electric. A forced separation would disrupt the entire ecosystem.

According to Counterpoint Research data, in the second quarter of 2026, the global DRAM market saw Samsung Electronics regain the top position with a 39% market share, significantly rebounding compared to the same period last year; SK Hynix's share fell from 39% in the same period last year to 26%, despite a 214% year-on-year revenue growth; Micron followed closely with a 25% share, only 1 percentage point behind SK Hynix. Counterpoint pointed out that Samsung achieved a rebound driven by the growth in general DRAM demand and the expansion of its share in the HBM sector.General DRAM prices rose significantly month-on-month, while the average price of HBM declined year-on-year due to the drop in HBM3E prices and delays in HBM4 shipments. Changxin Storage saw a 716% year-on-year revenue growth, benefiting from strong domestic general DRAM demand and capacity expansion; Nanya Technology grew by 690% year-on-year, benefiting from the expansion of DDR/LPDDR4/5 supply. Counterpoint predicts that with the shipments of NVIDIA Vera Rubin and AMD Instinct MI455X, HBM4 shipments will significantly increase in the second half of the year, and the improvement in product mix is expected to support a rebound in HBM prices.