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hot_img Reuters: The five major tech giants' AI investments are squeezing cash flow, and capital expenditures may exceed free cash flow by 2027

According to an analysis of LSEG consensus expectation data by Reuters, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Oracle are facing cash flow pressures from AI investments. On the current trajectory, by 2027, the combined capital expenditures of these companies are expected to exceed their generated free cash flow. Data shows that these companies' annual operating cash flow in 2027 will increase by approximately $340 billion compared to 2025, but capital expenditures are expected to increase by about $534 billion, meaning that for every additional $1 in cash flow, an extra investment of about $1.57 is required.Among them, Oracle faces the most significant pressure, with its capital expenditures as a percentage of operating cash flow rising from 47% in the 2022 fiscal year to 174% in the 2026 fiscal year (ending in May), with total capital expenditures reaching $55.7 billion, while operating cash flow is only $32 billion. The company's stock price has already dropped 36% this year. Amazon also saw its free cash flow drop to $1.2 billion in the first quarter. Analysts point out that if AI fails to significantly drive revenue growth, expand profits, and improve cash flow in the next two to three years, the market will begin to question whether the investment cycle has been excessive. Alphabet will be the first to announce its earnings report this Wednesday, and the market will closely monitor whether its cloud and AI revenues can keep pace with the growth in expenditures.

Analysis: Bitcoin rebounds but spot trading volume is rapidly shrinking, and the risk of long squeeze in derivatives is accumulating

Crypto analyst Murphy pointed out that during Bitcoin's rebound from $58,000 to nearly $64,000, the relative trading volume of spot transactions quickly declined. A rebound lacking support from spot demand is difficult to establish a basis for a trend reversal and often represents merely a sentiment-driven recovery, necessitating attention to the sustainability of the rebound.On the positive side, the USDC/USDT exchange rate fell from 1.001 to 1.0006, indicating that the intention to exit is weakening and trading intentions are recovering. Although mainstream stablecoins on trading platforms are still in a state of net outflow, the outflow magnitude continues to narrow, and the marginal improvement in funding pressure supports the continuation of the rebound. However, the weakening of spot driving forces means that the weight of derivatives is relatively increasing. The 7-day average of perpetual contract long premiums has continuously risen to $160,000/hour, indicating that Taker buying pressure is persistently pushing perpetual prices above spot prices; although open interest has decreased, it remains significantly higher than levels seen in February of this year. Currently, the long premium is still within a normal range, but as the rebound continues, the risk of long squeezes will continue to accumulate—once open interest rebounds again, intense long-short battles will lead to faster and more abrupt volatility, which is a hidden risk that needs to be monitored in advance.

The U.S. Senate is striving to advance the cryptocurrency bill in July, but agendas such as the housing bill may squeeze the time window

The U.S. Senate is trying to advance the cryptocurrency market structure bill, the "Clarity Act," in July, but the time window for the bill's passage is narrowing due to a backlog of priority agendas such as the defense authorization bill, the agriculture bill extension, and housing legislation. The Senate's schedule is tight in the coming weeks. In addition to the annual defense and agriculture bills, Trump stated on Wednesday that he would not support a major housing bill unless Congress first passes a bill requiring federal election voters to provide proof of citizenship. This housing bill also includes provisions to prohibit central bank digital currencies.As members of Congress will leave Washington before the August recess, if the relevant bills do not advance before then, the political focus will shift to the November elections when they return, further reducing the available floor time for cryptocurrency legislation. Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis indicated that a new version of the text is expected to be released around July 4 for final review by lawmakers, with a vote planned for July. A Senate aide also mentioned that the "Clarity Act" will become one of the bipartisan priorities when the Senate reconvenes in July. However, the bill still faces multiple uncertainties, including the level of Democratic support, controversies over Trump's related cryptocurrency conflicts of interest, the priority of other significant bills, and the Senate's limited scheduling.

ZachXBT: Indian scam gang suspected of social engineering to steal coins and self-reported to the police to trace and freeze funds

"On-chain detective" ZachXBT published a case analysis stating that in a cryptocurrency asset case involving an Indian scam gang, the relevant individuals reported the case to law enforcement after their assets were frozen, drawing attention. The incident began when a user sought help, claiming that approximately 5.73 BTC (about $475,000) was frozen on Changelly in March 2025.Subsequent on-chain analysis revealed that these funds could be traced back to multiple social engineering attacks and theft cases related to Bitcoin ATMs targeting U.S. users, with a total amount involved exceeding $1 million and several elderly victims. The investigation showed that the individual provided multiple changing explanations for the source of the funds, including "loan," "boss transfer," and "investment from 2014-2015," and there were significant contradictions in the evidence chain.More concerning is that this user had previously filed a police report in India in December 2025, attempting to recover the frozen funds (case number 3207-P/2025). Subsequent on-chain evidence collection and email data analysis indicated that they might be a "mule" for transferring funds, with some bank documents inconsistent with their identity information. ZachXBT noted that such cases demonstrate that social engineering attacks and cross-border fund transfers continue to occur and remind users to avoid interacting with funds from suspicious sources to prevent triggering compliance freezes or legal risks.
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