bearish

Bitcoin fell below $80,000 on Tuesday, down about 0.4% since midnight UTC, briefly dropping to around $79,700. Ethereum decreased by 0.5%, and the DeFi index dropped by 1.8%, making it the largest decline among the indices tracked by CoinDesk.Meanwhile, the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) rose by 3.1%, and Asian tech stocks strengthened, but the crypto market failed to follow the rebound. On the macro front, the Federal Reserve will begin a two-day meeting on interest rates on Tuesday and announce its rate decision on Wednesday. CME FedWatch data shows that the market expects about a 90% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged, and traders will be watching for any potential rate hikes later in the year.In the options market, the $72,000 put option expiring on December 25 was the most traded Bitcoin option in the past 24 hours, and the 25 Delta put/call skew for Bitcoin across all maturities is positive, indicating that there is still demand for downside protection in the market.

Cryptocurrency trader Ansem posted that he is currently bearish on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and large-cap stocks, but he does not believe that ordinary retail speculation will significantly cool down as a result. He expects significant two-way volatility in the market in the fourth quarter, and some on-chain assets are still expected to perform well.Ansem pointed out that this week's Federal Reserve interest rate decision and important earnings reports from several companies will bring significant event risks. AI popular stocks have formed lower highs after peaking and have lost their original trend. However, the current judgment is not bearish on the longer-term market trend; the market may still experience a round of correction before continuing to rise.

Renowned trader Killa reviewed the weekly trend of Bitcoin, pointing out that last week BTC rebounded 50% after falling from $87,000 to the $80,000 range. After the current weekly opening, the price surged on Monday but continued to face resistance, ultimately sweeping down to about $80,000, the low of the previous week.Currently, the market is mainly "hunting" for long positions, so there is a significant chance that it will start hunting for short positions next week. In the short term, it is crucial to closely monitor whether it sweeps the low of this week at $79,800 again; if it does, look for long opportunities.Killa provided a clear observation framework: if the price does not sweep the lows again, then focus should be on the $83,600 area. If it cannot break through this area, the market will continue to be in a surrender phase of range-bound fluctuations; if it can successfully reverse, then the market will break upwards. He expects that the weekly opening next week will push upwards, forcing late shorts who have recently chased the market to cover their positions. In the worst-case scenario for bulls, BTC could deviate downwards to the $76,000 to $78,000 range. The analyst also clearly stated that he does not believe an extreme situation of sweeping down to $74,000 will occur.

According to Coinglass data, as Bitcoin strengthens again, the current funding rates of mainstream CEX and DEX show a significant weakening of the bearish sentiment in the market.Funding rates are the rates set by cryptocurrency trading platforms to maintain the balance between contract prices and the prices of underlying assets, usually applicable to perpetual contracts. It is a mechanism for the exchange of funds between long and short traders, and trading platforms do not charge this fee. When the funding rate is 0.01%, it represents the benchmark rate; a rate greater than 0.01% indicates a generally bullish market, while a rate less than 0.005% indicates a generally bearish market.

Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua stated that since the bullish position at $86,000, the market has repeatedly tempted buyers during the pullback, yet he insists on resting, not trying to earn speculative money, and not seizing every opportunity. Missing out is always better than making a mistake. He still holds the previous view that a pullback is expected here but not to short. If Bitcoin falls below $82,000, it may touch three support levels at $79,000, $75,000, and $71,000.There is also a possibility that Bitcoin ends the pullback with fluctuations instead. Regardless, Liquid Capital does not operate, neither going long nor short.

ITC Crypto founder Benjamin Cowen published a post questioning the bearish outlook for Bitcoin in Q4, stating that from a technical perspective, the current market trend is favorable for bulls. Currently, the price of BTC is less than 1% away from the May peak, making it difficult to draw conclusions about the future market before entering the fourth quarter.

According to Cointelegraph, renowned gold bull and economist Peter Schiff stated that the announcement from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission regarding tokenized stocks could be bearish for Bitcoin. He believes that tokenized securities can offer similar convenience to Bitcoin while having a more reliable underlying asset value, which may weaken Bitcoin's appeal.

According to a report by CryptoQuant, cryptocurrency trading volume made a strong comeback in August. After falling to multi-year lows during the bear market, both spot and perpetual contract trading volumes surged significantly on August 21 with the price rebound. The daily spot trading volume reached approximately $75 billion, the highest since February, with Binance leading at $19.4 billion, Coinbase at $8 billion, and Gate at $5.1 billion. The daily perpetual contract trading volume reached about $336 billion, the highest since March, with Binance leading at $124 billion, OKX at $46 billion, and MEXC at $30 billion.The report noted that this increase in volume was due to buying rather than selling—previous spikes in trading volume this year were accompanied by sell-offs, while this time coincided with Bitcoin rising 24%, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards bullishness. The 30-day trading volume growth rate was the fastest since 2026, with Gate's spot volume increasing by 667% and Coinbase by 429%; in terms of perpetual contracts, Binance grew by 202% and Bybit by 184%. The report suggests that the rebound in trading volume may signal the end of the bear market downtrend.

Rekt Capital posted on platform X that the stage lows of Bitcoin in February and June 2026 are in roughly the same price range, and the RSI is also at nearly the same oversold level. After both bottoms, Bitcoin rebounded to around $80,000.Compared to the peak in May 2026, when Bitcoin rises again to around $80,000, the overbought level of the RSI is significantly higher, but the price has formed lower highs. The RSI forming higher highs while the price forms lower highs indicates a hidden bearish divergence at the important resistance level of around $80,000 on the daily chart of Bitcoin. As long as the price of Bitcoin fails to break through and form a new higher high, this hidden bearish divergence will continue to exist.

Liquid Capital (formerly LD Capital) founder Yi Lihua stated that since May, after judging that the rebound had ended, he has mainly focused on one thing over the past two months: that July to August may be the last opportunity to bottom out in this round of BTC. With Bitcoin's daily level strongly breaking through the 120-day moving average and the 200-day moving average, while also breaking through the 20-week moving average at the weekly level, the BTC bear market trend has officially ended.He mentioned that the market is still bullish in the next two weeks, but after rising to a certain position, a pullback may still occur. The subsequent pullback will not exceed 50% of the upward movement. If investors use leverage, it is recommended to reduce long positions and refer to the weekly trends and pullback amplitudes during the 2023 upward cycle. This round of Bitcoin has dropped from a high of $126,000 to $57,000, with a maximum drop of about 56%. He believes that this drop has formed a cyclical low point, and it will be difficult for the market to see BTC prices starting with $50,000 again.

According to South Korean media outlet Chosun Ilbo, Morgan Stanley was not selected as the sole lead underwriter for SK Hynix's American Depositary Receipts (ADR) listing. The transaction size is approximately $26.5 billion (about 40 trillion Korean won), making it the largest IPO for foreign capital in the U.S. The commission, calculated at a 0.5% underwriting fee rate, is about $130 million. The final underwriting syndicate consists of Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan Chase. Industry insiders generally believe that Morgan Stanley's exclusion is related to its repeated issuance of bearish reports on South Korean semiconductors.The report's author is Korean-American Managing Director Shawn Kim, who has repeatedly downgraded the stock ratings of memory stocks such as Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron in research reports published in 2017, 2021, 2024, and on June 6 of this year, with the 2021 report titled "Memory, Winter is Coming." Additionally, Morgan Stanley has recently faced setbacks in South Korea: as a co-underwriter for the SpaceX IPO, Korea's Mirae Asset applied for $1.14 billion in subscriptions but received zero allocation; the sale of IGIS Asset Management, promoted in conjunction with Goldman Sachs, also ended in failure. Morgan Stanley's largest shareholder is Japan's Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG), which holds approximately 24% of the shares.

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, a bearish whale has deposited 31.12 million USDC into Hyperliquid over the past 3 days and currently holds a short position of 64.9 million dollars. The latest deposit was 5.12 million USDC.The current positions include 43.93 million dollars in SKHX shorts, 17.07 million dollars in BRENTOIL shorts, as well as short positions in SMSN, HIMS, and NVDA, with the wallet being 100% short.

Wintermute released a market analysis stating that under multiple geopolitical shocks such as the U.S. airstrikes on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Bitcoin has still maintained the critical support level of $62,000, showing strong resilience in the market.Last week, as U.S.-Iran negotiations were paused due to related issues, Iran attacked commercial vessels, and the U.S. launched a new round of airstrikes. Tehran announced the indefinite closure of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a significant rise in international oil prices, with Brent crude oil seeing a weekly increase of 6.3%, and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries rising to 4.57%. The market has readjusted the probability of a Fed rate hike in September to about 61%, and the U.S. CPI data to be released this week will be a key indicator affecting expectations for the July FOMC meeting.In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin has maintained a stable trend despite facing consecutive geopolitical risk events, holding the $62,000 area after a minimum pullback and gradually rising to around $64,000. Ethereum performed even stronger, with prices nearing $1,805.Meanwhile, the eight-week trend of ETF fund outflows has finally ended, with Bitcoin and Ethereum-related products recording a total inflow of about $282 million last week. Although the weekly inflow is still insufficient to confirm a trend reversal, combined with the recent continuous accumulation by whales and the market's weakened reaction to negative news, marginal selling pressure is easing, and the market may be forming a phase bottom.Additionally, the market's reaction to Strategy selling Bitcoin has been muted, contrasting sharply with two months ago when the sale of just 32 BTC triggered a sell-off, indicating that investor concerns about potential selling pressure have significantly decreased.Currently, Bitcoin has shown a "not falling on bad news" bottoming characteristic, but the market still needs to wait for further confirmation. Key factors going forward include the performance of U.S. CPI, whether ETF funds can continue to flow in, and the developments in the Strait of Hormuz situation. If inflation data cools, fund flows continue to improve, and progress is made on the CLARITY Act, Bitcoin is expected to challenge the key resistance level of $67,250; conversely, if oil prices continue to rise and macro pressures intensify, the $60,000 support may face another test.

Strive's Vice President of Bitcoin Strategy Joe Burnett stated that there are currently three types of investment views on Bitcoin in the market: first, the bulls, who believe that Bitcoin's long-term annualized return rate is higher than the cost of financing, and therefore are willing to borrow long-term capital to increase their Bitcoin holdings; second, the neutral investors, who view Bitcoin as a "Digital Credit" asset, only needing to believe that Bitcoin will not disappear and can generally follow the growth of USD inflation over the long term to meet their return needs.For example, according to Michael Saylor, if Bitcoin grows at an average annual rate of 3.3%, it can sustainably rely on capital gains to pay current dividends; third, the bears, who can express their views by shorting Bitcoin or leveraging Bitcoin products. Burnett believes that as bulls, neutrals, and bears all have corresponding Bitcoin investment tools, more capital is expected to enter the Bitcoin market.

Pioneer of crypto punk Adam Back stated that the market's negative view on Strategy and its preferred stock STRC lacks basis, as what Strategy is essentially doing is selling Bitcoin to pay dividends, without changing its Bitcoin reserve strategy, and is precisely "proving that it is possible to pay returns to investors through Bitcoin while reducing debt ratios."Adam Back further pointed out that Strategy is demonstrating a new financial model to the market, where Bitcoin may become an alternative asset to cash for corporate asset management and capital operations in the future, while the FUD sentiment surrounding MSTR and STRC is exaggerated. Strategy will not "go to zero," and its long-term value lies in continuously holding Bitcoin and promoting the market's understanding of Bitcoin's monetary properties.

CryptoQuant analyst Crazzyblockk stated that the data shows that Binance's Bitcoin perpetual contract funding rate is about 370 basis points lower than the median of three exchanges, sitting at approximately 2.8%, which is a low range since 2021, indicating that the bearish pricing in the Binance market is significantly strong.

Bitcoin has fallen below $65,000, approaching a key short-term support level ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision announcement. The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 2 AM Beijing time on June 18, which is the main catalyst for volatility this week. This FOMC meeting is also the first meeting since Kevin Warsh took office as the new Federal Reserve Chairman, so the post-meeting press conference and interest rate results are equally under scrutiny.Trader Killa stated that the FOMC may set the tone for market trends for the remainder of June. He pointed out that BTC is currently forming a bullish narrative around this event, but the outcome is usually priced in by the market before the press conference. Killa noted that if recent history is any guide, FOMC days typically bring more bearish reactions than bullish ones. Killa warned that BTC needs to maintain a bullish market structure from its current position of around $64,000; otherwise, after this turning point, it is highly likely to retest the $60,000 low.Another trader, Niels, mentioned that the FOMC meeting coincides with the nearing conclusion of the US-Iran peace agreement, and BTC may show some strength in the short term, but it could ultimately fall towards $55,000. However, analyst Cryptic Trades offered a more optimistic view, believing that BTC may continue to rebound after the FOMC. He stated that BTC has encountered resistance near a daily bullish support zone formed by two key moving averages, but after this round of correction, the next significant rise is imminent.