expectation

The U.S. September PCE data and the preliminary GDP for the third quarter will be released tonight at 20:30. The stickiness of inflation and the slowdown in economic growth will be key factors for the market to assess the outlook for Federal Reserve policy. If the data significantly deviates from expectations, it may trigger fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields, the dollar, and U.S. stocks.

The British pound faced selling pressure against the US dollar during the Asian session, dropping to around 1.33. The US dollar strengthened due to expectations of another interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve this year, with CME tools indicating an approximately 80% probability of a rate hike in December. Geopolitical uncertainty supports the US dollar, while the downside potential for the British pound is limited by expectations regarding the Bank of England's policy.

Samsung Electronics announced its official financial report for the third quarter of 2026. The company's revenue for the quarter reached 195.3 trillion Korean won, slightly higher than the previously announced preliminary data, with an operating profit of 107.4 trillion Korean won for the third quarter. The net profit for the quarter was 75.2 trillion Korean won, falling short of market expectations of 83.6 trillion Korean won. Following the release of the financial report, Samsung Electronics' stock price briefly fell, then slightly rebounded, currently up 0.2%.The semiconductor business remains the main source of performance. The operating profit of the chip division for the third quarter was 106.5 trillion Korean won, with significant growth in the foundry business revenue. The company expects double-digit growth in this business's revenue in the fourth quarter. The display business recorded an operating profit of 1.1 trillion Korean won, while the mobile division reported an operating loss of 600 billion Korean won in the third quarter.Samsung Electronics announced that it will distribute a dividend of 4,601 Korean won per share for the third quarter, with a total dividend payout of 30 trillion Korean won. Management expects demand for memory chips to continue to expand in the fourth quarter and stated that the chip supply shortage situation will further worsen next year.

Microsoft expects its Azure cloud business revenue to grow by 49% to 50% in the second fiscal quarter, with total revenue reaching between 96 billion and 97.1 billion dollars.Revenue from the Intelligent Cloud and Infrastructure segment is expected to be between 80.1 billion and 80.7 billion dollars, while revenue from the Devices and Consumer segment is projected to be between 15.9 billion and 16.4 billion dollars. Microsoft also anticipates that capital expenditures in the second fiscal quarter will exceed 50 billion dollars.

Microsoft announced that its quarterly cloud business revenue exceeded expectations, with Azure cloud computing revenue growing by 48% to reach $33.17 billion, surpassing the market expectation of $32.84 billion. The company's free cash flow was $18.6 billion, far exceeding the market expectation of $8.54 billion. Microsoft’s stock rose nearly 6% in after-hours trading.

In Q3 2026, Alphabet's Google Cloud business revenue was $30.71 billion, while the market expectation was $29.566 billion.

Federal Reserve Chairman Waller stated that against the backdrop of global turmoil, inflation expectations have developed in the right direction.

The market maintains a pricing of a 90% probability for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in December.

According to Jinshi citing CNBC analysis, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates at this meeting, but further deterioration of inflation may force it to tighten more in the coming months.TD Securities stated that if subsequent inflation data is significantly high, or if the labor market remains strong, the market may raise expectations for the Federal Reserve to implement a one-time rate hike of 50 basis points at future meetings.

According to Gate market data, NXP Semiconductors (NXPI.O) fell nearly 7% in pre-market trading after the company projected that fourth-quarter sales would be below market expectations.

Amazon will announce its earnings report after the U.S. stock market closes on Thursday. Whether AWS's growth rate can return to above 40%, along with the $22 billion capital expenditure and advertising monetization efficiency, will be the focus of the earnings report. The forecast for Q3 of fiscal year 2026 is a single-quarter revenue of $20.244 billion, expected to grow by 12.25% year-on-year; the net profit forecast is $21.363 billion, expected to grow by 0.83% year-on-year.Bank of America expects AWS revenue to grow by 40% year-on-year, higher than the market's general expectation of 38%; HSBC expects its operating profit to reach $27 billion, with sales slightly above the upper guidance limit. JPMorgan believes that the expansion of AWS profit margins and improvements in retail business efficiency will continue to drive profit growth, while Morgan Stanley emphasizes the retail business's layout in the smart agent commerce field and the market position of the Bedrock AI platform.

The trading platform Robinhood announced its third-quarter financial report, with revenue of $1.42 billion, slightly below Wall Street's expectation of about $1.43 billion; earnings per share were $0.51, lower than the expected $0.55 and also down from $0.61 in the same period last year. Net profit was $476 million, a year-on-year decrease of 14% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 17%. This quarter included an unrealized loss of $67 million from Robinhood Ventures Fund I, equivalent to $0.07 per share; adjusted earnings per share were $0.60, a year-on-year decrease of 3%. After the financial report was released, the stock price fell in after-hours trading, closing at about $94.61 on Tuesday, a cumulative decline of about 18% for the year.By business segment, event contract revenue increased from $156 million in the second quarter to $173 million, with customer trading volume reaching a record 16.4 billion contracts, more than seven times that of the same period last year. Cryptocurrency trading revenue rebounded from $100 million in the second quarter to $120 million, but was down 55% from $268 million in the third quarter of 2025; this quarter's cryptocurrency trading volume was $50 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 38%, with $21 billion from in-app and $29 billion from its acquired exchange Bitstamp.Robinhood narrowed its guidance for adjusted operating expenses and equity incentive costs for 2026 to $2.675 billion to $2.75 billion, lowering the previous upper limit of $2.775 billion. A few hours before the financial report was released, the company announced a partnership with Ripple to introduce the stablecoin RLUSD to Robinhood Chain and Bitstamp, with plans to launch it in-app later this year; RLUSD has a market capitalization of over $2.5 billion, and Ripple will also provide fund management software and lending services for Bitstamp traders. Robinhood Chain went live as a Layer 2 network on July 1, generating about $3.13 million in fees within 30 days as of the end of August, surpassing Ethereum and Base.

HSBC Holdings (HSBC.N) fell 6.6% in pre-market trading due to third-quarter net profit not meeting market expectations.

According to the official announcement, the Gate event market has officially launched a macro market special page, focusing on core topics such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, inflation, employment, economic growth, U.S. Treasury yields, and economic recession, displaying event probabilities, trading volumes, and market expectations through a visual dashboard. Users can experience related features by updating the Gate App to version v8.41 or above.In the special page, the Federal Reserve interest rate decision module provides a countdown to future interest rate events and displays the probability distribution of options such as rate hikes, rate cuts, and maintaining the current rate; core CPI, core PCE, non-farm employment, and unemployment rates are presented through indicator cards showing the latest forecast results. The GDP module displays the probabilities of different growth ranges, the U.S. Treasury module covers yields for 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year bonds, and the recession module presents market probabilities through a dashboard. The page supports dynamic updates of related event probabilities, and users can also enter event details to view key events and related news.As a centralized trading platform that is the first to layout the event market, Gate's upgrade further integrates macroeconomic information, enhancing the market expectation observation experience. In the future, the platform will continue to enrich the coverage of events, deepen the connection between market data, information, and event trading, and improve the one-stop event market service system.

Meta announced its third-quarter 2026 performance early this morning Beijing time, with revenue of $64.601 billion, a year-on-year increase of 26%, exceeding market consensus expectations (approximately $63.3 to $63.7 billion). Net profit was $9.860 billion, a year-on-year increase of 264%, with a GAAP diluted earnings per share of $3.83.Operating profit decreased by 37% year-on-year to $12.988 billion, and the operating profit margin fell to about 20% (compared to about 40% in the same period last year), mainly due to a legal expense of $9.89 billion. This expense is related to the agreement reached with the attorneys general of various states in the U.S. regarding lawsuits related to youth mental health and social media, with a total payment cap of approximately $18.59 billion. Excluding this expense, operating profit was $22.88 billion, corresponding to an adjusted diluted earnings per share of approximately $7.40.The significant year-on-year growth in net profit was also influenced by the low base effect of the previous year's effective tax rate, which was as high as 87%; the effective tax rate for this quarter was 24%. Ad impressions increased by 10% year-on-year, and the average ad price rose by 14%. Family daily active people were approximately 3.64 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3%. Family of Apps revenue was approximately $64.16 billion, of which ad revenue was about $63.06 billion; Reality Labs revenue was approximately $443 million, with an operating loss of about $4.13 billion.Capital expenditures for the third quarter (including principal payments on finance leases) were approximately $34.9 billion, with free cash flow of negative $2.12 billion, and cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities at the end of the quarter were approximately $82.4 billion. The company expects fourth-quarter revenue to be between $73 billion and $76 billion. The full-year capital expenditure guidance has been narrowed to $135 billion to $145 billion, and the full-year expense guidance has been raised to $175 billion to $179 billion, mainly due to the inclusion of legal expenses; excluding this expense, full-year operating profit is still expected to be higher than in 2025. The company also expects Reality Labs operating losses in 2026 to be approximately $18 to $19 billion, with hopes of narrowing next year.According to Gate market data, possibly influenced by the earnings report information, META's stock price rose by 2.17% in after-hours trading.

SpaceX's net profit for the third quarter reached 4.4 billion USD, far exceeding market expectations of 1.88 billion USD, with revenue growing by 161% year-on-year. Although the stock price rose by 12.4% at one point, concerns in the market about the company's future debt expansion intensified. The bond spread for SpaceX maturing in 2046 widened to 264 basis points, and the price of five-year credit default swaps rose to 232.6 basis points.Chief Financial Officer Brett Johnson stated that the company will continue to invest in the superintelligence department's computing power and Starlink business, and is negotiating financing with multiple sources of debt capital.

According to official social media news, Huobi HTX will hold a live broadcast today at 20:00 titled "BTC 80,000 Defense Battle: Are Bulls Bottom Fishing or Bears Harvesting?" At that time, crypto KOLs such as Zhengrong Shuo, Damo Ge, Crypto.0824, and Ray Lazy Sheep will discuss the long and short game around BTC at the $80,000 mark, analyzing the support strength of key price levels, potential rebound signals, and downside risks in conjunction with the macro environment, capital flow, and market sentiment. They will also share insights on position management and risk response strategies from the perspective of ordinary investors amidst market fluctuations.

According to Gate market data, Super Micro Computer (SMCI.O) rose 16% in pre-market trading, after the company projected first-quarter revenue to exceed expectations.