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QCP Capital: BTC Enters Non-Farm Payroll Data Window

QCP Capital's market weekly report shows that after Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh's speech in Jackson Hole, the probability of a rate hike in September rose from 35% to 70%. BTC fell approximately 2.5% in a single day, and after nine consecutive days of net inflow, the ETF recorded a net outflow of $202 million. However, the dollar failed to maintain a hawkish pricing, with the DXY falling below 99.5, and gold, silver, and BTC all regained their losses.On the Treasury side, on September 9, the first long-end liquidity support operation will be launched, with the purchase limit raised to at least $4 billion (previously $2 billion). The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond auction on August 30 was reported at 5.216%, the highest since 2001, and the market will closely monitor whether this operation can effectively improve long-end liquidity.In terms of inflation, July PCE was reported at 3.7% (core 3.3%), CPI at 3.4% (core 2.5%), and Brent crude oil rose about 10% in a week due to attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and a force majeure event in Qatar LNG, with inflationary pressures continuing. Waller stated that if the data continues to trend as it has over the next two weeks, it would support a pause in rate hikes. Coupled with the ADP employment data showing only 38,000 jobs added (the weakest since January), the probability of a rate hike in September has fallen to 45-50%.

Non-farm payrolls will be announced tonight, and the market expects an increase of only 56,000 people in August

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the August non-farm payroll report tonight, with the market expecting an increase of only 56,000 jobs and an unemployment rate remaining at 4.1%. The market generally believes that the U.S. job market is currently in a "stable but weak" state, and a weakening employment data may not directly prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, with policy focus still on inflation trends.J.P. Morgan's trading desk predicts that if job additions exceed 95,000, the S&P 500 index may drop by 0.5% to 1.25%; if job additions are only between 5,000 and 35,000, the S&P 500 index may rise by 0.25% to 0.75%. The market expects that this non-farm data will become an important variable affecting the Federal Reserve's September policy expectations and the short-term trend of U.S. stocks.Recent statements from Federal Reserve officials indicate that the job market is currently not the focus of policy. Federal Reserve Governor Barr stated earlier this week that the employment situation is "stable," while Governor Waller said on Thursday that the employment condition is "satisfactory." This assessment does not imply that the job market is performing strongly, but it suggests that in the absence of further easing in inflation, the Federal Reserve may consider raising interest rates while trying to avoid impacting employment.

Bank of America stated that non-farm payrolls may not be the deciding factor for the interest rate hike in September, but still assesses a rate increase

As the bond market experiences significant fluctuations recently, investors are awaiting two sets of key U.S. data that may influence the Federal Reserve's decision: the non-farm payroll report for August to be released this Friday, and the August CPI data to be published on September 11.However, according to Bank of America, these two pieces of data carry different weights in the Federal Reserve's meeting on September 15-16. The bank believes that the non-farm payroll report is more like an "appetizer," while the "main course" that will truly determine whether the Federal Reserve raises interest rates is the CPI.Bank of America analysts stated on Wednesday: "The non-farm payroll is unlikely to be the decisive factor for a rate hike in September. A significantly weak report may reduce the likelihood of a rate hike, but the CPI remains the key data in determining whether the Federal Reserve will follow through with a rate increase. We maintain our judgment for a rate hike in September." Unless there is a significant downside surprise in the non-farm data released on Friday, the employment report is unlikely to become the final deciding factor in the discussions at the September FOMC meeting. The bank particularly emphasized that inflation remains the primary concern for the current Federal Reserve.

first_img Farmmi tokenized stock is actually a Memecoin, with the total supply minted by a single wallet

On Wednesday, the stock price of Nasdaq-listed company Farmmi surged from Tuesday's closing price of $0.1187 to a high of $0.5, with an intraday increase of about 321%. The trigger was a Memecoin named after the mushroom varieties in the company's annual report (Money Mushroom, code JINQIAN) starting to trade against its so-called "tokenized stock" FAMI on the Robinhood Chain.However, on-chain data shows that FAMI is not an official stock token from Robinhood: its total supply of 37,430,000 tokens (close to the total number of Farmmi's circulating shares) was generated in a one-time minting during the creation of the trade, with the deploying wallet retaining 38% and deploying a contract named PoolRepricer to manage the price itself, with no further changes to the supply thereafter. This token has no issuer, no redemption mechanism, and is completely unrelated to real Farmmi stock. In contrast, the official stock tokens from Robinhood are issued by Robinhood Assets (Jersey) Limited, and only authorized participants can subscribe and redeem.In terms of market performance, FAMI reached a high of $1.83 in the USDG pool, and as of 2:28 p.m., it was priced at $0.2135, a 45% premium over the stock price, with a total trading volume in the related pool reaching $131.4 million; the trading volume of JINQIAN against the FAMI pool was about $92 million, and at least 10 more Memecoins were launched within the following 30 minutes.
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