glassnode

Glassnode indicates that Bitcoin is currently under supply pressure from long-term holders around the range of $83,000 to $85,000. However, investors are still accumulating Bitcoin in this area.If the price breaks below this newly formed concentration zone, $75,000 will become a key observation level; further declines could potentially pull back to around $60,000.

On-chain analysis platform Glassnode released a report stating that Bitcoin has risen 23% over the past 21 trading days, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 remained flat during the same period, but are still down 10% year-to-date. The cost basis of long-term holders, the futures liquidation map, and the breakeven point for the U.S. spot ETF all indicate upper resistance between $83,000 and $86,000, with the highest spot price approximately 1.5% below the bottom of that range, followed by a narrow consolidation below $80,000.Approximately 1.07 million Bitcoins were purchased by long-term holders in the $83,000 to $86,000 range, with the heaviest positions close to $85,000, and this block has remained nearly unchanged for the past 30 days. The selling pressure at the high point of the range is calculated at 7 basis points per day based on the selling risk ratio, which is less than half of August's peak of 16 basis points, and the profit realization ratio for long-term holders has dropped from 88% in August to 47%. The breakeven point for the U.S. spot ETF since its launch has been around $86,000, with the paper loss narrowing to approximately $3.9 billion.U.S. core inflation has fallen to a two-year low of 2.5%, with inflation expectations at 3.6%, marking the widest gap in three years; the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.8%, near a two-year high. The derivatives liquidation heatmap shows that the short liquidation shelf between $82,000 and $86,000 has increased by 21% since the squeeze on August 19.

On-chain data analysis platform Glassnode stated that two cities produced more than half of the Solana blocks, with Frankfurt accounting for 33% and Amsterdam for 19%.These two cities have a total of 310 validators, which represents 46% of the total 675 network validators, and 53% when calculated by staking volume.

According to CoinDesk, Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin wallet groups have collectively turned to net selling for the first time since early June. Bitcoin fell below $80,000 after being blocked at the key resistance level of $83,000. The current Glassnode accumulation trend score is 0.37, close to 0, indicating selling, led by whales holding over 1,000 BTC.In the previous three months, almost all groups were actively accumulating, with Bitcoin trading sideways around $60,000. Bitcoin is also facing resistance at approximately $79,687, the 50-week moving average. However, the 50-day moving average may cross above the 200-day moving average as early as Tuesday, forming a golden cross, providing an optimistic signal for bulls, which means Bitcoin may eventually break through the resistance zone.

Glassnode released a report stating that a short squeeze in mid-August drove Bitcoin's rebound, breaking above $80,000 on August 27. However, the price subsequently encountered resistance in the long-term supply zone above and fell back to around $76,000, triggering a series of long liquidations. Currently, there is still a large amount of potential short liquidation positions clustered between $83,000 and $86,000, while the area between $60,000 and $63,000 contains an undigested long liquidation zone, with BTC positioned between the two.On-chain data shows that when Bitcoin traded around $78,000 in May this year, about 65% of the supply was in profit; by the end of August, when it returned to the same price level, that ratio had risen to 68%. The summer redistribution of chips pushed the cost basis of short-term holders to about $71,000, and the same price now would activate more profit-taking chips, increasing potential selling pressure. Considering the overall cost basis and chip distribution, the accumulation support zone is between $62,000 and $65,000, while the concentrated supply zone for long-term holders is between $83,000 and $86,000.The average net inflow of the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF during the rebound peaked at $290 million per day over seven days, but the daily trading volume in the secondary market remained around $3 billion, significantly lower than during the previous expansion phase. Meanwhile, the yield on U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds briefly fell to 4.6% after the Treasury's repurchase announcement on August 19, but returned to 4.8% in just eight trading days, reaching a new high for this cycle, indicating that sovereign debt pressure is still affecting market valuations. In the options market, short-term optimism has cooled, while long-term options demand remains. The open interest for Deribit and IBIT options expiring on September 25 is about $14 billion, with a large number of positions concentrated above $80,000, which may become important volatility and position anchor points in the coming weeks. Before the supply above $83,000 to $86,000 is digested, BTC will continue to maintain range-bound fluctuations, with $62,000 to $65,000 being the main downward reference area.

On-chain data analysis platform Glassnode posted on X that Bitcoin and the stock market are decoupling, with the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 approaching a nearly two-year low.Glassnode stated that the close relationship with stocks that previously defined the recent downward trend is fading.

Glassnode data shows that as BTC rebounds towards $80,000, the options market positions are clearly shifting towards a more positive outlook. The open interest in BTC options has risen back to nearly 550,000 BTC, and participation in the derivatives market is increasing again; the DVOL volatility index has rebounded to about 41, but it is still below the previous high volatility range of 50-60.Glassnode points out that the 25 Delta Skew across different maturities has significantly narrowed, with the short-term skew turning negative, indicating a decrease in demand for downside protection, and positions are leaning more towards a balanced or bullish direction. Currently, BTC is in a dense Gamma range of about $75,000 to $80,000, with recent capital flows concentrated at the $72,500 and $79,250 strike prices, where there has been a noticeable buying of call options, while demand for put options is relatively limited.

According to Glassnode data, the spot price is around $79,000, with the first significant cost-intensive zone located between $83,000 and $86,000, where there is a supply of approximately 1.05 million BTC held by long-term holders. This portion of chips has basically not been sold during the entire round of corrections and will become a key area to test whether "patient supply will sell near the break-even point."In the lower range of $62,000 to $65,000, there are about 1.44 million BTC, of which nearly two-thirds are held by recent buyers. Glassnode states that recent buyers are providing support, while long-term chips constitute the supply wall above. The cost basis for short-term holders is around $70,000.

According to The Block, Glassnode stated that $81,000 to $86,000 is the resistance wall between Bitcoin's current rebound and the January peak. Bitcoin has rebounded 26% since the August low.Glassnode pointed out that this round of Bitcoin's movement is supported by $2.23 billion in ETF inflows, continuous outflows from exchanges, and widespread accumulation among various wallet groups.

According to Glassnode analysis, Bitcoin has rebounded about 26% since the mid-August low, with a net inflow of $2.23 billion into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs during the same period, marking the strongest seven-day inflow of the year, with no single day of outflows. The amount of Bitcoin on exchanges has decreased, while various wallet sizes have simultaneously accumulated. The upcoming supply is concentrated in the $81,000 to $86,000 range, which overlaps with hotspot costs, re-listed sell orders, market maker gamma flips, and short liquidations.Glassnode states that this round of increases was ignited by the record short squeeze on August 19, with 85% of liquidations within the squeeze window being shorts, representing the largest single-day short liquidation since 2019 according to their statistical criteria. The open interest in futures has decreased by 11% in terms of coins, and the funding rate is close to neutral, indicating that the market is mainly driven by short stop-losses rather than new long leverage chasing the price up. Options pricing suggests that the market may maintain until late September, with attention on approximately $83,300 above and the $70,000 cost area and $62,000 to $65,000 support below.

CoinDesk cites data from Glassnode indicating that Bitcoin recently surged to $80,000, primarily driven by short sellers being forced to cover their positions, rather than a large influx of new buyers. This characteristic has historically made the market more sustainable.Data shows that as short positions were liquidated, Bitcoin futures open interest has dropped to 587,584 BTC, marking a nearly 5-month low. The market leverage level has decreased, providing a relatively more solid foundation for price trends.

According to analysis by Glassnode, the current altcoin market has entered an optimistic state, with approximately 85% of altcoin funding rates rising above their respective averages, marking the highest level for this metric since BTC was at historical highs.During the altcoin season, a similar funding rate environment may persist for several weeks.

Glassnode stated that high-conviction buyers have been continuously accumulating BTC since January of this year, a similar accumulation behavior was observed in 2022. It is worth noting that in this cycle, the proportion of BTC purchased by these buyers has already surpassed that of the previous cycle.

Glassnode stated that the last time Bitcoin saw such a significant daily closing price increase was in February of this year, primarily as a rebound from the previous day's 14% drop.This increase is not due to a technical rebound after a crash; relative to its 30-day volatility, this increase reached 5.8 standard deviations, marking the largest upward volatility since October 2023.

Glassnode stated that the spot price of Bitcoin has fallen below the comprehensive cost basis of publicly disclosed Bitcoin reserve companies, with the proportion of companies in a loss state rising to about 80%.

Glassnode co-founder Rafael Schultze-Kraft stated that the current low volatility environment of Bitcoin (BTC) does not necessarily indicate an investment opportunity, and the market may be forming a "volatility trap."Schultze-Kraft pointed out that the implied volatility of BTC is currently in the lowest 2% range of historical distribution, but the volatility level priced in the options market is still about 1.5 times that of the actual market volatility performance.He noted that the "volatility trap score" constructed by Glassnode has currently reached 91/100, the highest level in over 3.5 years. Schultze-Kraft believes that although the current market appears to be in an extremely low volatility state, the options prices do not fully reflect the actual trends, and the volatility premium paid by investors may be relatively high.This indicator shows that the market is experiencing a rare phase of volatility compression. Historically, similar extreme low volatility environments often create conditions for subsequent volatility expansion, but the specific direction still depends on capital flows, the macro environment, and market catalysts.

According to on-chain data analysis platform Glassnode, the current consumer confidence index has hit a historic low, yet the stock market continues to reach new highs. Funds are accelerating from cash into stocks, AI, and commodities, while Bitcoin has been significantly overlooked in this round of rotation.On-chain data shows that the heavy buy order support wall formed below the price has been continuously fading since June, and the bottom support structure is clearly thinning.

On-chain analysis firm Glassnode stated that the native support for Bitcoin has begun to disappear. The large buy walls accumulated below the price in June have started to withdraw, and the remaining support is clearly thinning, forming a weaker bottom structure.Glassnode indicated that it continues to closely monitor this indicator in its weekly updates, showing that the liquidity and buy thickness below the market are weakening, and attention should be paid to the subsequent price volatility risks.

Glassnode released the report "BTC Market Pulse: Week 32," stating that Bitcoin has recently fallen to around $62,600, with weak spot demand and rising defensive sentiment in the derivatives market. However, increased on-chain activity, confidence among long-term holders, and ETF capital inflows continue to support the market.The report pointed out that Bitcoin previously failed to maintain the rebound after breaking through $66,000 and has now retreated from the $65,000 range. The current price trend reflects a weakening of spot momentum, with sustained net selling pressure and low trading activity keeping the market in a consolidation phase lacking clear breakthrough momentum.In the derivatives market, the overall open interest has decreased, but the funding rate for perpetual contracts has rebounded, and active selling volume has eased. The options market remains defensive, with the 25 Delta skew widening, indicating increased demand for downside protection among investors, while speculative open interest continues to decline. The ETF market has shown improvement, with net inflows and trading volume both rebounding in the past week, indicating that institutional investors are reallocating funds through regulated channels.Regarding on-chain data, Glassnode noted that Bitcoin network activity has significantly increased, with the number of daily active addresses and adjusted transfer volume both breaking through the upper limit of the statistical range, indicating an increase in network usage and economic activity. At the same time, new capital inflows have slightly increased, and capital outflow pressure has eased. In terms of holding structure, the supply ratio of short-term holders to long-term holders remains close to historical lows, showing that long-term investors still maintain strong confidence.However, the overall profitability of the market continues to decline, with the proportion of profitable supply nearing a cyclical low, and investor spending behavior is more defensive, reflecting stop-loss strategies. Glassnode concluded that the current Bitcoin market is in a transitional phase, with stability among long-term holders, increased on-chain activity, and a rebound in ETF demand providing structural support. However, valuation pressure, insufficient spot momentum, and defensive positions in derivatives still limit market risk appetite.