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Tonight's Federal Reserve meeting preview: The "pause" in rate hikes in October is almost certain, how it will affect the probability of a rate hike in December becomes the focus

The Federal Reserve will announce its October interest rate decision at 2 AM Beijing time on the 29th. The market generally expects the federal funds rate target range to remain unchanged at 3.75%--4.00%, with a probability of maintaining the status quo at over 90%. The wording of the statement and whether Chair Waller's press conference will release more hawkish signals, as well as how this will affect the market's significantly priced probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in December, have become the focus of attention.Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Credit Agricole all expect a pause in October and a 25 basis point hike in December. Goldman Sachs stated that if rate hikes continue every other meeting through 2027, a hike in March may be considered, but the baseline forecast does not expect a hike in March. Citigroup mentioned that if the stock market continues to weaken, leading to a sharp tightening of financial conditions, the likelihood of a shift to rate cuts will significantly increase. Moody's believes there will not and should not be another rate hike this week. Nomura Securities expects no change in October and stated that while the Federal Reserve guides expectations for a pause, it retains flexibility for a rate hike in December.TD Securities expects no change in October and anticipates two more hikes in December and March. Huatai Securities expects no change in October, with two hawkish voters possibly casting dissenting votes, with the baseline scenario being one rate hike in December this year and two hikes next year. Morgan Stanley expects a 25 basis point hike in both December and March next year. Bank of New York Mellon expects rates to peak slightly above 4.5%. Bank of America believes there is ample reason to raise rates in October; if they remain unchanged, they will only retain one option for a future hike.

first_img Immunefi CEO: PHP vulnerability confirms the arrival of the AI vulnerability apocalypse as scheduled, urging vigilance against wallet risks

The vulnerability bounty platform Immunefi's CEO Mitchell Amador warned that internet users still face the risk of cyberattacks triggered by PHP vulnerabilities, especially small websites that are slow to adopt emergency upgrades, which may take weeks to patch. He stated, "The vulnerability apocalypse" is coming as planned, where the cost of discovering vulnerabilities becomes cheap while the cost of fixing them remains high. He advised users to treat any websites they log into in the coming weeks as potentially compromised, avoid reusing passwords, exercise caution when connecting to encrypted wallets, and revoke token authorizations that are unrecognizable.Previously, the PHP Foundation admitted that it delayed fixing a critical security vulnerability first discovered in 2024 due to resource shortages. PHP developers released emergency patches for two critical vulnerabilities on the same day, but each website still needs to complete the upgrade on its own. Cloudflare CEO Matthew Prince stated that within 24 hours of the PHP vulnerability being publicly disclosed, the web recorded millions of exploitation attempts, with thousands of attempts even before the disclosure. According to W3Techs, PHP supports about 69% of websites with known server-side programming languages, and these vulnerabilities could allow attackers to spread malware or inject malicious scripts into websites.The FBI's Cyber Division also warned that these vulnerabilities could allow malicious actors to "remotely execute code in the PHP core, potentially compromising sensitive data and networks." Amador warned in an interview with Cointelegraph in June that the proliferation of cutting-edge AI models has changed the cybersecurity landscape, giving attackers an advantage, leading to the emergence of the "vulnerability apocalypse," and triggering a resurgence of DeFi hacking attacks. Immunefi is the world's largest vulnerability bounty platform, having paid out $140 million in bounties to 650 protocols to date.
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