BTC $64,756.67 +1.02%
ETH $1,921.95 +1.48%
BNB $587.53 +3.53%
XRP $1.08 +1.33%
SOL $74.48 +1.72%
TRX $0.3280 +0.54%
DOGE $0.0703 +0.11%
ADA $0.1683 +3.17%
BCH $217.80 +3.77%
LINK $8.47 +2.17%
HYPE $53.76 -2.21%
AAVE $98.68 +0.20%
SUI $0.6957 +1.63%
XLM $0.1726 +0.20%
ZEC $475.00 +2.81%
BTC $64,756.67 +1.02%
ETH $1,921.95 +1.48%
BNB $587.53 +3.53%
XRP $1.08 +1.33%
SOL $74.48 +1.72%
TRX $0.3280 +0.54%
DOGE $0.0703 +0.11%
ADA $0.1683 +3.17%
BCH $217.80 +3.77%
LINK $8.47 +2.17%
HYPE $53.76 -2.21%
AAVE $98.68 +0.20%
SUI $0.6957 +1.63%
XLM $0.1726 +0.20%
ZEC $475.00 +2.81%

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first_img Fidelity Q3 Signal Report: The net unrealized gains and losses of BTC, ETH, and SOL are all at historical lows, with multiple indicators approaching the capitulation zone

According to the Q3 2026 signal report released by Fidelity Digital Assets, the prices of BTC, ETH, and SOL are generally at historical lows, with multiple indicators close to the capitulation zone. Fidelity believes that the current valuation levels may correspond to attractive long-term entry conditions.As of the end of Q2, the weighted net unrealized profit and loss (NUPL) was -0.01, with BTC being the only asset with a positive unrealized profit, approximately 10% above its cost basis, with an unrealized profit of about $108 billion, while ETH and SOL were approximately 30% and 41% below their cost bases, with unrealized losses of about $87 billion and $29 billion, respectively. BTC's market share rose to 68% quarter-over-quarter.The report states that, based on historical backtesting, the current NUPL readings for the three correspond to one-year median returns of 53%, 70%, and 542%, respectively, but the reliability of the samples decreases sequentially. The NUPL reading for SOL has only occurred 21 times in history, concentrated at the end of 2025, which has limited statistical significance.On the fundamental side, the value of stablecoin transfers for both ETH and SOL has reached new highs, exceeding $20 trillion and $2.6 trillion, respectively, over the past 12 months, but network fee revenue continues to decline.Additionally, the report attributes the 22% decline in BTC hash rate from its peak to miners shifting their computing power towards AI and high-performance computing, as AI contract revenues are more stable due to the depressed coin prices.

Data: The selling pressure on Bitcoin is easing, with losses down 56% from the peak, but the recovery in demand is still insufficient

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated that the current bear market phase of Bitcoin has seen the highest historical scale of holder realized losses, with the 30-day moving average (30DMA) of realized losses reaching $1.37 billion in February 2026, which is 19% higher than the cycle peak of $1.15 billion in 2022. Data shows that since the February peak, Bitcoin realized losses have decreased by 56.5%, currently down to about $597 million; meanwhile, the scale of realized profits has only slowly recovered to $257 million.Axel Adler pointed out that the sell-off pressure driven by losses has significantly weakened, but the market has not yet seen a sustained recovery in demand, with the rate of loss decline still outpacing the rate of profit recovery. Historically, on February 20, 2026, realized losses reached $1.37 billion, setting a historical high for this metric; the highest realized loss in the 2022 cycle was $1.15 billion, occurring on June 30, 2022. In terms of realized profits, as of July 23, the 30DMA of Bitcoin realized profits was $257 million, a decrease of 92.7% from the peak of $3.51 billion set on December 10, 2024; it was also down 77.7% from when Bitcoin hit its historical high of $124,710 on October 6, 2025. This metric had previously hit a low of $191 million on June 14, 2026, and has since rebounded by 34.7%.Axel Adler indicated that the selling pressure from profits has significantly decreased, and the amount of coins sold for profit is still at a low level in this cycle, but this does not mean that sellers have completely exhausted themselves, nor does it indicate that market demand has recovered. If realized profits continue to rise above $400 million to $500 million, it would further confirm a sustained improvement in the market. Additionally, the Bitcoin realized profit/loss ratio has rebounded from a low of 0.26 in June to 0.43, but it is still below the level of 1. Analysts noted that although the absolute scale of realized losses in the current cycle exceeds that of 2022, the relative market pressure remains lower than in 2022. Since Bitcoin's historical peak, there have been 190 days out of the past 291 days where realized losses exceeded realized profits. Axel Adler warned that if the profit/loss ratio falls below 0.26 again, accompanied by a price drop below the cycle low of $58,535 set on June 30, it could indicate further intensification of market pressure.

CertiK: The losses from wrench attacks have surged nearly 12 times, making operational security the new core of prevention

Web3 security company CertiK released the "2026 First Half Wrench Attack Report." The report shows that in the first half of 2026, a total of 52 publicly verified wrench attack incidents were recorded globally, an increase of 33.3% year-on-year; related losses amounted to approximately $124 million, an increase of about 11.8 times compared to the same period last year.The report points out that attackers are shifting from exploiting technical vulnerabilities to targeting asset holders and their real-world relationship networks, with home invasion incidents rising from 1 in the first half of 2025 to 20, accounting for 41% of the total incidents during the same period. Europe has become a high-frequency attack region, with 33 incidents occurring in France, accounting for 63.5% of global cases.CertiK states that as real-world risks become a significant challenge for digital asset security, businesses and high-value individuals need to establish a more comprehensive protection system. CertiK has launched operational security services to help identify risks related to the exposure of information such as identity, home, residence, and travel trajectory; at the same time, through CertiK Security Workspace, it correlates off-chain intelligence, on-chain transactions, and AML risk signals to support institutions in tracking and analyzing cybercrime activities.In addition, CertiK is strengthening cooperation with international law enforcement agencies such as Interpol and Europol to provide technical support for cross-border attack investigations and security policy research.

CertiK: In the first half of 2026, Web3 losses exceeded $1.3 billion, with attacks accelerating towards high-value targets

Web3 security company CertiK released the "Hack3D: First Half of 2026 Report." The report shows that in the first half of 2026, the Web3 ecosystem experienced a total of 344 security incidents, with cumulative losses of approximately $1.32 billion. Although this figure represents a 46.8% decrease compared to the same period last year, if we exclude the impact of the $1.45 billion security incident encountered by Bybit, the loss scale in the first half of this year has actually increased by about 28% year-on-year, indicating that the overall security environment in the industry has not seen substantial improvement.The report points out that wallet theft has become the largest type of attack causing financial losses, resulting in approximately $450 million in losses in the first half of the year; meanwhile, although the number of phishing attacks has decreased by over 50% year-on-year, the amount of losses has only decreased by about 10.8%, reflecting that attackers are increasingly targeting high-net-worth individuals and institutional targets, implementing more focused high-value attacks.In addition, code vulnerabilities remain the most frequently occurring type of attack, with related incidents reaching 204. CertiK believes that attackers are increasingly targeting long-running and outdated smart contracts that lack re-auditing.The report also shows that large-scale attack incidents continue to dominate industry losses, with the Kelp DAO and Drift Protocol incidents collectively causing approximately $577 million in losses, accounting for 44% of the total losses in the first half of the year. From the perspective of incident quantity, the impact of single attacks, and changes in attack patterns, the Web3 industry is facing increasingly complex and continuously escalating security challenges.

Data: 20% of active BTC investors are currently in a state of unrealized losses, and the market has entered a mild devaluation range

Cryptocurrency analyst Darkfost published an on-chain indicator interpretation on the X platform, analyzing the current profit and loss structure of Bitcoin positions in the market through the core economic indicator TMM (True Market Mean) and the AVIV ratio. The TMM indicator excludes long-term untransferred and partially permanently lost dormant Bitcoins, only accounting for the average holding cost of actively traded chips in the market, with the current value around $76,700. This level has become a significant price resistance, as during the May market, when the price reached this point, many investors exited to break even.The accompanying AVIV (Active Value / Investor Value) ratio currently hovers around 0.8, within the valuation discount range, indicating that the average floating loss for all active BTC investors is 20%. Historically, at the bottom of bear markets, this indicator has dropped to 0.5 to 0.6, corresponding to investor losses of 40%-50%. The current loss magnitude has not yet reached extreme bear market levels.The analyst also pointed out that even with a large influx of institutional funds and Bitcoin ETFs injecting massive liquidity in this cycle, Bitcoin still follows its own cyclical patterns. In the short term, there is no need to wait for the indicators to drop to historically extreme low levels before a rebound occurs, but it is necessary to acknowledge the current pressured environment of widespread losses among market participants.
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