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Bernstein lowers Circle's target price to $140, determining that the threat from Open USD will weaken

According to The Block, Bernstein has lowered Circle's target price from $190 to $140 while maintaining an outperform rating. Analyst Gautam Chhugani stated that the threat posed to Circle by the Open USD Alliance, supported by over 140 institutions including Visa, Mastercard, and Stripe, is lower than market expectations. As of July 28, Circle's closing price was $64.32.The end-of-quarter supply of USDC for the second quarter was approximately $73 billion, down from $77 billion in the first quarter, with the average supply rising to about $76 billion. The average SOFR for the second quarter decreased to 3.62%, the reserve return rate fell to 3.46%, and reserve income rose to approximately $655 million. The USDC balance on Hyperliquid has increased from $5 billion in mid-May to over $6 billion, generating about $210 million in annualized gross reserve income, of which approximately $190 million is directed to the exchange according to the revenue-sharing agreement.Bernstein has reduced its forecast for USDC supply at the end of 2026 by 37% to $83 billion and lowered its 2028 forecast to $170 billion; the adjusted EBITDA forecast for 2026 has been cut by 12% to $602 million, and the earnings per share (EPS) forecast has been lowered from $1.98 to $0.92. However, the firm expects that by 2035, the total supply of stablecoins will reach $4 trillion, with Circle holding about a 30% share. Additionally, Circle received final approval from the OCC in July to establish Circle National Trust.

Bitcoin's pullback impacts treasury companies, TD Cowen lowers Nakamoto's target price by 58% but maintains a "buy" rating

Wall Street investment bank TD Cowen has lowered the target price for Bitcoin treasury company Nakamoto Inc. (NASDAQ: NAKA), reducing the split-adjusted target price from $40 to $17, a decrease of 58%, but still maintaining a "Buy" rating. TD Cowen analysts stated that this adjustment is mainly due to the pressure on Nakamoto's highly leveraged capital structure from the decline in Bitcoin prices.Although the new target price still implies about a 275% upside from the current stock price of $4.65, the company's stock is highly sensitive to fluctuations in Bitcoin prices. TD Cowen expects Bitcoin to rebound to $100,000 by the end of 2026, which is about 25% lower than the historical high of $126,000 set last October. At the same time, the firm anticipates that Nakamoto will suspend further Bitcoin purchases before 2027.Analysts pointed out that Nakamoto's core value still comes from its Bitcoin assets, with the company currently holding 4,467 BTC, valued at approximately $290 million, ranking 22nd among publicly listed companies in terms of Bitcoin holdings. However, the company's debt and preferred stock financing structure have also compressed the asset value available to common stockholders. Recently, Nakamoto has completed several financial adjustments, including repaying approximately $45 million in debt, extending the principal of $105 million to June 2027, reducing financing costs, and approving a $25 million stock buyback plan. Additionally, the company has closed its previously operated medical clinic business and will focus on Bitcoin media, asset management, and consulting services in the future. Data shows that NAKA's stock price has fallen over 71% this year, while Bitcoin has declined about 26% during the same period. Market attention is shifting from "continuously purchasing BTC" to the asset-liability structure and financing capabilities of Bitcoin treasury companies.

Benchmark lowers Coinbase's performance expectations, the "CLARITY Act" may be an important catalyst for stock prices

Benchmark has lowered its second-quarter performance expectations for Coinbase ahead of the earnings report next week, citing weak trading activity in the cryptocurrency market, but still maintains a "Buy" rating and a target price of $270. Based on Coinbase's stock price of about $172 on Wednesday, this target price corresponds to an upside potential of approximately 57%.Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer has revised Coinbase's second-quarter revenue expectation from $1.51 billion to $1.38 billion and has lowered the full-year revenue expectation for 2026 from $6.33 billion to $6 billion. The trading volume on centralized exchanges in the second quarter has decreased by about 28%, and the total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market has dropped by about 13%. The firm expects Coinbase's trading revenue to decline by more than 5%.However, the market showed initial signs of stabilization in June, with spot trading volume exceeding $1 trillion for the first time since March, which may somewhat alleviate the weak performance in the second quarter.Benchmark believes that if the CLARITY Act is ultimately passed, it could become a more significant catalyst for the stock price than quarterly performance, with Coinbase potentially being one of the main beneficiaries of the act. Trump has previously agreed to the relevant ethical provisions, removing a key obstacle to the advancement of the bill.
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