bernstein

According to The Block, Bernstein has lowered Circle's target price from $190 to $140 while maintaining an outperform rating. Analyst Gautam Chhugani stated that the threat posed to Circle by the Open USD Alliance, supported by over 140 institutions including Visa, Mastercard, and Stripe, is lower than market expectations. As of July 28, Circle's closing price was $64.32.The end-of-quarter supply of USDC for the second quarter was approximately $73 billion, down from $77 billion in the first quarter, with the average supply rising to about $76 billion. The average SOFR for the second quarter decreased to 3.62%, the reserve return rate fell to 3.46%, and reserve income rose to approximately $655 million. The USDC balance on Hyperliquid has increased from $5 billion in mid-May to over $6 billion, generating about $210 million in annualized gross reserve income, of which approximately $190 million is directed to the exchange according to the revenue-sharing agreement.Bernstein has reduced its forecast for USDC supply at the end of 2026 by 37% to $83 billion and lowered its 2028 forecast to $170 billion; the adjusted EBITDA forecast for 2026 has been cut by 12% to $602 million, and the earnings per share (EPS) forecast has been lowered from $1.98 to $0.92. However, the firm expects that by 2035, the total supply of stablecoins will reach $4 trillion, with Circle holding about a 30% share. Additionally, Circle received final approval from the OCC in July to establish Circle National Trust.

According to The Block, Bernstein pointed out in its latest research report that the perpetual contract structure originating from the cryptocurrency market has first entered the AI computing power market. The Architect AX exchange, registered in Bermuda and not regulated by the CFTC, has launched GPU computing power perpetual contracts, which are anchored to spot prices through funding rates, a mechanism that directly originates from the cryptocurrency market. The cash-settled computing power futures from CME and ICE are still awaiting CFTC review, with a launch expected by the end of 2026.In addition, the CFTC-regulated prediction market platform Kalshi has previously launched prediction contracts linked to GPU rental prices and introduced the computing power pricing curves for B200, H200, and A100 chips on July 14, with the B200 quoted at $5.41 and a historical peak of $7.39.Bernstein noted that unused GPU computing power cannot be stored, and hedging is the only way to bear price risk. However, the current market liquidity is still dominated by speculative funds, and the difficulty in constructing computing power benchmark indices is also a major bottleneck in market development.

According to Jinshi News, Bernstein has raised its gold price target for 2026 to $4,533 per ounce, citing that central banks around the world are diversifying their reserves and that the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates only once or twice in the next year at most.

According to Coindesk, Bernstein stated in a research report released on Monday that Robinhood's newly launched blockchain, Robinhood Chain, has performed strongly since its launch, quickly becoming one of the most active networks for decentralized trading.The report noted that since the mainnet went live on July 1, the DEX trading volume on Robinhood Chain reached $3.1 billion in the past week, ranking it among the top five chains by DEX activity. Currently, over 65,000 users hold approximately $13 million in tokenized stocks and $300 million in stablecoins on the chain.Bernstein believes that the early adoption of Robinhood Chain highlights the accelerated integration of tokenized real-world assets with the broader DeFi ecosystem. The network is built on Arbitrum, an Ethereum Layer 2, supporting Robinhood's tokenized stock products, providing 24/7 trading, self-custody, as well as on-chain use cases such as lending and collateralization, and has integrated with partners like Uniswap, Morpho, Lighter, Chainlink, and BitGo.The report also stated that although the current early trading volume is primarily driven by meme coins, Robinhood is expected to focus more on tokenized stocks, commodities, and other RWA assets, as well as perpetual contract business in the future.

According to Jinshi reports, Bernstein has initiated coverage on SpaceX (SPCX.O) with an "Outperform" rating and a target price of $239.

According to The Block, Bernstein reiterated its outperform rating on Circle in a report released on Wednesday, maintaining a target price of $190, representing a potential upside of approximately 203%.Analysts believe that while Open USD shows that the stablecoin sector is widely recognized, it will be difficult in the short term to challenge Circle's network effects and liquidity advantages. Circle's USDC saw a trading volume of $5.3 trillion in the first half of 2026, a significant year-on-year increase, with its trading volume share rising from about 40% in 2025 to approximately 60% currently.At the same time, Bernstein also maintains an outperform rating on Coinbase, with a target price of $330.

Bernstein analyst Mark Newman significantly raised the target price for SanDisk (SNDK.O) from $1700 to $3000, maintaining an "Outperform" rating.The firm pointed out in its research report that the new Long-Term Agreement (LTA) for storage has undergone a structural change, shifting from being customer-favorable to more advantageous for suppliers. The new agreements typically include fixed or range-constrained pricing, commitments of prepaid funds that lock in customers and provide downside protection, and longer contract durations. Based on data provided by the company, Bernstein estimates that the floor price for SanDisk in the recently signed LTAs is approximately $0.29 per GB.

According to CoinDesk, Wall Street broker Bernstein pointed out in a recent report that the rapid integration of the market technology stack is increasing the likelihood of a new round of mergers and acquisitions in the field of sports event contracts and financial markets.The report states that in the past eight months, major prediction platforms have been developing towards simultaneously controlling customer distribution and exchange infrastructure. Although Kalshi and Polymarket have core technology stacks, their distribution capabilities are relatively lagging, making them potential acquisition targets.Recent actions include DraftKings acquiring Railbird to launch DKeX, Robinhood collaborating with Susquehanna to create Rothera, and Coinbase acquiring The Clearing Company. Bernstein believes that Robinhood and Coinbase are currently in a relatively advantageous position in the competitive landscape, as both have large consumer user bases and fully owned regulated infrastructures, while Kalshi and Polymarket are viewed as potential acquisition targets due to their lack of large-scale distribution capabilities.

According to The Block, Bernstein analysts stated that the 2026 FIFA World Cup will be the largest catalyst for the prediction market industry to date, expected to bring in over $3 billion in incremental betting volume and a $5-10 billion increase in consumer prediction market trading volume.The agency previously predicted that the prediction market industry would reach a trading volume of $1 trillion by 2030, with an estimated $240 billion in 2026 alone. Analysts believe that platforms such as DraftKings, Robinhood, and Coinbase will significantly benefit from the World Cup, with Robinhood's prediction market business expected to see a year-on-year revenue growth of 286% in 2026.

According to CoinDesk, Wall Street brokerage Bernstein released a research report indicating that the main driver of Bitcoin's price weakness in 2026 is a slowdown in capital flows, rather than the market's concerns about the threat of quantum computing.The report shows that this year, Bitcoin treasury companies and ETFs attracted approximately $12 billion in inflows, a significant decrease from $60 billion in 2025; ETFs recorded about $2.6 billion in net outflows based on an asset scale of $75 billion, with new demand primarily coming from corporate buyers represented by Strategy (MSTR). Bernstein analysts attribute the slowdown in funds to a large influx of retail investors into AI-related assets, with this year's strongest performance in the crypto market concentrated in tokenized stocks and commodities.Nevertheless, analysts believe that the scale of ETF outflows remains moderate, and the structure of Bitcoin investors has shifted from being dominated by retail investors to a more diverse group including ETFs, corporate treasuries, wealth management platforms, pension funds, and sovereign investors, resulting in a healthier market structure, with the long-term value storage logic remaining intact.

According to The Block, Bernstein analysts stated that despite a cumulative net outflow of $2.6 billion from Bitcoin spot ETFs in 2026, the long-term argument for Bitcoin as a store of value has not changed.Since the beginning of this year, the net inflow into ETFs and corporate treasuries has been approximately $12 billion (about $60 billion in 2025), with corporate treasuries being the main driving force. Glassnode data shows that 61% of the circulating Bitcoin supply has been idle for over a year.The accumulation of corporate funds is the main force offsetting ETF liquidations, with Strategy raising $7.5 billion through STRC preferred stock products to acquire approximately 100,000 Bitcoins, and its $53 billion Bitcoin position can cover more than 30 times STRC's annual cash dividends of $1.2 billion.Analysts added that although Bitcoin inflows have slowed, capital is shifting towards real-world asset (RWA) tokenization-related infrastructure, with platforms like Hyperliquid seeing significant growth in trading volume in tokenized stocks and commodities markets.

Bernstein analysts stated last week that Figure Technology Solutions' first-quarter financial report shows the company is rapidly becoming a unique presence in the blockchain market platform. The performance released by Figure on May 11 significantly exceeded Wall Street expectations in both revenue and EBITDA, with its core business transforming real-world credit assets into blockchain-native tools that can be traded and financed on-chain.Analysts believe Figure is building a blockchain-native capital market ecosystem, fundamentally differentiating itself from traditional balance sheet-based fintech lending platforms, and expect its stock FIGR to become a real-time reflection of blockchain loan volumes. Bernstein pointed out in a research report on May 15 that on-chain real-time data indicates Figure is about to welcome a record-breaking second quarter.Co-founder Mike Cagney introduced that the company's Forge platform can convert entire loans into small single-dollar liquidity participation units, addressing the liquidity challenges of RWA in DeFi. Bernstein previously estimated that the potential market size for annual credit issuance that could migrate on-chain could reach $4 trillion, while the current tokenized credit market is approximately $5.14 billion.

Bernstein reiterated its "Outperform" rating on Figure Technology Solutions (FIGR) and maintained a target price of $67, implying about a 72% upside from the current stock price of $38.97. Figure's Q1 2026 performance was strong: loan issuance reached $2.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 113%; adjusted revenue was $167 million, a year-on-year increase of 92%, exceeding market expectations by 6%; adjusted EBITDA was $82.7 million, with a profit margin of about 50%, slightly above market expectations. However, the GAAP diluted EPS was $0.18, about 9% below expectations, primarily impacted by $26 million in equity incentive expenses.Bernstein's analysis suggests that this performance should reshape the market's perception of Figure, as it is not a traditional credit company, but rather a "tokenization-driven capital market platform," with core profits coming from network fees and operational leverage, and it maintains a pricing model based on a 25x EBITDA valuation for 2027. Additionally, the tokenization ecosystem continues to expand: the yield-bearing security token YLDS reached $598 million (up 80% quarter-on-quarter); the balance of stock lending products was $368 million (up 79%); and the small business loan segment contributed $6 million in revenue. Figure's current stock price is still not far from the 2025 IPO issue price of $36, but there remains a significant gap from the historical high of $78.

Bernstein stated that it maintains a target price of $190 for Circle (CRCL): Although the decline in interest rates led to a quarter-over-quarter drop in reserve income of 11%, Q1 revenue of $694 million was slightly below expectations, but adjusted EBITDA reached $151 million, exceeding consensus by about 10%. Analysts pointed out that Circle's $222 million ARC token presale, completed at a fully diluted valuation of $3 billion, along with robust growth in USDC supply reaching $77 billion (a year-on-year increase of 28%), provides a buffer for the company.According to Gate's market data, Circle's stock closed at $131.76 on Monday, with the target price implying about a 44% upside. Bernstein reiterated that the upcoming launch of the Arc Layer 1 mainnet, the expansion of the payment network, and its leading position in AI agent payments (x402 standard) will support the long-term growth of USDC and maintain the fiscal year 2026 guidance unchanged.

According to Theblock, despite Robinhood's first-quarter performance falling short of expectations, Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani's team maintains an outperform rating on HOOD with a target price of $130.Analysts pointed out that the weak performance in the first quarter has already been reflected in the stock price. They highlighted that several core metrics of Robinhood remain strong: the margin loan balance reached a record $17 billion (up 93% year-over-year), event contract trading was active in April, predicting the market size is moving towards $3 billion, and Robinhood Gold subscription users increased by 36% year-over-year to 4.34 million.However, the current market shows that Robinhood (HOOD) is down over 10% in pre-market trading.

According to The Block, analysts at research firm Bernstein stated in their latest report that the fundamentals of the crypto market are continuously improving. The recent low of $60,000 for Bitcoin has formed a clear bottom, and the current price is approaching $80,000. Driven by institutional demand, a longer structural bull market is expected.Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani pointed out the following core driving factors:Institutional channels continue to expand: Morgan Stanley's Bitcoin ETF and Charles Schwab's spot Bitcoin/Ethereum trading platform have been launched one after another, with about 60% of Bitcoin supply not having moved for over a year, indicating a stable holder structure;Strategy continues to increase holdings: its STRC perpetual preferred stock product attracts income-focused investors, with current holdings reaching 818,334 Bitcoins;Demand for stablecoins reaches an all-time high: stablecoin supply has surpassed $30 billion, decoupling from the price cycle of the crypto market, showing that real payment and settlement demand continues to grow;Tokenization of real assets accelerates expansion: the scale of tokenized assets such as private credit and government bonds has reached $345 billion, a year-on-year increase of 110%.Bernstein also noted that quantum computing poses a long-term potential risk, but the blockchain ecosystem is expected to have ample time to complete the post-quantum security transition.

According to Globenewswire, the American law firm Bernstein Liebhard has announced that it has filed a securities fraud class action lawsuit on behalf of investors against the Nasdaq-listed cryptocurrency exchange Gemini Space Station, alleging that Gemini made false statements regarding its business operations and prospects in its prospectus and related disclosures, particularly accused of exaggerating the viability of its core cryptocurrency platform business. Investors wishing to serve as lead plaintiffs must submit their applications by May 18, 2026.It is reported that Bernstein Liebhard is a well-known investor relations law firm that has previously filed class action lawsuits against companies such as Ruhnn, Apple, and AsiaInfo-Linkage.

According to Theblock, the analyst team at research and brokerage firm Bernstein predicts that by 2030, the annual trading volume of the prediction market will reach $1 trillion, citing reasons such as regulatory clarity, mainstream distribution partnerships, and structural liquidity advantages compared to the traditional gaming market.It is reported that the trading volume of Kalshi and Polymarket has reached a total of $60 billion so far this year, with analysts expecting the trading volume to reach $240 billion by 2026 and maintain an 80% compound annual growth rate by the end of 2030.Sports entertainment contracts currently account for as much as 62% of the trading volume in the prediction market, but analysts predict that this share may slow down to around 31% by the end of 2030, as cryptocurrency, macroeconomic, political, and economic contracts will become larger long-term opportunities. They stated that sports events are just a starting point, not the ultimate goal.