prediction

According to the insider trading policy document submitted by Apple, the company prohibits individuals bound by this policy from using confidential information obtained in the course of their work at Apple or other companies to bet, trade, or buy and sell event contracts on prediction markets or similar platforms.The policy also prohibits disclosing relevant confidential information to individuals who may participate in such markets, regardless of whether the relevant actions constitute insider trading or securities trading under applicable law; the ban applies in all cases. The policy covers Apple directors, executives, employees, independent contractors, and consultants, and the document indicates that the policy was updated in October 2026.

The prediction market revenue protocol Robin Markets announced the shutdown of V1. The team stated that the initial version of the revenue product did not achieve the expected adoption and will be gradually phased out to allow for the re-launch of an improved version. The points program, revenue guarantees, and matching rewards will cease along with V1; these mechanisms were originally intended to incentivize liquidity but did not perform as expected. Existing products will continue to operate until the new version is launched by the end of this year.The team outlined two main issues. The first is position matching: V1 needs to match opposing YES and NO positions within each market's liquidity pool to combine funds into USDC for use, and the efficiency of funds depends on whether the distribution on both sides is relatively balanced. This creates a first-mover disadvantage, as tokens deposited early often remain idle before a counterparty appears, resulting in thin liquidity pools, and early users frequently cannot earn returns. The second issue is changes in the revenue environment: at the project's launch, the yield on USDC.e on Polygon was still considerable, and there was a partnership with Yearn; after October 10, more yield channels on Polygon shrank or lost competitiveness, weakening the original sources of revenue and placing greater pressure on subsidy guarantees. The team stated that insufficient matching and weakening revenue mutually influence each other, hindering the product's actual operation.Robin Markets positions itself as the capital efficiency layer of the prediction market, allowing users to stake Polymarket outcome tokens on Polygon while earning returns without losing their original market exposure. Public information shows that the project previously completed a $475,000 angel round of financing, with investors including Fabric VC, Animoca Brands, ATKA Incubator, John Lilic, Stefan D. George, and angel investors from Hilbert Capital, LayerZero, and others. The team stated that the next version will directly address the issues of matching mechanisms and revenue sources.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, the probability of the option "Yes" in the event "Republican Victory Prediction in Senate Swing States" on the prediction market Polymarket has experienced significant fluctuations, soaring from 32.5% an hour ago to the current 48.5% (a fluctuation of 16%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

Gemini has now launched new prediction markets for Zcash and Hyperliquid.

Live prediction market CRSHMARKET announced the completion of a $3.5 million seed round financing, led by 6th Man Ventures, with participation from Reciprocal Ventures, Lattice Fund, and Starting Line. The project stated that the funds will be used to build a live prediction market, allowing users to predict the outcomes of live content and settle within 60 seconds.CRSHMARKET officially introduces its product supported by Monad, headquartered in New York, with co-founders including Evan Rama, Param Patel, and Lucas Pichette. The project previously disclosed that, approximately four months after launch, the trading volume exceeded $10 million, the number of users surpassed 50,000, and over 550,000 transactions had been processed, having also completed over $1 million in financing.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the "Bitcoin November Price Prediction" event on the Polymarket market, the "Yes" option for the sub-market "Above $77,500" has experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, soaring from 70.4% an hour ago to the current 88.55% (a fluctuation of 18.15%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to Artemis data, the total market trading volume in October is projected to reach 123.3 billion dollars, marking the first time it has surpassed 100 billion dollars, an increase of approximately 53.9% compared to the record in September, with the number of trades reaching 642.9 million.Among them, Kalshi's trading volume is 98.2 billion dollars, accounting for about 80%, with 465.5 million trades; Polymarket's trading volume is 20.2 billion dollars, with 14.8 million trades. The parlay products driven by the football season are the main driving force, accounting for 67.6% of Kalshi's monthly trading volume, with most contracts priced at less than 1 cent. Kalshi counts the trading volume based on a full payout value of 1 dollar per contract, and this data does not equal the actual funds invested by traders.In addition, the trading volume in the U.S. midterm election market exceeded 1.4 billion dollars, and the trading volume of cryptocurrency contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket has surpassed 3 billion dollars for two consecutive weeks for the first time. Polymarket's U.S. platform trading volume in October approached 10 billion dollars, an increase of approximately 15% compared to the previous record.

Binance co-founder He Yi posted that the security audit between the prediction market and the Binance main site wallet is still in progress and will be slightly deprioritized.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the "Bitcoin October Price Prediction" event on the prediction market Polymarket, the "Yes" option for the sub-market "Below $77,500" has experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, soaring from 58% an hour ago to the current 73% (a fluctuation of 15%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the "Bitcoin October Price Prediction" event on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of the "Yes" option in the sub-market "75,000 USD" has experienced significant fluctuations, soaring from 15.75% an hour ago to the current 30.95% (a fluctuation of 15.2%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction event "Ethereum October Price Prediction" on Polymarket, the "Yes" option in the sub-market "Below $2,200" has seen a dramatic fluctuation in winning probability, soaring from 42.5% an hour ago to the current 59.5% (a fluctuation of 17%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to Bloomberg, as the U.S. midterm elections on November 3 approach, the commercial collaborations between prediction market platforms Kalshi, Polymarket, and media groups such as CNN, CBS News, CNBC, Dow Jones, and Fox are attracting attention. Bloomberg estimates, based on Dune data, that the cumulative trading volume of midterm election-related prediction markets on the two platforms is approximately $1.5 billion.The report states that CNBC's collaboration with Kalshi involves customer acquisition and minority equity investment, CBS News lists Kalshi as a sponsor of the prediction market, and the Wall Street Journal under Dow Jones showcases Polymarket data. CNN indicated that it would not reference prediction odds during live broadcasts on election night, while Fox News explicitly excluded political reporting from its collaboration with Kalshi. The financial terms of the related agreements are mostly undisclosed, and some media commentators are concerned that commercial interests may affect the independence of news reporting.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the "Bitcoin October Price Prediction" event on the Polymarket, the "Yes" option for the sub-market "75,000 USD" experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, dropping from 49% an hour ago to the current 27.55% (a fluctuation of 21.45%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

The financial prediction market platform SignalMarkets, associated with Crypto.com, announced the launch of its platform on October 29 and revealed the event Signal Summit 2026. The theme of the event is "Watch Politics Move Markets in Real Time," which will be held both offline and online in Boston on November 3 at 6 PM Eastern Time. Registration is required in advance, and on-site seats are limited; participation is free of charge.SignalMarkets focuses on economic, financial, business, and political events, positioning itself as an investment-oriented prediction market. The event will discuss the potential implications of changes in election expectations on investment decisions and portfolio risk through real-time market commentary, interactive discussions, and case studies, and will introduce its Signal Chains related to market correlations. Founder Joel Shulman stated that election night is suitable for introducing the platform, allowing participants to observe how new information alters expectations and how the market reacts.The company introduction states that SignalMarkets was founded by investment practitioners and scholars, focusing on event trading, market analysis, and portfolio risk management. Participation in the event is educational in nature and does not require trading. The company also notes that event contracts involve financial risks, including the possibility of losing the invested amount, and whether trading is open depends on applicable regulatory and operational requirements.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the "Bitcoin October Price Prediction" event on the Polymarket, the "Yes" option for the sub-market "77,500 USD" experienced a dramatic fluctuation in winning probability, soaring from 13.05% an hour ago to the current 51.15% (a fluctuation of 38.1%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to CoinDesk, Polymarket has launched five-minute cryptocurrency price prediction contracts on its regulated U.S. platform. The platform is operated by QCX LLC and is regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).Traders can predict whether assets such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP will close above or below the starting price within five minutes. A correct prediction pays $1 per share, while an incorrect one goes to zero, structured similarly to binary options.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the "Bitcoin October Price Prediction" event on the prediction market Polymarket, the "Yes" option for the sub-market "82,500 USD" experienced dramatic fluctuations in winning probability, soaring from 17.5% an hour ago to the current 50.5% (a fluctuation of 33%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to CoinDesk, Utah has filed criminal charges against the prediction market platform Kalshi (KalshiEX LLC) and its co-founders Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, claiming they illegally promoted gambling in the state.The prosecution has brought a total of 14 charges, including 1 felony for alleged ongoing illegal activity, 12 charges for promoting online gambling, and 1 misdemeanor for gambling. The basis for the prosecution is evidence collected by an undercover investigator from the Utah Attorney General's Office.

According to Bloomberg, Sarah Court, the chair of the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC), stated at a parliamentary hearing that the agency has not received any applications submitted by prediction market operators. Prediction market platforms like Polymarket may face strict regulation in Australia, and any application for an operating license will also undergo rigorous scrutiny.Sarah Court pointed out that the trading mechanisms of prediction markets are similar to the binary options that have been banned in Australia, characterized by a win-or-lose outcome, and the trading subjects are often unrelated to investment or financial markets. Although Australian users can directly access relevant overseas platforms, they are not protected by local financial regulations, making it difficult to obtain dispute resolution and customer fund protection measures.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the "Bitcoin October Price Prediction" event on the prediction market Polymarket, the "Yes" option in the sub-market "Below $80,000" experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, dropping from 78.5% an hour ago to the current 59.5% (a fluctuation of 19%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.