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first_img a16z Weekly Report: Listed GPU rental prices are higher than at the beginning of the year, Netflix's growth rate is about 12%

The venture capital firm a16z released a chart weekly report written by Moses Sternstein on October 23, 2026. The report states that Netflix is still growing, with revenue growth slowing to just below about 12%, the lowest level since 2021 to 2022. The company is producing its own short videos and entering live sports. The report cites BCG data indicating that the upper limit of media consumption in the U.S. is about 26 hours per week, showing a moderate decline since the peak of lockdowns. Moses Sternstein: Competition comes not only from other streaming services but also from short videos, with much of the recent media growth coming from background consumption while driving or working.In terms of computing power, the report cites Ornn Data stating that the rental price of every GPU in the chart series is higher than at the beginning of the year, including the oldest A100, which is about 9% to 143% higher compared to a 6-year straight-line depreciation. Moses Sternstein: Over a longer period, older A100 and H100 GPUs spend more time below that line, but have only shown significant strength since April this year, making comparisons over a longer period not entirely fair. According to OpenRouter, token demand surged sharply in spring, jumped again after a brief plateau at the end of summer, with token consumption for both open-source and closed-source models still following an exponential path, and the share of proprietary models slightly increased last week. The author states that OpenRouter only covers a very small portion, and these indices are not perfect proxies for actual token spending and GPU pricing.In manufacturing, the report states that computer production capacity and utilization rates are rising, with production increases being larger. The increase in communication and semiconductor production mainly comes from expansion, while the price increase for electrical equipment is the largest, but domestic production has slightly declined. The import increase of key categories of AI capital expenditures mentioned above far exceeds the domestic production increase in dollar terms. According to ADP, the increase in average weekly hours for industries related to AI construction is greater than that of other industries, and is generally greater than the net increase in personnel. Job switchers in manufacturing have about a 5 percentage point wage growth premium compared to stayers. Cybersecurity stocks remain strong in IGV this year, but have seen a larger pullback than the market since October. The revenue growth rate of large companies has mostly only increased by a few percentage points, with some experiencing declines, and stock price performance reaching up to about 125%, with Palo Alto Networks' revenue growth largely driven by acquisitions.

first_img Evan Conrad: Most AI startups cannot purchase computing power

Evan Conrad published an article on October 22 titled "The end of startups," with the subtitle "The coming credit crunch." Evan Conrad stated that within the next six months, most AI startups will be unable to purchase computing power, as global computing power is sold out. To obtain capacity, new clusters need to be contracted, and it is becoming increasingly difficult for non-investment-grade entities to secure online capacity.Evan Conrad mentioned that startups are not investment-grade, thus they are required to pay larger upfront payments. He has seen cases where 100% of the contract amount is required to be prepaid, as lenders and cloud providers are unwilling to take on additional credit risk. He believes that investment-grade tenants are scarce, and due to leveraging and selling to non-investment-grade token buyers, their ratings are downgraded, which he refers to as a credit bottleneck. He anticipates that investment-grade GPU buyers will increasingly demand that token buyers themselves be investment-grade or pay large upfront deposits.In the article, he provides an example where, at the time of writing, B300 could be purchased for $6 per hour and then sold for approximately $30 per hour for inference. He expects GPU prices to rise, and the gross margin for inference layers to decline, making it harder for clients with poor credit to obtain tokens. He proposed that lenders treat GPU clusters as collateral and stated that the physical delivery forward market SF Compute could allow lenders to use GPU hours on a liquidity book as collateral, rather than relying on a single service provider's cluster.

first_img Kerman Kohli: The bottleneck of computing power financing lies in credit

Cryptocurrency researcher Kerman Kohli published "Compute Financing" on Substack on October 19, 2026, discussing financing for computing power construction. He believes one of the main bottlenecks is capital, especially credit: early expenditures mainly come from balance sheet cash, followed by a shift to equity financing. The article cites Alphabet's $85 billion financing and Meta's fundraising through shareholder dilution, with the next step being the credit market.Kohli summarizes the current beliefs of creditors into three points, which he believes are incompatible: AI may be a bubble; the biggest risk is counterparty risk in purchase contracts; the underlying GPUs are not valuable and depreciate like ordinary hardware. He argues that demand is closer to infinite, stating that the demand for agentic AI is growing by about 2.5 to 5 times each year, with supply potentially doubling by the end of 2030. Memory is expected to sell out by 2027, with computing power commitments reaching trillions of dollars, and he mentions Jane Street's multi-billion dollar commitments, as well as the needs of pharmaceutical companies, research, military, and cybersecurity.Regarding efficiency, he states that when the cost of intelligence drops by 90%, the increase in usage is even greater, with a baseline exceeding 10 times, and he cites Jevons' Paradox.On the topic of purchasing, Kohli believes that computing power is more substitutable than real estate; when demand is strong, if someone withdraws their commitment, others will take over. He mentions that many creditors require 2 to 3 year contracts and down payments of 20% to 30%, sometimes as high as 50%, and locking in long-term discount contracts effectively shorts computing power for lenders. The article also states that computing power rental prices have risen by about 50% in the past 6 months and about 100% in the past year, with B300 supplies being tight. Regarding collateral, he notes that the A100 from 2020 is still operational and rented out until 2029, leading him to believe it has at least about 9 years of use value; the current price of B200 is about 50% higher than when it was released about two years ago, and a 6-year-old A100 is still worth about 25% of its value. He concludes that computing power will surpass real estate to become the largest asset class, and the scale of credit-supported computing power is currently just beginning.

Silicon Valley venture capital targets GPU computing power, a16z plans to expand with about 20,000 cards

Multiple venture capital firms in Silicon Valley are competing to secure GPU computing power to provide exclusive resources for their AI startups. a16z established a computing power pool of about 20,000 GPUs as early as 2024 and is negotiating expansion with data center companies Switch and Volta. General Catalyst plans to build a data center for its portfolio companies and has brought in the former head of NVIDIA DGX Cloud in May this year to oversee AI infrastructure operations.Even if AI startups complete their financing, they may not be able to rent GPUs in a timely manner. In April this year, major cloud providers like Microsoft were reported to prioritize allocating computing power to internal teams and large clients, leaving some startups facing months of waiting. a16z previously disclosed that during times of computing power shortages, prices that could originally be secured with a six-month contract might require a three-year commitment. Model training requires a large amount of GPU usage in a short period, while inference demand is difficult to predict, making it easy to waste funds by locking in computing power for several years in advance.a16z is concentrating on purchasing and leasing computing power through the Oxygen project, redistributing it to its portfolio companies, allowing them to access prices and contract terms typically reserved for large clients. In August this year, a16z co-led a $300 million financing round for Volta, which is valued at $2.4 billion, with investments covering both AI startups and data center companies providing computing power. The small venture capital firm Crucible Capital has built a cluster with 576 NVIDIA B300 GPUs for its portfolio companies to test, while also selling some computing power to a cutting-edge AI laboratory. This model allows venture capital firms to take on investments that were previously mainly borne by cloud providers and data center operators.

first_img Analysis: Some B300 transaction prices exceed 24 USD per hour

User gpugene stated during a discussion on computing power trading: Some B300 transaction prices have exceeded 24 dollars per GPU hour, and the price of computing power with a term shorter than 1 year remains above 7 dollars and is still rising. gpugene expressed the hope to use computing power derivatives to guard against the rise in GPU hour prices while retaining the flexibility to adjust rental durations; if inference clouds sell services at fixed prices and their own GPU bills fluctuate, they have effectively taken on the risk of computing power price changes.The article provides an example where a supplier can offer a plan for 2048 B300s, available for rent for 5 years at 4.15 dollars per GPU hour, corresponding to an amount of 372,264,960 dollars. If the client goes live after 12 months and uses this scale from the 13th to the 15th month, the total would be 4,485,120 GPU hours. gpugene calculated that the current premium for a call option with an exercise price of 4.50 dollars is approximately 4.83 million dollars; if changed to a compound option, the current payment would be about 2.70 million dollars, with an additional payment of about 4.49 million dollars upon exercising in the 12th month.gpugene also compared 4000 hypothetical 5-year rental and demand paths. The average cost of annual renewal is 4.72 dollars per hour, with the worst 5% scenario averaging 10.91 dollars; after adding the call option, these figures change to 4.88 dollars and 7.20 dollars, respectively, with the premium included. gpugene believes that the emerging computing power derivatives market may change how neocloud and related participants expand and protect themselves.
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