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pricing

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Flash

Analysis: Binance's ETH open contracts priced in USD have halved compared to last year's peak, but the ETH pricing is close to its peak

CryptoQuant analyst BaykusCharts stated that Binance's Ethereum open interest is currently about 5.8 billion USD, which is about half of last summer's peak of over 12 billion USD. On the surface, this looks like large-scale deleveraging, but open interest is denominated in USD, and the ETH price has also dropped by about half during the same period. When converted to ETH, the current open interest is about 2.5 million ETH, close to the peak of about 2.5 million ETH. Therefore, the decline is primarily driven by price rather than traders closing their positions.In terms of funding rates, the significant positive premiums seen in early 2021 and early 2024 have disappeared. After experiencing several periods of negative funding rates this year, it is currently just slightly above zero, with both long and short positions not overly crowded, and longs are not paying significant premiums. Analysis suggests that there is still a large amount of leveraged ETH exposure in the market, but there is a lack of strong directional confidence. This limits the risk of a one-sided liquidation chain reaction, but it also means that any decisive breakthrough in either direction could accelerate quickly. The key signals are: a price increase and a sharp rise in funding rates indicate long crowding; a price decrease and an increase in open interest indicate a growth in short positions.

HTX Research Analyst WZ: The pricing of the cryptocurrency market is extending outward, with regulation and macro liquidity becoming key variables

In the seventh live broadcast of the Huobi Expert Lecture, HTX Research asset analyst WZ pointed out that in the past, people were accustomed to explaining Crypto with Crypto, but today, the variables that determine the next phase of Crypto are increasingly occurring outside of Crypto. This marks a new pricing cycle that Crypto is entering.On the policy level, WZ believes that although the Clarity Act, which has systematic characteristics, is hindered in the Senate due to the need to secure bipartisan votes and issues involving the Trump family's interests and stablecoin profit distribution, U.S. crypto regulation has not stalled. For instance, the SEC recently released an "innovation exemption" plan that allows compliant institutions meeting certain conditions to tokenize specific stocks, accelerating the integration of traditional finance and crypto.On the macro level, WZ stated that the situation in the Middle East and the blockage risk in the Strait of Hormuz have raised the "risk premium" of crude oil. Rising oil prices can trigger inflation expectations, which in turn affect U.S. Treasury yields and global liquidity. When energy prices remain high and interest rates stay elevated, the upward potential for risk assets like Bitcoin may be constrained.WZ also pointed out that in this cycle, the direct inflow and outflow of ETF funds have changed the traditional logic of capital overflow, making a "general rise" pattern for altcoins difficult to achieve. However, in the new cycle, assets with a "new narrative" and strong consensus will still experience independent upward trends.

The CFTC warns that event contract markets have an obligation to display clear and accurate derivative pricing information

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) issued a notice reminding regulated entities involved in the listing, promotion, or acceptance of event contracts to ensure that consumers are provided with clear and accurate product pricing information, avoiding misleading market participants, including the obligation to display clear and accurate derivative pricing information.The CFTC's Market Oversight and Market Participants divisions stated that registered entities and relevant personnel must comply with regulatory requirements, ensuring that users fully understand the product attributes in the CFTC-regulated market, and strengthen the supervision of information disclosure by intermediaries, related parties, and partners. It was also specifically pointed out that displaying event contract prices using the common "American odds format" may mislead traders' understanding of the product nature and prevent users from fully obtaining key trading information such as market depth and price impact.The CFTC requires that market participants clearly show consumers that the products are event contracts on CFTC-regulated exchanges, and any misleading pricing display behavior related to regulated products may violate relevant provisions of U.S. federal law regarding the prohibition of manipulative trading practices.
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