gdp

The U.S. September PCE data and the preliminary GDP for the third quarter will be released tonight at 20:30. The stickiness of inflation and the slowdown in economic growth will be key factors for the market to assess the outlook for Federal Reserve policy. If the data significantly deviates from expectations, it may trigger fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields, the dollar, and U.S. stocks.

Dominion Securities expects the U.S. GDP growth rate in the third quarter to accelerate from 2.2% to 2.5%, indicating that the economic fundamentals remain strong. Although net exports and inventories may weigh down, consumption and investment remain robust. The core PCE price index is expected to rise year-on-year from 3% to 3.1%.

Federal Reserve Chairman Waller stated that the GDP for the third quarter may exceed 3%.

Due to an increase in imports, the U.S. goods trade deficit widened by 2.1% in September to $134.9 billion, exceeding economists' forecast of $130.2 billion. Last month's goods imports rose by $8.1 billion to $344.1 billion, while goods exports increased by $5.3 billion to $209.2 billion.The AI investment boom has driven imports, and trade has not contributed to GDP growth for three consecutive quarters. Economists predict a year-on-year GDP growth rate of 3.2% for the third quarter.

In September, new orders for core manufacturing capital goods in the United States increased, and shipments surged significantly. The U.S. Department of Commerce stated that in September, non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft rose by 0.5%, up from 1.6% in August. Shipments of core capital goods increased by 1.2%, higher than the 0.6% in August. Economists expect the annualized GDP growth rate for the third quarter to exceed 3%.

Vitalik Buterin posted on the X platform stating that he does not predict that defense will automatically lead over offense, but believes that cybersecurity will ultimately trend towards a favorable outcome for defense, although the transition process will be very difficult.He pointed out that "good people discovering vulnerabilities in released software before bad people" does not belong to a game where defense has the advantage. To truly tilt the game towards defense, a deeper methodological shift is needed, including formal verification, radical reduction of the Trusted Computing Base (TCB), etc., and currently, these shifts have only just begun. He also stated that this is an important reason for his friendly attitude towards slowing down or pausing AI development, and called for investing more than 1% of GDP into cybersecurity, biosecurity, and the fortification of the physical world.

On October 19, the State Council Information Office held a press conference, and the National Bureau of Statistics announced the economic data for the first three quarters. Preliminary calculations show that the gross domestic product for the first three quarters was 10,710.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% at constant prices.China's GDP annual rate for the third quarter was 4.5%, expected to be 4.40%, and the previous value was 4.30%.

Jack Clark, co-founder and head of public interest at the artificial intelligence company Anthropic, stated on Saturday at the International Monetary Fund and World Bank annual meeting in Bangkok that the rapid enhancement of AI capabilities will bring about more rapid transformations. The company's internal models predict that under certain conditions, by 2030, AI is expected to boost the U.S. economic output by nearly 50%. He emphasized the need for international cooperation to establish "extraordinary and stringent rules" for this technology, noting that the window for policymakers to take action is narrowing.Clark mentioned that the potential size of the U.S. GDP is expected to reach $44 trillion, currently just above $30 trillion, with this forecast based on the assumption of continued technological advancement. He warned policymakers that increasing evidence points to a "technological singularity," where the pace of AI development will exceed human control, and advancements in not only AI but the entire scientific field will accelerate in the coming years. He stated that despite recent incidents of uncontrolled AI systems escaping testing environments and breaching websites and databases, AI is still under human control, but the window for building safety measures is closing, with only a few years remaining.As Clark made these remarks, Anthropic is preparing for an IPO, expected to go public in November. Recent reports indicate that its IPO valuation expectations have been lowered to the $1.5 trillion range, down from the previous market expectation of about $2 trillion. He also mentioned that AI could serve as a force multiplier for scientific discovery, and more countries could participate in AI development by building data center computing infrastructure; AI is causing job losses in areas like call centers and customer service, while promoting employment in fields such as scientific research.

The scenarios envisioned in the IMF World Economic Outlook report indicate that global GDP will decrease by 1.1% by 2028 due to the withdrawal of investments in artificial intelligence and a sharp decline in asset prices.

The IMF World Economic Outlook report predicts that the global real GDP growth rate will be 3.1% in 2026, up from the July forecast of 3%, as investments in artificial intelligence have alleviated the energy price shocks in major economies.The forecast for the global economic growth rate in 2027 is 3.4%, unchanged from the July forecast.

IMF President Kristalina Georgieva stated that global public debt is about to exceed 100% of global GDP, with developed economies performing the worst in terms of high debt burden.

The final annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the United States for the second quarter was 2.2%, higher than the expected 1.5%, and the previous value was 1.5%.

Elon Musk stated on the social media platform X that artificial intelligence could double the U.S. economic growth rate from about 2% to 4% next year, and it may even be higher.Apollo's Chief Economist Torsten Slok estimates that from 2027 to 2029, U.S. capital expenditures related to artificial intelligence could reach around 3% of GDP each year. Moody's analysts say that U.S. tech companies are expected to invest nearly $1 trillion in chips and data centers by 2027.

The Federal Reserve FOMC economic forecast shows that the median GDP growth rate expectation for 2029 is 2.1%.

The Federal Reserve FOMC economic forecasts show that the median GDP growth expectations for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are 2.3%, 2.4%, and 2.2%, respectively, compared to previous expectations of 2.2%, 2.3%, and 2.2%.

Anthropic's economic team builds models to analyze the impact of AI on employment, growth, and unemployment in the United States. The model views the economy as a combination of tasks based on the U.S. Department of Labor's O*NET classification, where AI can keep tasks unchanged, enhance, automate, or create new tasks. The U.S. economy is described as having a task instance value of over $30 trillion.Three scenarios depend on AI capabilities and adoption speed: the moderate scenario is similar to the internet, with U.S. GDP increasing by 1.6% by 2030 ($34.1 trillion in 2025 prices), labor share at 59.4%, and capital share at 40.6%; in the substantial scenario, AI can perform half of knowledge work, GDP increases by 8.3% ($36.3 trillion), and wages for knowledge workers remain roughly stable, with a labor share of 56.1%; in the extreme scenario, AI is much more efficient in the vast majority of knowledge work and completes it almost entirely autonomously, with GDP increasing by 32.4% ($44.4 trillion), wages for knowledge workers dropping by over 10%, a labor share of 45.2%, and an unemployment rate exceeding typical recession levels.A survey conducted in August with over 10,000 Americans showed that typical responses were close to the substantial scenario (2030 GDP about 10% higher, unemployment rate about 5%), with about 10% of respondents nearing the extreme scenario. GDP increases in all scenarios, and transformative scenarios require more job transitions. The page provides a technical report and an interactive explorer.

The revised GDP price index for the United States in the second quarter is 6.4%, higher than the expected 6.2%, and the previous value was 6.2%.

The revised annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the United States for the second quarter is 1.5%, in line with expectations, with the previous value being 1.5%.