asml

ChainCatcher reports, according to Rootdata market data, US stocks pre-market chip stocks up: MU.O up 4.4%, MRVL.O up 2.2%, INTC.O up 2.2%, AMD.O up 2%, ARM.O up 1.7%, ASML.O up 1.7%, AMAT.O up 1.6%.

Elon Musk revealed that ASML and other semiconductor equipment suppliers are accelerating the delivery of equipment for Tesla and SpaceX's Terafab chip project. Musk stated during SpaceX's third-quarter earnings call that he appreciates the suppliers for speeding up equipment delivery to help achieve the goals.The Terafab project aims to meet the demand for AI processors and other chips from Tesla and SpaceX, with plans to achieve large-scale chip production by 2028.

Semiconductor analyst Jukan shares a commentary translated into English by him, authored by a salesperson from a local Chinese sell-side institution. The individual states: In mid to late September, hardware quickly transitioned into a downward wave, with China and South Korea adjusting first, experiencing deeper declines and longer durations, followed by Japan, Taiwan, and the semiconductor ETF SOXX weakening subsequently; there is significant divergence in the market regarding whether AI is entering a mid-cycle collapse, but there is less controversy about the industry still advancing.The individual summarizes the views of interviewed investors: High long-term interest rates in the U.S., capital expenditures beginning to rely on external financing and competing for funds in the market, multi-layered leverage accumulation, and tight funding are the main reasons for this round of decline, with companies like CoreWeave experiencing a noticeable deterioration in financing structure and cost burden. Model invocation prices are decreasing, but capital expenditures and supply chain costs are difficult to reduce quickly, making short-term investment returns hard to realize. ASML and TSMC's guidance this season is strong, but near-term pressures cannot be ruled out; the bullwhip effect and differences in value chain levels may cause volatility to be greater than expected.The individual also mentions that use cases beyond coding are emerging in scenarios such as SaaS and AI drug development, which may gradually alleviate investment return concerns and expand demand. His personal judgment: Before more evidence emerges, the current situation resembles a high-volatility phase rather than a collapse that has already begun; the decline may not yet be over, and hardware leadership may give way to applications. Even if control of both houses changes in the midterm elections, the impact may mainly be limited to constraints on certain data center projects, and the U.S. earnings season needs to verify the performance of large technology companies.

On October 15, the semiconductor research organization SemiAnalysis published an article stating that the lithography equipment manufacturer ASML has not officially announced related products, but patents, news reports, and the company's roadmap all indicate that it is developing hybrid bonding equipment. The author of the article judges that ASML may first launch more challenging chip-to-wafer hybrid bonding tools and view it as an extension of vertical integration.Patents show that the system operates on a track, with each chip placed in an independent carrier, sequentially completing inspection, cleaning, plasma activation, morphology inspection, leveling, coarse alignment, position adjustment, and fine alignment before entering the bonding station; the final placement is completed by the carrier and suction cup. The track's repeat accuracy is about 10 microns, far from the approximately 50 nanometers required for bonding. ASML submitted 27 bonding patent families from December 2022 to November 2024, most of which are aimed at chip-to-wafer. The Elec reported in March that ASML has begun hybrid bonding machine architecture design with Prodrive Technologies and VDL ETG.The article states that wafer-to-wafer hybrid bonding has been used for image sensors and 3D NAND; chip-to-wafer is currently only used for mass production of logic chips, including AMD's hybrid bonding V-Cache shipped since 2022 and TSMC's SoIC. The current spacing of SoIC is about 6 microns, with a target of reaching approximately 4.5 microns by 2029. Besi is currently the only supplier with chip-to-wafer mass production tools, with related logic business mainly concentrated in TSMC and Intel.

Global leading chip equipment manufacturer ASML's Chief Financial Officer Roger Dassen stated that the company opposes a proposal in the U.S. Congress to restrict its sales of DUV lithography equipment to China, believing it is a bad idea. This statement came during a conference call with reporters following the company's third-quarter earnings release.Dassen said that if the Match Act is passed after the U.S. midterm elections, it will accelerate the development of competitive technologies within China. He also expressed optimism that common sense would prevail. Reuters described the Match Act as a U.S. Congressional proposal to limit ASML's sales of DUV lithography equipment to China.

Dutch semiconductor equipment manufacturer ASML has raised its full-year sales forecast for the third consecutive quarter, expecting sales in 2026 to be between 44 billion and 45 billion euros. Net sales in the third quarter rose to 11.66 billion euros.ASML plans to increase the production capacity of its low numerical aperture extreme ultraviolet lithography equipment by 30% next year and stated that it will not be able to fully meet market demand in 2027 and 2028.

Dutch semiconductor equipment manufacturer ASML is expected to announce its Q3 financial report on October 14. Driven by demand for AI chips, the market anticipates significant growth in revenue and profits compared to the same period in 2025. Wall Street analysts estimate Q3 revenue at 11.73 billion euros, a year-on-year increase of 55%; earnings per share are projected to be 10.76 euros, nearly doubling from 5.49 euros in Q3 2025.ASML's Q2 revenue was 9.3 billion euros, higher than 7.7 billion euros in the same period of 2025, with net profit increasing from 2.3 billion euros to 2.9 billion euros. The company estimates Q3 revenue to be between 11 billion and 12 billion euros, with a gross margin of 55% to 57%, and has raised its full-year revenue outlook to between 43 billion and 45 billion euros.ASML is the only manufacturer in the world that commercializes extreme ultraviolet lithography equipment. Foundries such as TSMC, Intel, and Samsung rely on its equipment to manufacture advanced AI processors, and the company is also developing the next generation of High-NA EUV. Intel has processed over 1 million wafers using this equipment in research, testing, and manufacturing, while Samsung plans to introduce it into advanced DRAM mass production by 2028. The market expects ASML to increase the capacity of its existing EUV systems by about 30% by 2027.

According to the South China Morning Post, former U.S. officials stated that Chinese semiconductor factories have stockpiled hundreds of immersion lithography machines worth billions of dollars in recent years and urged Washington and its allies to stop further exports. The Centre for Technology & Statecraft, established in August 2026, released a report in late September estimating that by early 2026, Chinese wafer fabs had acquired approximately 343 immersion deep ultraviolet lithography systems. The report was co-authored by former U.S. export control official Nicholas Brown and former White House and Department of Commerce technology policy advisor Saif Khan.The report estimates that about 270 of these are ASML Twinscan NXT:1980i. The authors claim that although these devices lag behind extreme ultraviolet lithography machines, they can be modified for the production of 7-nanometer logic chips and advanced memory required for artificial intelligence processors (including Huawei's Ascend series). Chinese wafer fabs spent over $13 billion in 2024 to purchase about 90 NXT:1980i units, and acquired another 89 units in 2025. ASML disclosed that, by destination, China accounted for 41% of its net system sales in 2024, 33% in 2025, dropping to 19% in the first quarter of 2026 and 14% in the second quarter.Since September 2023, the Netherlands has required export licenses for the NXT:2000i and more advanced immersion deep ultraviolet equipment, effectively banning these models from being shipped to China; a year later, the licensing requirements were extended to the NXT:1980i, but this model can still be approved for shipment on a case-by-case basis.

Frank Heemskerk, Executive Vice President of the Dutch lithography machine company ASML, stated that the company currently does not sell any chip manufacturing equipment on the European continent. He said, "We are not selling anything in Europe at all. This is because there has been no investment in Europe, and there are no new chip factories being built here."Data shows that in the second quarter of this year, Europe's contribution to ASML's net system sales was zero, and by 2025, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa will account for 1%. In the first half of the year, South Korea was the company's largest market for equipment. Heemskerk stated that other countries are rolling out the red carpet to invite investment in factory construction, and currently about a quarter of ASML's R&D work is conducted in the United States.The European Union is reforming the "Chip Act," which will take effect in 2023. In May of this year, ASML signed an agreement with Tata Electronics of India to assist India in building semiconductor factories.

At the All-In Summit, Jensen Huang assessed that China will be able to produce its own advanced lithography systems by 2030. He also believes that once the technology matures, China has strong mass production capabilities, and it is only a matter of time before domestic equipment enters local wafer fabs.This assessment is more optimistic than that of Zeiss. Frank Rohmund, the head of Zeiss Semiconductor, recently stated that it may take about 15 more years for China to produce its own EUV lithography machines. Zeiss is a core supplier of ASML's EUV optical systems. The host asked about advanced lithography systems, without specifically limiting it to EUV, and Jensen Huang did not further specify that it was EUV in his response.

On September 8, TSMC announced that starting in 2030, it will adopt a new "high NA" extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine manufactured by ASML from the Netherlands for mass production. Both parties also stated that they will carry out industry-wide improvements on the high NA machines. ASML monopolizes the supply of EUV lithography machines used to form nanoscale ultra-fine circuits and will begin shipping high NA machines capable of drawing finer circuits starting in December 2023. Intel has already introduced high NA machines, while TSMC previously delayed mass production due to high costs and other reasons.TSMC and ASML will launch an industry-wide project to enlarge the photomask, which serves as the original circuit pattern, from the current 6-inch (approximately 15 centimeters) square to a 12-inch square, and develop high NA machines and related components corresponding to the large masks. A large mask pilot production line is planned to be established before 2031, and the high NA machines corresponding to the large masks are expected to reach a state suitable for advanced semiconductor production before 2033. Major semiconductor manufacturers and mask companies have expressed interest in participating.High NA machines can draw finer circuits, but the area that can be drawn in a single exposure is reduced to half that of traditional models, requiring multiple exposures for large chip circuits, which complicates the process and increases costs. Enlarging the photomask can expand the exposure area and reduce costs. TSMC Chairman and CEO C. C. Wei stated that the company will gather expertise from the entire industry to continuously promote technological innovation that makes advanced technology widely usable and convey its benefits.

ASML stated that it plans to collaborate with its major customers to develop new solutions capable of producing advanced chip manufacturing equipment to meet the demand for large data center chips designed by companies like NVIDIA.Currently, the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines produced by ASML, which are widely used, can manufacture chips with a maximum area of about 800 square millimeters. The next-generation "high numerical aperture" EUV lithography machine that ASML is about to launch will be able to produce finer chips. However, due to its use of smaller mask sizes, it is currently limited in the area of chips it can manufacture.ASML plans to showcase a pilot production line using larger mask sizes by 2031 and aims to enable this new technology for mass production by 2033.

According to the Financial Times, citing informed sources, Chinese memory chip manufacturers Changxin Storage and Yangtze Memory Technologies have purchased enough deep ultraviolet lithography machines (DUV) from ASML to meet their expansion plans for the next three years.

According to Bloomberg, UBS analysts expect that China's semiconductor manufacturing capabilities may struggle to make sufficient progress in the next decade to develop solutions that can truly replace ASML's cutting-edge EUV lithography technology. UBS analysts wrote in their report, "The stage they are currently at seems comparable to ASML's in 2004." Based on patent application activities, especially in the fields of light sources and laser subsystems, China's current technological maturity is roughly equivalent to ASML's level 15 years before it began mass production of EUV equipment.UBS also expects that China is likely to have the capability for mass production of immersion DUV lithography machines within the next two to five years. Although immersion DUV is not as advanced as EUV, it remains an indispensable tool in chip manufacturing. ASML's immersion DUV machines are priced at nearly $90 million, while EUV equipment costs over $200 million each. China is one of ASML's largest markets, but due to export restrictions, ASML is prohibited from selling EUV equipment to China. UBS pointed out that considering the yield and capacity gaps and regulatory restrictions, Chinese lithography equipment is unlikely to be applied overseas. An ASML spokesperson did not respond to requests for comment. The report is based on UBS analysts' predictive views, and actual progress will depend on industry dynamics.

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Citrini analyst Jukan posted on social media that the news of China's progress in DUV lithography technology is not particularly surprising, as the market had already formed certain expectations. He pointed out that The Information's related report only cited a professor from a transportation university in China speaking at an internal meeting in June and did not disclose more substantial information. Jukan believes that the sell-off reaction seen in semiconductor equipment stocks like ASML is an overreaction to this news.According to previous reports, The Information cited sources saying that a state-owned enterprise supported by Chinese state capital has begun mass production of domestically developed DUV (Deep Ultraviolet) lithography manufacturing equipment, marking a key progress in the localization of China's semiconductor industry.Insiders stated that the enterprise plans to produce about 5 domestically made DUV lithography machines by 2026 and expand to about 20 machines by 2027. Although there is still a gap compared to the 131 immersion DUV lithography systems delivered by Dutch lithography giant ASML last year, the entry of domestic equipment into mass production is seen by the market as an important breakthrough in the localization of China's chip supply chain.

According to a report by The Information citing informed sources, a Shanghai state-owned company whose name has not been disclosed has begun producing domestically-made immersion DUV lithography machines, planning to manufacture about 5 units this year and increase to about 20 units by 2027. The first batch of equipment will be delivered to major foundries such as SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, and ChangXin Technology, but the equipment still needs to undergo verification for accuracy, stability, and production line compatibility, a process that may take several months or even longer.Currently, most components of the equipment come from domestic sources, but some key parts still rely on Japan, and the performance and manufacturing quality lag behind ASML. In comparison, ASML is set to deliver about 131 immersion DUV lithography machines as early as 2025. Although domestic equipment has made the leap from prototype testing to small-scale production, there is still a significant gap before it can replace ASML on a large scale. Previously, Reuters reported that the U.S. is considering tightening restrictions on the export of lithography equipment to China and on maintenance services in China, and the delivery of domestic equipment coincides with this backdrop.