macroeconomics

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that due to the ongoing tensions in the Gulf region and Ukraine's increased attacks on Russian refineries, Brent crude oil prices remain above $100 per barrel. The rise in oil prices is transmitting through the global economy, pushing up production, service, and commodity costs, further permeating inflationary pressures into the economic system, and potentially increasing the risk of economic slowdown, thereby limiting market liquidity, especially for funds flowing into high-risk assets like Bitcoin.Darkfost pointed out that from a long-term trend perspective, when Brent crude oil remains above the annual average and enters a strong upward trend, BTC tends to show slower performance; conversely, when oil prices drop significantly, BTC is more likely to experience a recovery. However, he emphasized that this does not mean there is a simple direct causal relationship between oil prices and BTC; what truly affects risk assets is the macroeconomic environment accompanying high oil prices. In July of this year, oil prices briefly retreated, providing BTC with an opportunity to rise, but Brent crude has since rebounded significantly. Although funds may still rotate between different markets, driving BTC to continue its upward trend, the current macro environment is not conducive to sustained new liquidity flowing into the market.

On October 19, the State Council Information Office held a press conference, and the National Bureau of Statistics announced the economic data for the first three quarters. Preliminary calculations show that the gross domestic product for the first three quarters was 10,710.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% at constant prices.China's GDP annual rate for the third quarter was 4.5%, expected to be 4.40%, and the previous value was 4.30%.

Senior Crypto Research Strategist Matt Mena from cryptocurrency investment product issuer 21Shares stated that Bitcoin may regain $85,000 after macroeconomic uncertainties subside and further rise towards $90,000. If there is a pullback, the price could still drop to around $81,000. The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released, and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for October 27 to 28.Mena believes that last week's drop of Bitcoin below $85,000 has reflected some downside risks brought by higher inflation data, and after subsequent macro data is released, it may test the $85,000 resistance level again. The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September rose 0.3% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year, higher than economists' expectations of a 0.2% month-on-month increase. Since 2023, Bitcoin has averaged a 1.21% increase within 7 days after the core CPI exceeded expectations; Mena expects ETH to consolidate around $2,500 in the short term, then attempt to rise to $2,800 to $3,000, with a potential target of $130 for SOL by the end of this quarter.

The term premium has surged to levels not seen in over a decade in the past few weeks, driving a new round of selling in U.S. Treasuries and pushing yields to their highest in 24 years. Frank Rybinski, the head of macro strategy at Aegon Asset Management, stated that the rise in term premium indicates that market trends are persistent. Barclays noted that factors such as macroeconomic uncertainty and increased bond supply have collectively driven the recent rise.

According to QCP analysis, the global market opened under multi-asset pressure, with investors reducing risk exposure. The Nasdaq 100 index fell from 744.45 to 737.76 in pre-market trading, gold dropped from $4260 to $4147, Bitcoin decreased from $84500 to $82800, and the dollar index also declined, reflecting broad deleveraging rather than a shift to safe-haven assets.QCP stated that the main driving factor is geopolitical: the United States rejected a ceasefire condition proposal regarding the Strait of Hormuz last weekend, reigniting concerns over energy supply disruptions and driving a significant rise in Brent crude oil. This week, the U.S. macroeconomic calendar is packed. Following the recent interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, the PCE price index and non-farm payroll report are key data points, and the market remains highly sensitive to data that could influence further adjustments in monetary policy. In terms of crypto options, front-end implied volatility remains high, with traders pricing for downside protection. Spot Bitcoin ETF fund flows show hesitation amid broader clearing. Bitcoin's recent technical strength faces dual pressure from geopolitical uncertainty and macroeconomic data risks, with key support levels being closely monitored.

Next week's macro data focus will be on Friday's U.S. non-farm payroll report, including non-farm employment population, unemployment rate, and average hourly wage, which are directly related to the Federal Reserve's interest rate path and are important employment data ahead of the October monetary policy meeting. According to Beijing time, on Wednesday at 20:15, the U.S. September ADP employment figures will be released, and at 20:30, the U.S. August core PCE price index year-on-year will be announced; on Thursday at 20:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending September 26 will be released, and on Friday at 20:30, the U.S. September seasonally adjusted non-farm employment population and unemployment rate will be published.Regarding officials' speeches, on Thursday at 16:00, Bank of England Governor Bailey will speak, and at 21:30, European Central Bank President Lagarde will speak. Starting from early Wednesday, Federal Reserve officials will have a series of public activities; 2027 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, along with 2028 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Bullard, will speak in succession, and FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams will deliver a keynote speech at the University at Buffalo. On Thursday, Federal Reserve Governor Cook, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, and Richmond Fed President Barkin will speak in turn, and on Friday, Williams and Dallas Fed President Logan will still have public activities. In terms of U.S. stocks, Micron will release its earnings report after the market on Wednesday, and Nike will announce its latest quarterly earnings report on Thursday, with both companies corresponding to storage chips and consumer demand.

According to Bitcoin Magazine, Bill Miller IV, Chairman and CEO of Miller Value Partners, stated in an interview with Bitcoin Magazine that he has "never been more optimistic" about Bitcoin. He pointed out that although Bitcoin's market capitalization remains roughly at the peak level of the last cycle, the global financial situation has significantly worsened, and the gap between price and fair value is wider than ever.Miller elaborated on his "capital governance" argument, suggesting that Bitcoin should be viewed as the "denominator" of capital rather than an asset that needs to be valued, using the scale of the U.S. deficit compared to Bitcoin's total market capitalization as a reference framework for assessing fair value. He also addressed the phenomenon of gold outperforming Bitcoin, attributing it to "narrative lag," and discussed AI trading rotations as well as the global liquidity outflow from the Japanese and U.S. Treasury markets.Additionally, Miller talked about the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point interest rate hike, energy prices and inflation, the impact of immigration and the rule of law on the stability of capital flows, and whether U.S. companies can outperform debt, as well as why funds still cannot hold Bitcoin. He believes that Bitcoin is a form of capital denominator that does not rely on force for endorsement.

Strive CEO Matt Cole stated in an interview with Bitcoin Magazine that its benchmark scenario expects Bitcoin to achieve approximately 50% annualized returns by 2030. He presented a macro argument consisting of three parts, involving the U.S. dollar, long-term Treasury yields, and Bitcoin re-emerging as the "fastest horse" against gold.Matt Cole believes that when the Federal Reserve and the Treasury finally intervene to suppress long-term rates, the U.S. dollar will become the release valve, and scarce assets will surge significantly, allowing Bitcoin to once again play its role as the fastest asset against gold. The interview was hosted by Grace Remington and Sean Hagan and was published on September 15, 2026.

Jack Mallers, CEO of Strike, stated in the first episode of Bitcoin Magazine's television program that Bitcoin and artificial intelligence can help humanity regain time and re-engage in creation. He believes that currency is essentially an abstract form of human time and energy, and poor-quality currency erodes people's time and energy, forcing them to work longer hours to buy a house, go on vacation, or pursue artistic interests; whereas high-quality currency rewards time and energy, and Bitcoin and AI can liberate humanity from the "hard labor" of poor-quality currency. Mallers also cited the Wright brothers as an example, stating that when they invented the airplane, the United States was in a gold standard period.At the time of Mallers' remarks, Bitcoin was experiencing its best market performance in years. In August, Bitcoin rose about 25%, marking the strongest single-month performance since 2026 and the first August since 2021 to record positive returns, closing at around $78,000. This surge was driven by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's expansion of long-term bond repurchases, which lowered yields and triggered billions of dollars in short liquidations, making "devaluation trades" the focus of the market again, with the dollar weakening and the scale of U.S. Treasury debt reaching $40 trillion.Regarding the U.S. economy, Mallers stated that such a level of debt is unsustainable, and whether interest rates rise or fall is irrelevant; everything is inflationary and difficult to sustain. Data released last Friday showed that the core CPI in the U.S. for August, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% month-on-month, higher than expected. The U.S. is deeply mired in an affordability crisis, and the market widely expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this week to curb inflation.

Renowned trader Killa posted about the potential impact of the upcoming FOMC meeting on the cryptocurrency market this week. He stated that many people are very focused on macroeconomics, policies, and economic data to predict the next moves of assets, but Killa believes that "most macro narratives are just distractions." Killa noted that BTC often starts moving before the reasons become clear. By the time the macro environment shifts and the herd realizes it, Bitcoin has usually already completed its move. Correlation is often lagging. The market does not move because most people understand it. Most people understand it because the market has already moved.As a quantitative trader focused on BTC, Killa predicted the peak of this bull market in May 2025 and has over 200,000 followers on platform X. In mid-April, he shorted Bitcoin at $74,688 and switched to long during the market-wide decline on June 5.

According to CoinDesk, the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio has risen to 18.17, the highest level since January of this year. This means that one Bitcoin can now purchase just over 18 ounces of gold. The current Bitcoin price is approximately $81,000, which has not only increased in dollar terms but has also outperformed gold, a hard asset with a history of hundreds of years.The simultaneous rise of both assets stems from market concerns that governments may dilute debt through currency devaluation. With the exception of Switzerland, all major developed economies have a debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 100%, with the United States leading in terms of basic deficits. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Benset stated at the G20 finance ministers' meeting, "The world is awash in debt... The only way out of this predicament is growth."Bitcoin bull and SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci posted on X that Benset's remarks inadvertently promoted Bitcoin: "Benset stood in front of the G20 and said the world is awash in debt; that’s the entire selling point of Bitcoin. The 20 finance ministers just released the best Bitcoin advertisement of the year, even though they did not intend to." Bitcoin exists outside the traditional financial system and, unlike fiat currencies such as the dollar, yen, and euro, cannot be devalued by policy decisions.

Robert Mitchnick, head of digital assets at BlackRock, stated that the macro investment logic for Bitcoin is continuously strengthening. Even though regulatory issues have temporarily taken a backseat, fiscal concerns continue to drive demand for Bitcoin in the market.Mitchnick pointed out that the fiscal pressures in the current macro environment have become an important factor supporting Bitcoin's appeal, further reinforcing its narrative as a hedging tool. This perspective reflects institutions' ongoing focus on Bitcoin's long-term macro positioning.

Tonight at 20:30, we will once again welcome the U.S. July retail sales data, known for its "terrifying data" reputation. This data will directly reflect the consumption willingness and purchasing power of American residents, serving as a key barometer for determining whether the economy is experiencing a soft landing or a stall.If the data is significantly stronger than expected, it may reinforce the narrative that "the economy still has resilience," boosting the dollar and dampening interest rate cut expectations; if it is significantly weaker than expected, it may exacerbate recession concerns and further boost precious metals and risk-averse sentiment.

Bitfinex's latest report indicates that Bitcoin buying is returning, but the current rebound still mainly relies on improvements in the macroeconomic environment rather than catalysts from the cryptocurrency market itself.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the spot trading volume of Bitcoin on major exchanges has dropped by more than 75% compared to the end of 2024. Binance's trading volume in July exceeded $35 billion, far below the $246 billion in November 2024; Bybit plummeted by 85%, Coinbase fell by 61%, and OKX dropped by 67%, marking the lowest levels since the late 2023 bear market.The analyst pointed out that the escalating conflict between the U.S. and Iran is suppressing risk sentiment, inflation is raising concerns about high interest rates, and the stock market continues to absorb liquidity, all of which are unfavorable for speculative assets. Bitcoin's return to a bullish trend requires a shift in the macro landscape and a return of demand.

According to Jinshi reports, Russian President Putin stated that based on macroeconomic indicators, the key interest rate should be lowered.

According to Jinshi, the increase in ADP employment in the U.S. for June is the lowest since March, and the market focus is quickly shifting towards more macro indicators and external risk events. The statements from Federal Reserve officials have eased, leading to a collective rebound in the precious metals sector.